NDP/Green Nomination News

http://www.amherstdaily.com/index.cfm?sid=290539&sc=58

The NDP have a candidate in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, which is on the way to having a by-election unless a federal election happens. The nomination was going to be contested, but 2008 candidate Karen Olsen has stood aside for Mark Austin, a local farmer. The NDP is hoping to make gains of the back of the provincial NDP's victory in the recent election, which delivered Atlantic Canada's first NDP government, with the NS NDP winning 3 of the 5 ridings which make up CCMV.

http://www.westislandchronicle.com/article-382575-Greens-campaigning-two-elections-ahead.html
A few Green candidate names in Quebec I haven't seen before, Ryan Young in Lac St. Louis and Jonathan Lumer in Pierrefonds-Dollard. 2008 candidate Peter Graham, who ran in Lac St. Louis, is heading to the Eastern Townships to run in Compton-Stanstead.

LPCQ congrès

The LPCQ congrès is coming up this weekend, and any Young Liberal in the Ottawa-Gatineau area looking to go, just flip me an e-mail and I can get you a spot, wnorman AT connect.carleton.ca

Hope to see you in Quebec City!

Nomination news

http://www.madhunt.com/starbuck-greenpart-20090929.htm

The Greens have a candidate in Simcoe-Grey, Stuart Starbuck, a former town councillor.

http://www.thewhig.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1773194

Sticking with the Greens and rural Ontario, they will have a contested nomination in Leeds-Grenville. The 2 declared candidates aren't named, but 2008 candidate Jeanie Warnock will not be one of them.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/702396

And of course, the big news, with Gordon Landon stepping down as Tory candidate for Markham-Unionville after he admitted that federal funding to fight the recession was being withheld from the riding for the high crime of elected a Liberal MP.

Outremont update

Conflicting reports, although it might just be Google mistranslating. According to this: http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/200909/25/01-905592-martin-cauchon-gagne-outremont.php, Cauchon has "won" Outremont and "Michael Ignatieff has indeed agreed to allow Martin Cauchon to carry the Liberal banner in Outremont"

However, this report says that it has only been agreed that "Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has decided to allow an open nomination contest in the prized Montreal riding of Outremont."

If someone's whose French is better could take a look at the first article and get a better translation, that would be good.

Problem not solved?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/200909/25/01-905380-martin-cauchon-ce-sera-outremont-ou-rien.php

Outremont or nothing, says Cauchon.

Not Outremont nomination news

http://kingscorecord.canadaeast.com/news/article/798941

Only one candidate put his name forward for the Liberal nomination in Fundy Royal, Dave Delaney, a long-time Liberal activist and director of operations for Habitat for Humanity.

http://www.xtra.ca/public/Ottawa/Gaybourhood_candidates_prepare_for_election-7505.aspx
This article examining the Ottawa Centre race says that the Conservatives have " three or four candidates that have expressed very serious interest and have requested nomination papers". Last I had heard around the rumour mill was that party HQ was supportive of Bruce being the candidate, but the riding association is not a huge fan of him and was attempting to recruit other candidates, but that Bruce was the only one to have offically declared.

http://woodstocksentinelreview.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1763621
In Oxford, former Marijuana Party candidate and past independent provincial candidate Jim Bender has declared for the Liberal nomination.

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/698505
And a non candidate for the NDP, with former MPP and twice failed federal candidate Marilyn Churley ruling out a third run in Beaches-East York, with her eyes turning towards her original job, municipal politics.

Why party in-fighting is a bad thing

Here is the front page of National Newswatch right now:


On the left, articles outlying Ignatieff's economic plans in a fairly good light, and Ignatieff delivering some solid policy, something he has previous been criticized for not delievering enough of (and not just outside the party). On the right, 3 articles about party in-fighting. No bets on which set of articles gets more hits. Tous Ensemble, anyone?

On appointments, and Liberal women candidates: A stat breakdown

Much fuss has been made about the seeming appointment of Nathalie Le Prohon for the Liberal nomination in Outremont. Those who have defended the appointment of Le Prohon for the nomination say that is important for the party to get more female candidates in winnable ridings. Without commenting on the Coderre-Cauchon battle, I want to use it as an opportunity to examine the ideas of running more female candidates for the party, and if the party is actually putting female candidates in winnable ridings (one of the oft-heard complaints about the appointment system and any quotas, official or unofficial to get at least 33% female candidates is that women will get appointed in unwinnable ridings just to get the total number of female candidates up).



First up, the use of the appointment system. Dion did not hesitate to use the appointment system at times, with mixed results. I can't find any sort of list of candidates who in the last election were appointed directly by the leader, but off the top of my head, I do seem to think that Dion used his appointment power mostly to instal female candidates, sometimes with positive results in safe Liberal seats (such as Kirsty Duncan and Michelle Simpson) and other times not as positively (see Joan Beatty in Desnethé – Missinippi – Churchill River). Since Dion publicly called for at least 33% female candidates in his leadership platform (and exceeded that goal) lets start by taking a look at how many female candidates ran in seats that could be considered "winnable" in the 2008 election. I'm going to set the "winnable" threshold here at 15%. So here are the seats that the Liberals came within 15% of winning in 2006, with those that had female candidates in 2008 in bold:



