Is Andrea Horwath for real?

That's what the new Kathleen Wynne ad asks Ontarians after Horwath said NO to an increased child benefit, an Ontario Pension Plan, better transit, and a new job creation strategy for Ontario. I'm really digging the "I'm Kathleen Wynne and I stand behind this message" tag the Premier has been using.

I'm sure NDP'ers will complain about "going negative", to which I have to ask, isn't joining with Tim Hudak and Stephen Harper and saying NO to a strong plan for Ontario a tad more negative?

What happened to Tom "Captain Canada" Mulcair now that the writ has dropped in Quebec?

Looks like Captain Canada is staying "neutral" in the face of a PQ government which would almost certainly call a referendum and which of course, will be running on the regressive so-called "Charter of Values" that would ban observant Jews, Sikhs, Muslims, and Christians from being a part of the civil service.

If Mulcair is "neutral" against this, what will he take a stand for?

Doing politics differently? NDP break campaign laws in Niagara Falls by-election

Is breaking the law to try and win Andrea Horwath's idea of "leadership"?

Orange continues to be crushed in federal by-elections

I was happy to help the Freeland campaign in Toronto Centre over the last couple of months, and I'm glad to have her as my MP. I was a poll captain, and Freeland pulled 62% of the vote in my home poll, woot.

With the results spinning game already going on, here is my contribution, taking a look at some of the data from by-election results since the last election:

• The NDP did get its best ever result in Toronto Centre with 36%, but despite Mulcair running a star candidate with a hard negative campaign, the actual margin between the Liberals and NDP increased from 2011 from 11% to 13%, with Liberal support increasing by 8%
• Of the nine by-elections held since the last election, Toronto Centre marked only the second time that the NDP actually increased its percentage of the vote. The NDP saw a 5% increase in Durham, when the Liberals were shorthanded because of the provincial Liberal leadership race
• The NDP also ran a star candidate and ran a hard negative campaign in Bourassa...and were rewarded with a lower share of the vote than 2011 and a Liberal margin of victory almost double over 2011
• In by-elections since Mulcair has become NDP leader, NDP support has declined by 9% on average, with three seats (Brandon-Souris, Calgary Centre, Provencher and Victoria) seeing double digit declines in support
• While the NDP vote has only gone up in two by-elections, the Liberal vote has only gone down in two races, (Victoria and Durham) which were held when the Liberals were without a permanent leader (and as mentioned when Liberal energies in Ontario were elsewhere) and the decline in both seats was less than 1%
• While the NDP was running from Mulcair's record on resource development in Toronto Centre, in Western Canada the NDP vote declined by 11% in Calgary Centre, 14% in Victoria, 10% in Provencher and 18% in Brandon-Souris. In all but Victoria, which was a held NDP seat and was retained, the NDP candidate finished with under 10% of the vote
• The Manitoba NDP holds a seat in Brandon, making the 18% drop they experienced more troubling, as they hardly lack a ground game. 
• While the Liberals took Labrador from the Conservatives and came within 4% and 1% of winning Calgary Centre and Labrador respectively, the 13% gap in Toronto Centre represents the closest the the NDP has come to actually winning (and again, this is actually a widening of the gap for the NDP from 2011) and the NDP only retained Victoria by less than 3% after a 14% drop

"Stephen Harper’s climate-change record can’t be ignored anymore" - because it's putting Canadian jobs and our economy at risk

Worthwhile article from Chantal Hebert here.

She's not the first to link Harper's gutting of environmental regulations, skeptical attitude towards climate change and attacks on the environmental movement to other countries (particularly our major trading partner south of the border) reluctance to embrace Canada's natural resources, but in just two sentences, Hebert does a good job of exposing the box that the Conservative government has painted Canada's economy into:

"Harper has made it impossible to have a national conversation on the economy without talking about pipelines, but just as impossible to debate those without addressing his climate change record. When it comes to Canada’s energy agenda, it is the elephant in the room that will no longer be ignored."