(Note: Ridings not in order of margin)




Hamilton East – Stoney Creek
London – Fanshawe
Burnaby – Douglas
Sault Ste. Marie
Parkdale – High Park
Western Arctic
Hamilton Mountain
Trinity – Spadina
Burnaby – New Westminster
Ottawa Centre
Victoria
Timmins – James Bay
Halifax

Toronto – Danforth
Ahuntsic
Brossard – La Prairie
Papineau
Jeanne-Le Ber
Gatineau
Chicoutimi – Le Fjord
Brome – Missisquoi
Vaudreuil – Soulanges
Alfred-Pellan

Parry Sound – Muskoka
Winnipeg South
Glengarry – Prescott – Russell
St. Catharines
Tobique – Mactaquac
Fleetwood – Port Kells
Simcoe North
Ottawa – Orléans
Barrie
Kitchener – Conestoga
Halton
Peterborough
Burlington
Ancaster – Dundas – Flamborough – Westdale
Niagara Falls
Northumberland – Quinte West
Edmonton Centre
Whitby – Oshawa
Essex
Avalon
Sarnia – Lambton
St. John's South – Mount Pearl
Ottawa West – Nepean
Kildonan – St. Paul (Although Lesley Hughes was forced to withdraw, she was still the Liberal candidate at the start of the election, so I'll count it)
Cambridge
St. John's East
Chatham-Kent – Essex
Charleswood – St. James – Assiniboia
Port Moody – Westwood – Port Coquitlam
Haldimand – Norfolk
Lambton – Kent – Middlesex
South Shore – St. Margaret's
Pontiac
Saanich – Gulf Islands
Kamloops – Thompson – Cariboo
Oshawa
New Westminster – Coquitlam



And seats in which Liberal incumbents retired, again with ridings which ran female candidates to try and hold the ridings (which due to the incumbency, I will count all of them as "winnable")


Random—Burin—St. George's
Egmont
Fredericton
LaSalle—Émard
Brampton West
Etobicoke North
Huron—Bruce
Newmarket—Aurora
Nickel Belt
Scarborough Southwest
Nunavut




I'm also going to include Mississauga-Streetsville in the count, due to it being a Liberal held seat before Khan crossed the floor and was defeated by woman Liberal candidate Bonnie Crombie.



So on the whole then, we have 73 "winnable" ridings without an incumbent Liberal MP running in 2008, and of that 73, the Liberal Party ran female candidates in 25 of them, so of the 73 ridings which could have been considered "winnable" for the party in 2008, 34% had female candidates in 2008, almost exactly the quota. This would indicate that the party did not, in fact, in the last election, throw loads of women into unwinnable ridings, but on the flip side, I'm going to look at some of the "lost cause" ridings from 2006, and see how many of them ran female candidates. If the percentage of women in "lost cause" ridings is significantly higher than then 34% of winnable ridings which had female candidates, then those who complain about the party offering female sacrificial lambs might have a point. In order to have valid comparisons and an equal sample size, I'll take the 73 ridings in which the Liberal Party performed the worst in terms of percentage of the vote in 2006, and again bold the ones which had female candidates in 2008.


Saint-Bruno – Saint-Hubert
Drummond
Provencher
Rosemont – La Petite-Patrie
Prince George – Peace River
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
Nanaimo – Cowichan
Beauharnois – Salaberry
Louis-Hébert
Westlock – St. Paul
Fort McMurray – Athabasca
Laurentides – Labelle
Edmonton – Sherwood Park
Manicouagan
La Pointe-de-l'Île
Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup
Yorkton – Melville
Abitibi – Témiscamingue
Calgary Centre-North
Calgary East
Argenteuil – Papineau – Mirabel
Kootenay – Columbia
Sherbrooke
Haute-Gaspésie – La Mitis – Matane – Matapédia (It should be noted that in this riding the performance of female candidate Nancy Charest turned this from a "no hope" riding into one of the top Liberal targets in Quebec, and Charest was one of the very first Liberal candidates to be nominated for the next election)
Bas-Richelieu – Nicolet – Bécancour
Cypress Hills – Grasslands
Vancouver Island North
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
Battlefords – Lloydminster
Abbotsford
Skeena – Bulkley Valley
Longueuil – Pierre-Boucher
Laurier – Sainte-Marie
Saint-Jean
Elmwood – Transcona
Saskatoon – Rosetown – Biggar
Saint-Maurice – Champlain
Québec
Calgary Southwest
Portage – Lisgar
Chambly – Borduas
Lethbridge
Trois-Rivières
Mégantic – L'Érable
Berthier – Maskinongé
Richmond – Arthabaska
Calgary Southeast
Beauport – Limoilou
Selkirk – Interlake
Joliette
Saint-Hyacinthe – Bagot
Wild Rose
Yellowhead
Peace River
Rivière-du-Nord
Macleod
Wetaskiwin
Red Deer
Terrebonne – Blainville
Montmorency – Charlevoix – Haute-Côte-Nord
Charlesbourg – Haute-Saint-Charles
Verchères – Les Patriotes
Repentigny
Medicine Hat
Montcalm
Lévis – Bellechasse
Beauce
Roberval – Lac-Saint-Jean
Vegreville – Wainwright
Louis-Saint-Laurent
Crowfoot
Lotbinière – Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier
Jonquière – Alma

So of the 73 ridings in which the party did worst in in 2006 (so the "least winnable") the Liberals ran female candidates in 26 of them, or 36% of the no hope seats. This would seem to indicate that the Liberals, in the last election at least, did not stack women into hopeless ridings just to boost numbers. I don't have the time to breakdown the middle 162 ridings that are between "winnable" and "no hope", but I would be surprised if the percentage of female candidates in those ridings are significantly higher or lower than the mid 30% range.

I also think it is worth noting that of the few seats the Liberals did gain at the last election (Avalon, St. John's South-Mount Pearl, Papineau, Brossard-La Prarie, Parkdale-High Park, Mississauga-Streetsville) the gender split between the victorious Liberals was 50-50, with Bonnie Crombie, Siobhan Coady, and Alexandra Mendes picking up seats for the ladies with Justin Trudeau, Scott Andrews, and Gerard Kennedy winning for the males.

So with the retrospective done, lets look forward and see how Iggy is doing. I think it is notable that in the 3 ridings (at least that are known publically) where appointments have either been done or are a fait accompli (Halton, Ahuntsic, and now Outremont) a female candidate has been named (Deborah Gillis, Noushing Eloyan, and now Nathalie De Prohon). In terms of total nominations, using Pundits Guide as a source, the Liberals have 82 nominated candidates, with 33 women, for a 40% female total, above the 33% quota. I'm going to break it down further, and examine how many nominated candidates we have in "winnable ridings" (ridings we lost by 15% or less) and how many of these nominated candidates are women. Once again, ridings with female candidates are in bold, and I'll include Outremont and Ahuntsic in these as well.

Sudbury

Trinity-Spadina

Vancouver Kingsway

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Thunder Bay-Rainy River

Outremont

Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing

Ahuntsic

Haute-Gaspesie-La Mits-Matane-Matapedia

Brome-Missisquoi

Saint Lambert

Alfred-Pellan

Kitchener-Waterloo

Mississauga-Erindale

Oak Ridges-Markham

Kitchener Centre

London West

Saanich-Gulf Islands

Kenora

Pontiac

Ottawa-Orleans

Haldimand-Norfolk

Brant

Thornhill

Ottawa West-Nepean

Essex

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Saint Boniface

Halton

Newmarket-Aurora

Winnipeg South

Two special cases for this as well, Burlington was supposed to have Paddy Torsney acclaimed, but the meeting has been delayed, and Jeanne-Le Ber, a top Quebec target which is rumoured to have a star female candidate appointed ala Ahuntsic/Outremont. Anyway, the bulk of the close/"winnable" ridings have nominated candidates already, 31 by my count, and of these 31, 14 have female candidates, for an impressive 45% of nominated candidates in winnable ridings being female. That number is more impressive when you consider the 40% total for overall nominated candidates includes a number of incumbant MP's, meaning that if all these nominated candidates were successful, the total female percentage of the Liberal caucus would see a spike in female membership.

This blog post isn't designed to comment on the merits or lack thereof of appointing candidates, and female candidates in particular, but I do hope that this breakdown can eliminate the myth of Liberal female candidates being mostly sacrifical lambs, and to celebrate that the party thus far has done a decent job of providing winnable ridings for female candidates.

It will be Nathalie Le Prohon in Outremont

These seem pretty definitive:

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales-2009/partis/parti-liberal/200909/21/01-904018-ignatieff-met-un-terme-aux-ambitions-de-cauchon-dans-outremont.php

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5h25i3bfQfHxEWC1azTTTCBWDxuAg

http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2009/09/20/002-cauchon-coderre.shtml

Tory secret agenda on Afghanistan?

This doubles as nomination news: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/the-liberals-wanted-him-the-tories-won/article1292241/

Former ambassador to Afghanistan Chris Alexander will run for the Tories in Ajax-Pickering, apparently after declining to run for the Liberals over disagreeing with the party stance on Afghanistan.

As recently as six weeks ago Canada's former ambassador to Afghanistan met with Mr. Ignatieff for what party sources said were talks about a Liberal candidacy – a conversation culminating with Mr. Ignatieff stating the party would not budge from its support for ending Canada's combat role in Afghanistan in 2011.

...He said he at no time demanded the Liberals change their policy on ending Canada's combat role as a condition for running for them. He said he would not challenge a decision made by Parliament. The 2011 deadline was approved both by the Liberals and the Conservatives.
Mr. Alexander has said there should not be a deadline for terminating combat operations and there should be more international troops on the ground.

So here is the thing. He said he won't run for the Liberals because he is against the Liberal policy of ending the combat role in 2011....which is a policy also shared by the Conservatives, at least in theory. Did the Harper Tories cut a deal on a crucial policy issue to land their first star candidate? Are the Conservatives planning on re-thinking the combat mission if re-elected?