When other countries and trading partners read reports that state Canada ranks worst on climate policy among industrialized countries, that doesn't encourage confidence. 

As someone who was part of the Young Liberals of Canada delegation to the United Nations Conference of the Parties climate change negotiations in Copenhagen in 2009, it is disappointing that Canada's leadership sees the environment and the economy as competing interests, but I am happy that the the Liberal Party and Justin Trudeau have a sustainable and balanced energy policy.

This understanding that responsible approaches to environmental and energy policy can benefit all Canadians also contrasts nicely with Thomas Mulcair and his NDP, who are when speaking in front of a Calgary corporate oil sands audience say "Pipelines...should be a priority...[we] will be a partner with the development of energy resources...We will be there with you." while attacking the oil sands in Toronto Centre.

Why not a McQuaig vs. Mulcair debate on natural resource development?

As I predicted back in September, the Mulcair NDP has wasted no time in demonstrating that the "Love is better than anger" NDP is long gone, as Mulcair candidates in the by-elections (particularly Toronto Centre) have spared no opportunity in launching angry attacks on the third-party Liberals.

Mulcair's candidate in Toronto Centre, Linda McQuaig has been negative from day one, attacking the Liberal candidate for not being "from" Toronto (an interesting strategy in a riding with one of the largest population of New Canadians in the country and not one I really thought worked well for the NDP against Glen Murray in his by-election, but the Mulcair NDP is not going to miss a chance to be angry) and attacking Justin Trudeau on the environment and energy development. You can see a sample of Ms. McQuaig's consistency on environmental policy above, but something McQuaig has also been demanding is more debates. I'd love to see her debate a political leader who has positions like this:

Mulcair promises partnership with oil sands..."Pipelines to carry oil from the West to the East should be a priority...[we] will be a partner with the development of energy resources...We will be there with you."

And this in a speech "organized by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce and sponsored by oil sands producer Suncor Energy Inc. and pipeline company Enbridge Inc." Or how about a leader, who speaking to the elite and well connected Canadian Club of Toronto:

"Mulcair throws support behind West-to-East oil pipeline...Mulcair gave his clearest sign of support yet for the notion of a west-to-east pipeline...Mulcair said shipping western oil to Eastern Canada is “pro-business"...Mr. Mulcair later told reporters he has long said he would not speak against the oil sands expansion.

A debate between Ms. McQuaig and her fellow Mulcair candidate Cory Szczepanski in Brandon-Souris would also be interesting, considering he proudly tweeted out the first article on October 27th:

"Willing to bring it … hard", "stoke[ing]...frustration and anger" - What the expect from NDP campaigns in the upcoming by-elections

That's what Pundits' Guide and David Akin wrote about new Mulcair candidate Linda McQuaig's approach to politics in their (both very good) summaries of the Toronto Centre nominations. I was happy to spend the day pulling vote for Chrystia Freeland, who McQuaig wasted no time in attacking. Those who read my blog frequently will know that I would be a wild hypocrite to pretend to be offended by going on the attack, but as Liberals, we have to realize both that Mulcair's NDP will pull as few punches as the Harper Conservatives in both Toronto Centre and Bourassa going after Liberals and making personal attacks both nationally and on local candidates. The "Love is better than anger" etc stuff was always more how New Democrats saw themselves then how they actually behaved, but Mulcair's NDP's determination to attack the third-party Liberals years before a general election is something Liberals are going to have to deal with when campaigning directly against the NDP. In the past, Liberal campaigns against the NDP failed too often when they simply boiled down to strategic voting arguements - an arguement that collapsed in the 2011 federal election. We have to be unafraid to defend our Leader and candidate from personal and policy attacks, and argue that Justin Trudeau and candidates like Chrystia Freeland are better suited to address the needs of all Canadians. And yes, we can make arguements like how McQuaid's support of "Israeli Apartheid Week" and Mulcair's main focus as leader being tearing open the Constitution with Senate abolishment demonstrate that the NDP isn't focused on the issues of everyday Canadians. As a soon to be constituent of Toronto Centre, I'll be looking forward to helping out Justin Trudeau and the Freeland campaign.