Liberals cruse to victory in St. Paul's

Just got back from Eric Hoskins victory party. Hoskins and McGuinty both gave great speeches. For all the hype about "the Liberals facing a tight race" and "the HST having voters in an uproar", Eric Hoskins ran a good strong campaign, and the voters of St. Paul's saw through Tim Hudak and Sue Ann Levy's hypocrisy on the HST issue (one particularly good piece of lit from the Hoskins campaign featured numerous quotes by Hudak speaking in favour of an HST, and comparing these statements with critical articles from The Star and Maclean's saying that Hudak's flip flop on the HST was entirely manufactured outrage) and demonstrated that the PC's have yet to find a way to speak to urban voters. Eric Hoskins will be a great addition to an already strong Liberal team.

What Tim Hudak and Sue-Ann Levy get wrong

Lots of good tidbits and research by the St. Paul's Young Liberals on the Reality Check section of the website. Some highlights:

http://spyl.ca/reality-check/affordablehousing

September 10th, Sue-Ann Levy was at it again. This time telling an all candidates debate audience that “affordable housing is not the answer…. put the homeless into apartments.”
“There’s plenty of apartments available here in the city; vacancy is at an all time high,” she stated.

FACT: Toronto’s vacancy rate is not at an all-time high. It has been consistently dropping since early 2007 and currently stands at a low 2.4% (CMHC Report, June 2009). In fact, the Globe & Mail has predicted a “rental crunch on the horizon” (01/04/2009).

FACT: Experts agree that a comprehensive strategy is needed to address poverty and homelessness. Putting the homeless into unavailable apartment units does not qualify as such. On the other hand, the McGuinty Government has adopted a broad approach which includes: $600 million investment in Affordable Housing, that will help to repair and retrofit existing units and ensure that that families in need live in a safe, clean environment.The Poverty Reduction Strategy which is a long term plan to address the root causes of poverty.


And for a self described fiscal conservative, Tim Hudak has hit up the tax-payers from everything for beer and wings to trips to Las Vegas to TV's.

http://spyl.ca/reality-check/tims-top-ten-expenses

Some of my favs:

On April 27, 2002, while wining and dining Premier Harris’ Chief of Staff (Hudak’s now-wife, Debbie Hutton), Tim Hudak billed the taxpayers of Ontario for $134 for a room at the Kittling Ridge Winery in his riding.

A new television is a big expense a family (or, for that matter, a student!) may scrimp and save for a long time to purchase. But when Hudak’s staff wanted a larger set, they simply walked into Future Shop with a government credit card and charged the taxpayers $575 for the latest model. Their justification? To watch the parliamentary channel while in the Ministry offices. They went as far as having a bureaucrat sign an affidavit swearing that the TV was in the office and was in good working order. (No word on what they were actually watching.)
(source: St. Catharines Standard, December 6, 2002)

Viva Las Vegas! While Minister of Northern Development and Mines, Tim Hudak spent your tax money to go to a conference in Las Vegas with Vice-Presidential Candidate Dick Cheney.

Tourism Minister Tim Hudak went on a province-wide junket in the summer of 2001. In 145 days between April 1 and August 23, 2001 Hudak and his staff racked up $23,633.55 in expenses ranging from meals and hotels to plants, gum, doughnuts and napkins.

While in this one Levy waxes nostalgic for the days when I was missing class thanks to the Harris union-busting and getting a family doctor was harder for a lower-middle class family:

http://spyl.ca/reality-check/mikeharris
On August 26th, PC Candidate Sue Ann Levy went on Metro morning and told listeners that “Mike Harris was good for those times”.
Actually…. He wasn’t.
The Harris record is divisive and negative, and then Premier Harris along with then Minister Hudak, worked together to sow strife all throughout our province.
They fired 6,200 Nurses;
They closed 28 Hospitals;
Cut a Billion dollars from education and foisted Teacher Strikes onto Schools;
Eliminated rent control, and cancelled affordable housing initiatives;
and fired Food and Meat inspectors which lead to the Walkerton tragedy and they Alymer meat scandal.
Sue Ann Levy needs to get her facts straight.
Harris times were Horrible times.

Back to school nominations

Making my first nomination update of the year from the Loeb building Bpapm computer lab, huzzah.

http://www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1751704

In the bellweatherish riding of Peterborough, three time provincial NDP candidate Dave Nickle is eyeing a federal run, after 2008 candidate Steve Sharpe said he wouldn't take another crack at it. The local nomination meeting is scheduled for Sept. 28.

http://miramichileader.canadaeast.com/news/article/790960

The Miramichi Liberal nomination race gets less crowded, with former mayor and MLA John McKay dropping out.

http://www.northumberlandtoday.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1736434

Back to the NDP and the Peterborough area, 23 year old Waterloo student Patrick Clark will seek the party's nomination for Northumberland-Quinte West, the first declared candidate.

http://newsdurhamregion.com/news/article/135330

Sticking with the NDP, local CAW leader Chris Buckley will seek the NDP nomination for Oshawa. The riding is often home to close political fights, with 2004 having an extremely close 3 way race, with the victorious Conservatives picking the seat up from the Liberals, but being separated from the third place Liberals by only 1305 votes, and only 463 votes ahead of the second place NDP. The Tories held the riding from the NDP with still close but by no means razor thin margins in 2006 and 2008 as well. The riding is symbolically important for the NDP, being the former seat of party leader Ed Broadbent. (Although it is notable that Broadbent himself faced several close races, only winning the seat by 15 votes on his first election to it in 1968, and almost being knocked off as MP in 1972, 1984, and 1988, while not being a nailbiter, was a cakewalk)

That great Tory accountability on the economy

That the Tories, and John Baird in particular, are economic mismanagers who abuse the public service and make a mockery out of any 2006 era claims to open and accountable government should be no surprise by now, but here we are:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/transport-canada-fictitiously-expensing-millions/article1286306/

Federal public servants at Transport Canada are routinely filing millions of dollars in expenses – including overtime, salaries and computers – toward a construction project that doesn't exist.
Further, The Globe and Mail has learned that public servants who object to the scheme are routinely overruled by their managers...Though the pipeline remains in limbo, the department has kept the fund alive year after year, using it to cover millions in expenses that have nothing to do with the pipeline...

"To fictitiously spend money on a project that's not going anywhere, I don't think is appropriate,” said captain Daniel Slunder, who has spent most of his career working at Transport Canada's Ottawa headquarters.

Baird apparently is going to launch a probe, and given past Tory internal examinations, I think we can start the countdown towards the Tories lambasting "Liberal appointed bureaucrats" and call it a day.

Cindy Duncan McMillian wins Pontiac, and Nova Scotia newa

Just came in now that McMillan will once again challenge Lawrence Cannon as Liberal candidate. I endorsed Greg Fergus last night, but this was in no way a slight to Ms. McMillan who ran a good hard campaign against Cannon last time around, and who I believe can defeat Cannon. I hope to get a chance to get out to Pontiac at least once during a general election.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Columnists/1142228.html
This article looks at election buzz in Nova Scotia, and has a few nuggets. Former Liberal MP Robert Thibault looks to run for the West Nova nomination, but he may face a challenge. Liberals are also gearing up in South Shore-St. Margaret’s, with former MP and current provincial party president Derek Wells running, as well as software engineer Mark Delory, with previous provincial candidate Rick Welsford considering a run. For the NDP, former MLA Kevin Deveaux is eyeing a run in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, currently held by Liberal Mike Savage.

Greg Fergus for Pontiac

I'll be hoping to go 3/3 with local nomination campaigns I've been at tomorrow by helping out a candidate across the river in Quebec, Greg Fergus in Pontiac. Pontiac is a swing riding, being won by the party which has formed government since 1980, and one of the few ridings in Quebec that has switched hands in the province but not have been held by the Bloc. I believe that Greg Fergus, who has made a carrer out of building bridges and moving forward, in the private, not-for-profit, political, and public sectors. I believe his personable nature, dedication to Liberal values, and personal strength make him the best candidate to take on Lawrence Cannon and the Harper Conservatives in Pontiac. We need a strong Quebec team if we want to form government, and I know that Greg will be a crucial part of that team.

Late nomination news

Renee Hetherington has won the Saanich-Gulf Islands Liberal nomination, while Jim Burrows crushed 2008 candidate Tracy Parsons in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, winning 175 of 206 votes.

Nomination news, early addition

A couple of Liberal nominations tonight, but here is some other news:

http://www.bclocalnews.com/news/59075377.html

Micheal Crawford is running for the NDP in Kamloops – Thompson – Cariboo again. Crawford ran strong campaigns in both 2008 and 2006, but was unable to overcome the Tory candidate, even with a collapse of the Liberal vote in 2008. The article also says 2008 Green candidate Donovan Cavers will be the Green candidate again. No word on a Liberal yet.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/tri_city_maple_ridge/mapleridgenews/news/58602817.html

Staying in BC and the NDP, David Murray, a parks and services employee with the City of Port Coquitlam has declared for the NDP nomination in Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission. The riding saw close NDP-Conservative races in 2004 an 2006, with the Tories narrowly holding, before expanding their lead on the back of a collapse in the Liberal vote, which saw the Liberals sink to 4th in the riding.

http://www.xtra.ca/public/Vancouver/Ignoring_queer_vote_the_way_to_win_Vancouver_Centre_Tory_candidate-7475.aspx

More from BC, this article describes Rachel Greenfeld as the "newly anointed" Tory candidate, as well as being critical of her statements that she doesn't need the support of the queer community to win the riding. Vancouver Centre has one of the largest gay communities in the country.

http://news.guelphmercury.com/News/article/532166

And getting out of BC, the Green nomination campaign in Guelph, arguably the most Green Party friendly riding in the country is starting to roll, with two candidate looking to replace Mike Nagy; Russell Ott, a 23 year old originally from Guelph and former class representitive at Brock U, and Bill Hulet, a U of G library employee and former Green candidate both federally and provincially.

http://www.arrondissement.com/tout-get-communiques/t1/pc1/u10248-massimo-pacetti-declare-candidat-parti-liberal-canada-dans-saint-leonard-saint-michel

The Liberal Quebec machine rolls on, with incumbant MP Massimo Pacetti was renominated in Saint-Léonard – Saint-Michel.

Late breaking nomination news

David Bertschi in Ottawa-Orelans. Kim Rudd in Northumberland-Quinte West. Doug Ferguson in London West. Pretty straightforward.