Two-time NDP candidate and environmentalist quits Ontario NDP over Horwath adopting Rob Ford's transit policy

This is Trevor Hache earlier today, quitting the Ontario NDP over their rejection of revenue models to expand transit options for families in the Greater Toronto and Greater Hamilton Area.

Hache twice ran for the NDP in Ottawa-Vanier, and as Policy Director for Ecology Ottawa, a major Ottawa-area environmental organization which he was also a founding member of. (In the interest of full disclosure, I also worked for Ecology Ottawa for several months as a fundraising canvasser.)

Horwath moved the ONDP away from promoting public transit and sound environmental policy in the last election when the ONDP platform included a plank to use your tax dollars to subsidize gas prices for big gas guzzling cars. The ONDP's latest move to shows they continue to reject real models for public transit funding, and it'll be interesting to see how the rump environmental wing of the ONDP handles Horwath embracing the Rob Ford position on public transit.

Does Fordwath work as a nickname or is that too much of a stretch?

Labrador insta-analysis

I present to you some thoughts on the upcoming Labrador by-election. By the way, here is a link to donate to the Labrador FLA: https://action.liberal.ca/en/donate/Riding/10004

With the resignation of Conservative Minister Peter Penashue after he admitted his campaign took illegal donations, Labrador faces a fascinating by-election. Penashue is taking the rare step of running in the by-election to attempt to re-gain a mandate, something that by my count has only happened a few times in Canadian history. (Sheila Copps in 1996 and  Roch La Salle in 1981 are the only examples that I can name off the top of my head.)

Penashue won an extremely narrow victory in 2011, defeating incumbant Liberal MP Todd Russell by only 79 votes, or less than 1 vote per poll. Penashue's victory in 2011 can be attributed to a few factors. As former Grand Chief of the Innu Nation, he was able to increase Innu turnout in the election, a demographic that for a variety of reasons has historically not had higher turnout. The return of the Newfoundland and Labrador PC's to the federal Tory fold has to be taken into consideration, as many PC voters and organizers followed Danny Williams' ABC campaign in 2008, resulting in Labrador having less than 40% turnout and Russell romping to victory with 70% of the vote with the Conservative candidate, a Parliament Hill staffer originally from St. John's finishing in 3rd with less than 10% of the vote. The NDP vote rising in 2011 also cost Russell. Discounting the 2008 result, comparing the 2006 and 2011 results shows a stable Tory vote - Penashue's victory in 2011 with 4,256 votes was actually less than the 2006 2nd place Tory finish of 4,528 votes. Russell's vote from 2006/2011 went from 5,768 to 4,177 (it should be noted that his rise in popular vote % from 2006 to 2008 from 51% to 70% was based on the Tory vote collapsing, his raw vote in 2008 was actually slightly lower than his 2006 score) while the NDP vote from 2008 to 2011 went up by almost 1000 votes. With the provincial NDP polling well right now, they will be a factor in the race.

By-elections historically have low turnout, but it should be noted that the 2005 Labrador by-election in which Russell was elected had a 53% turnout, higher than the turnout in the general elections of 2011, 2008, 2004 and 2000. However, this by-election was held during the height of the Martin minority government when one seat could have tipped the balance of power in the House, so with this by-election being held two years into a majority mandate I'd be very surprised to see the voters of the riding hold the same level of urgency. Not sure exactly who would benefit the most from low voter turnout, particularly in a riding with a large aboriginal population.