Eastern Ontario news, and a star recruit in Quebec

http://www.mykawartha.com/news/article/41779



City councillor Pat Warren looks to be acclaimed for the Liberals in Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock on Sept. 17th. HKLB was and generally is seen as being a safe Tory seat federally (the Liberals only won it in the 90's thanks to a divided right, usually only getting mid-30% support while the PC's/Reform-Alliance split the vote) and normally would be an afterthought, but it will be interesting to see if John Tory's disastrous foray into the riding provincially still has any negative local impact on the Tory brand.




http://www.westcarletonthisweek.com/article/15890



The Ottawa area riding of Carleton-Mississipi Mills gears up, with 2008 candidates in different stages of debating running again. NDP candidate Paul Arbour is taking a pass, Jake Cole is thinking about running again, and Liberal Justin MacKinnon has yet to decide.

http://fr.canoe.ca/infos/quebeccanada/archives/2009/09/20090910-173956.html
This article names a candidate for a high-profile Quebec riding. According to an article in Le Devoir, Ahuntsic was one of three Montreal ridings (alongside Outremont and Jeanne Le Ber) that would have high profile candidate appointments shortly before the election, and now it would seem that Bordeaux-Cartierville councillour Noushig Eloyan, of Vision Montreal will be the Liberal candidate in Ahuntsic. Eloyan formerly served as leader of the opposition on city council and borough mayor.

Fear of a Bloc planet

The Tories are trying to stir up the ghosts of coalitions past, but I'm a little more scared by this:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/693808

So for those of you playing at home kids, thats half a million jobs lost in a year, a $100 billion+ deficit, 9% unemployment, and a plan to get the economy and the books back on track that basically consists of the Homer Simpson-sque strategy of hiding under a pile of coats until the problem goes away.

Pre-big day nomination news

The big news will be coming tomorrow, when the Ottawa Centre nomination gets decided, but to tide you over before that, here we go:



http://www.canada.com/news/Opposition+dancing+election+tune/1973312/story.html


The BQ, who looks like they won't prop up the Tories as some had thought, say they have "nominated candidates in 67 out of Quebec's 75 ridings". Of course, as Alice from Pundits Guide has pointed out, a party's definition of nominated can differ from the legal definition, so the 67 number probably means a combination of including all incumbants who are running again, already nominated candidates, active nomination races, and identified nomination candidates.



http://www.bclocalnews.com/vancouver_island_south/saanichnews/news/57795972.html



Green Party leader Elizabeth May will face off against Victoria resident and past NDP/Green provincial candidate Stuart Hertzog for the Saanich-Gulf Island nomination on Sept. 19th. Liberals will pick a candidate on the 12th, while the NDP, who have yet to have names publically come forward, will nominate in October.



http://www.tbnewswatch.com/News/?cid=65026



News of a candidate not running in Northern Ontario, as 2008 Tory candidate Richard Neumann is taking a pass at Thunder Bay – Rainy River.



http://lfpress.ca/perl-bin/publish.cgi?x=articles&p=274431&s=politics



A few days after incumbant NDP MP Irene Mathyssen was re-nominated, a Liberal challenger has emerged, with London city councillor Roger Caranci annoucing he will be going for the Liberal nomination in London-Fanshawe. The article is chock full of London-area news for every party that I hadn't seen before.


For the Conservatives, Susan Truppe, director of sales and marketing at a London hotel has filled papers for London North Centre, with lawyer Chris Tochar considering a run. For the NDP, Peter Ferguson will probably seek the NDP nomination again in London West. And for the Liberals, Ken Filson and Emery Huszka will duke it out for the Chatham-Kent-Essex nomination.

http://lafrontiere.canoe.ca/webapp/sitepages/content.asp?contentid=106941&id=288

The Liberals will need to get a new candidate in Abitibi-Témiscamingue, as former MP Gilbert Barrette, (elected in a 2003 by-election before being defeated in 2004, Barrette also ran in 2008) has expressed a desire to move on from politics. The riding has had been an interesting one over the years, going from Creditiste stronghold (being held by Réal Caouette from 1962 to 1976, and then an additional few years by his son Gilles), then going Liberal for a term in the 80's before the Mulroney PC's picked it up, but not without a strong challenge from NDP star candidate and future Parti Quebecois cabinet minister Remy Trudel who came within 4,000 votes of winning the seat in 1988, then breaking BQ with the exception of Barrette's by-election victory.

Phil Fontaine, former National Chief, Assembly of First Nations endorses Scott Bradley

"I worked closely with Scott as he led the charge within his company to put aboriginal issues on the corporate agenda. His genuine commitment to Canada's aboriginal community reflects his commitment and passion to the community as a whole. Scott would be a tremendous advocate and champion for Ottawa Centre, and we would be fortunate to have him as our Member of Parliament"

Phil Fontaine.

The nomination day is tomorrow, and we need Scott, a genuine, longtime Liberal, for a change in Ottawa Centre.

News from out east

http://telegraphjournal.canadaeast.com/front/article/783668
From New Brunswick, Paul Zed is still not publically declaring to try and win back his old seat of Saint John, and the nomination race in Miramachi is now a 4-way battle between Kweith Vickers, former executive assistant to Hubbard; John McKay, a former mayor of Newcastle and MLA; Veronique Arsenault, former executive director of the Miramichi Chamber of Commerce; and Rob Hutchison.

Some news from BC

http://www2.canada.com/northshorenews/news/story.html?id=e3918f9c-50c9-42d0-b41a-e4bd82f0ba1f&p=1
Two Liberal bits in this article from out in B.C., with Daniel Veniez almost certain to be nominated as the Liberal candidate in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country on the 13th, and former North Vancouver MP Don Bell "seriously considering" running for the Liberal nomination in that riding.

The Tory record: Half a million more unemployed

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/691604

Nearly 500,000 more Canadians will be unemployed this Labour Day than last, and while economists say the recession is over, job losses are expected to continue well into next year, and many of those who lost their jobs don't qualify for Employment Insurance.

Canadians deserve better, and we can do better.

Another day, more nomination news

Two great Liberal candidates won their respective nominations in the Ottawa area last night; Steve MacKinnion in Gatineau, and Julie Bourgeois in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell. I was particularly pleased with Julie's victory, as I was out in GPR last night to support her campaign. Moving on to other news:

http://www.newsdurhamregion.com/news/article/134870
The Greens have a candidate in Pickering-Scarborough East, Dell technology marketing manager Kevin Smith. 2008 Tory candidate George Khouri is also "absolutely considering" running again but is not fully decided. The riding is held by Liberal Dan McTeague.

http://www.medicinehatnews.com/content/view/131770/65/
Out west in the Tory stronghold of Medicine Hat, 2008 Liberal candidate and riding association president Bev Botter is undecided about running again, but long time NDP candidate Wally Regehr will not be running again.

Increasingly relevant nomination news

http://www.jewishtribune.ca/TribuneV2/index.php/200909012033/Strong-Liberal-candidate-hopes-to-run-federally-in-Thornhill.html

This article mentions Karen Mock and no other candidate as going after the Liberal nomination for Thornhill (and the Thornhill nomination facebook event page explictly mentions Mock) so I think Mock might be a pretty solid lock for a riding that has to be fairly high up on the Ontario target list. The article also says that "Thus far, the NDP (Simon Strelchik) and Green Party (Norbert Koehl) candidates have not changed.", which could mean either that both are planing on running again, or that neither the Greens nor NDP have found other candidates yet.

http://www.theguardian.pe.ca/index.cfm?sid=283443&sc=98
Former PEI Premier and 2008 Liberal candidate Keith Milligan will not be running for the Egmont nomination. Rumoured candidates include former nomination candidateAngie Cormier, Brenda Hackett, former president of the Liberal party in P.E.I., businessman Warren Ellis and Kelly Ellis, a former assisstant to former MP Joe McGuire. Interestingly this article omits the names of Matt McGuire, Joe McGuire's son, and Liberal MLA's Janice Sherry and Rob Henderson, who were previously rumoured to be considering a run.

http://www.stratfordbeaconherald.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1726749
And this will make commenter penlan happy, news out of Perth-Wellington. 2008 candidate and riding association president Sandra Gardiner won't be running again, but apparently:

"The Perth-Wellington Liberals have a potential candidate who has already filed nomination papers. Ms. Gardiner would not divulge the person's name.

"Once they pass the green light process we'll certainly be making that person's name public knowledge," she said.
There have been "musings" from others interested in running as well, she said.

http://lejournaldequebec.canoe.ca/journaldequebec/politique/federale/archives/2009/09/20090902-215938.html
And the Tories failed to recruit a star candidate in Quebec, as Pierre-Hugues Boisvenu, President of the Association of Families with people killed or missing (the name sounds better in French) declined an offer to run for the Conservatives in an attempt to bolster their anti-crime stock. Boisvenu has also declined offers before from the Parti Quebecois and ADQ.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/blogs/rabson/Gauntlet-down-Nominations-on-56746007.html
This article examines the readiness of the various parties in Manitoba, and identifies Bob Sopuck in Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette, taking over from the retiring Inky Mark and Wally Daudrich in Churchill for the Conservatives as being nominated, although I haven't seen anything to make these official. The article mentions that Winnipeg Centre NDP MP Pat Martin's nomination meeting on the 25th "has been cancelled due to the ongoing provincial leadership race. Martin says if there is a "snap election" he will have a "snap" nomination meeting." The provincial leadership race being the reason for cancelling is interesting, as more than a few people have suggessted that Martin might be interested in running for provincial party leadership.

http://netnewsledger.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=279:ndp-in-tbsn-set-nomination-meetings&catid=35:northwestern-ontario-regional-news&Itemid=83
The NDP in Thunder Bay-Superior North will hold a rolling nomination meeting on the 8th and 9th. Incumbant Bruce Hyer will almost certainly be acclaimed.

Those troublesome "experts" derail another Tory talking point

http://nbbusinessjournal.canadaeast.com/transcript/article/780367

The big Tory talking point right now is that an election would damage stimulus spending, wreck the economy, etc.

Inconvenient then, that the actually people who know what they are talking about shoot this talking point down.

Conservative warnings that an election could derail the recovery are being met with hoots of derision from the opposition and mostly skepticism from the experts who should know - economists..."The Canadian economy is the sum of a heck of a lot of decisions, by investors, by businesses, by consumers across Canada, in the U.S. and abroad, so how well the economy is going to do probably depends a lot more (on other factors) than what's going on in the electoral scene in Canada," said Finn Poschmann, an economist with the C.D. Howe Institute think tank.

The warnings may make for good politics, but they are in general bad economics, the economists say. At best, they may impact the economy in theory and on the margins, they add...However, the effect on Ottawa's $12-billion infrastructure stimulus designed to fight the recession would be minimal, if at all, he (TD Bank economist Don Drummond) added.
"This would affect only a certain type of infrastructure spending that was coming up for approval, but a lot of it would have already been approved, as the (government) said in their last report," he pointed out.

Of course, experts have also demolished Tory positions on climate change, crime, government accountability, isotopes, and others with little to no effect, so look to see plenty more of this talking point.

Richmond Street Liberals

The Ottawa Centre Liberal nomination has been set for Sept 9th, and to celebrate, I went out to a Scott Bradley meet and greet on Richmond Road.

I think the location of the event was telling. So often we as Liberals, and particularly in Ottawa Centre, look to Wellington Street as the centre of the universe. We think of Ottawa Centre as being entirely inside the Queensway, filled with other politicos with the same-mind set and background. We don't see Ottawa Centre as a riding of young families, immigrants, students, the GLBTQ community, small business owners, junior civil servants. We think that all it takes to win the riding is to build the biggest army, go to all the right community events, and tell how only a Liberal MP can get things done.

How we need to think is to be Richmond Street Liberals. To realize that it isn't just about having the biggest army, but to really engage with the community and develop solid community policies to give that army marching orders. It won't matter how big and how hard working a team we have (and we will have a strong Ottawa Centre team regardless who wins), if we are not engaged with the community, and running the kind of campaign that bring soft Liberal-NDP voters, non-partisan progressives who support Paul Dewar because they think he does a good job, centrists who have become disengaged from the party, and others who have supported us in Ottawa Centre in the past back to the party, our army will be knocking on plenty of doors, but plenty of Paul Dewar doors.

I will be supporting Scott Bradley for the nomination on the 9th because I believe he has the best handle on the type of Ottawa Centre that we need to focus on if we want to win this riding back. Scott Bradley is a Richmond Street Liberal, a man of the community and the grassroots, and we need a man like him in Ottawa Centre if we want a change.

Quebec plans and other nomination news

This article lays out the Quebec plan for the Liberals should an election come, including what ridings to target:
http://www.ledevoir.com/2009/09/02/265221.html

According to information obtained by Le Devoir, the Liberal Party has it's eye on eight well-defined constituencies: three in Montreal (Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le Ber, Outremont), two in the Eastern Townships (Brome-Missisquoi, Compton -Stanstead), two in Outaouais (Gatineau, Pontiac) and Gaspé (Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia).

A well-placed source who knows the strategy in Quebec said that if the wind is favorable and that the campaign is going well, other districts may be added: Abitibi-Témiscamingue Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert, Saint - Lambert and Shefford.

And this nomination-centric news:
Three three ridings have been set aside for star candidate, which will be announced just before the election; Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le Ber and Outremont.

In other nomination news:

http://www.theobserver.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1725945

The contested Sarnia-Lambton Liberal nomination between Tim Fugard and Anne Marie Gillis is to be settled "soon...within the month."

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/689723

This article says that the Liberals have nomined 138 candidates, however Punditsguide.ca has us listed at 58, so I assume they are including incumbants. If they are, that might be a sign that no Liberal incumbant plans on retiring just yet.

http://icilevis.com/fr/index-lecture.aspx?sortcode=1.34.35&id_article=2037

Back in Quebec, the Liberals nominated Nicole Larouche, a local councilwoman, in the riding of Lotbinière – Chutes-de-la-Chaudière. The riding is held by Tory backbencher Jacques Gourde. The article also mentions that the Liberals want to run at least 25 women candidates in Quebec out of 75.

http://www.cfin-fm.com/Dans-Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere-0209095.html

Something interesting out of the same riding, as former Liberal MP Gaston Gourde, who represented the riding of Lévis (one of the precursor ridings) from 1981-1984, will run for the Bloc Quebecois nomination. The article also mentions Laforesterie Francis, a resident of St-Michel as the Liberal candidate for the next-door riding of Lévis – Bellechasse.


http://www.londontopic.ca/article.php?artid=15726
The NDP will have 2 London-area nomination meetings tomorrow, with London-Fanshawe incumbant Irene Mathyssen and 2008 Elgin-Middlesex-London candidate Ryan Dolby both being re-nominated for their respective ridings.

The gang that couldn't shoot straight

They were wrong about the recession. They were wrong about the deficit.

Now they are wrong about any economic recovery: (http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090831/tories_election_090901/20090901?hub=TopStories)

McCallum also pointed to Monday's news that Canada's economy grew by 0.1 per cent in June, about half the growth the private sector had expected.

"Well I certainly think a strong case can be made for a change in government on grounds of economic mismanagement because yesterday's growth numbers showed that, far from leading the G7 out of recession, Canada was dead last in its economic performance in the second quarter,"

And they simply have no idea about their own stimulus package:
(http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2009/09/01/10697446-sun.html)

"The Conservatives spent the summer announcing billions in infrastructure spending, but the minister in charge won't say how many jobs the cash has created."

Canadians deserve better on the economy than Harper's misleading, Flaherty's incompetence, and Baird's guesswork.