With clouds of election donation and spending over his head, Penashue hardly goes into the by-election with momentum on his side. Given the strained relations between the federal government and First Nations groups, it might be difficult for Penashue to motivate Innu turnout like he did in 2011. Aboriginals make up just under 40% of the population of the riding. The big wild card will be the Muskrat Falls project, which Penashue will almost certainly point to as an example of his being able to bring home the bacon. Penashue has done almost nothing else notable as Intergovernmental Affairs Minister.

Former MP Todd Russell (who is aboriginal himself) would be the most likely candidate for the Liberals, he's said he's going to take a few days to make a decision. Russell was generally well liked from what I understand (his losing 38.1% of the vote would be enough to get you elected in a lot of other ridings) and was close with Justin Trudeau when they served together as MP's, so the nomination would probably be his for the taking. If Russell takes a pass, the other name I've seen tossed about on Twitter is Liberal MHA and former leader Yvonne Jones, who represents the Southeastern portion of Labrador. Jones has a strong local base in her Liberal stronghold riding, never winning less than 56% of the vote, and that was as an independent candidate. Even in the 2007 Danny Williams landslide, Jones won 73% of the vote, and in the last election won 71%.

I briefly mentioned the NDP, who would hope to play spoiler and potentially come up the middle. The NDP has never won the seat federally, although they have posted respectable results historically, and have twice won the Labrador West seat provincially (they also won the poll covering most of western Labrador in the 2011 federal election). New polls show the NDP leading the PC's in popular support province wide, although support for the NDP outside Western Labrador tends to be concentracted in the St. John's and Avalon area. The newest poll shows them nearly 50% of the vote in this area, compared to 32% in the rest of the province. The size and remoteness of Labrador is problem in terms of polling, however, as Labrador has only 6% of the population of the province, and thus only 6% of the survey results were from the province. I won't claim enough about Newfoundland politics to know who the NDP candidate might be, with 2011 and 2006 candidate Jake Larkin being the most obvious choice. Former Labrador West NDP MHA Randy Collins spent 21 months in jail for fraud, so I'm willing to cross him off the list, as well as the previous NDP MHA Peter Fenwick, who ran for the Canadian Alliance in 2000. 2011 Labrador West provincial candidate Tom Harris perhaps?

Timing will also be an issue. Assuming Denis Coderre resigns as MP for Bourassa to focus on a bid for Montreal mayor, Harper would probably call both by-elections at the same time. It makes sense tactically for the Conservatives to do so anyway, they are an afterthought in Bourassa, so they could throw everything at Labrador (assuming they want to), while the Liberals and NDP would have to focus on both, with the Liberals in particular wanting to hold on to Bourassa from the NDP or Bloc (whose leader, Daniel Paille is seatless), while the NDP would dearly like to mount serious offensive campaigns in both ridings.

On the whole, I think the Liberals have the best shot of winning the riding back, assuming they get an A list candidate in either Russell or Jones although realistically any of the 3 parties has a shot. What kind of support Penashue gets from party central will be an interesting question, the Conservatives obviously would prefer to keep the seat, but given the circumstances of Penashue's resignation and new campaign, I can't imagine they want to get many media photos of Penashue with visiting Ministers.

Horwath skips vote on Southwestern Ontario Economic Development Fund and runs Rob Ford supporter in Vaughan - what does her NDP stand for?

Kitchener-Waterloo NDP candidate Catherine Fife is running on a slogan of "Leadership that delievers", but a look at the actions of NDP leader Andrea Horwath and her fellow NDP candidate in Vaughan raises questions about what exactly she wants to deliver.

Yesterday, the Ontario Liberals gave new support to the Southwestern Ontario Economic Development Fund, to help create jobs for families across Southwestern Ontario, including Kitchener-Waterloo. And what did Andrea Horwath do? She walked out, not standing up for job creation in Kitchener-Waterloo.

Now, we already know that Hudak candidate Tracey Weiler has no qualms about flip-floping on supporting her leader, going from saying she ""supports the leader’s position on halting the rollout of full-day kindergarten in the province" to running away from Hudak:

But with Andrea Horwath running a Rob Ford supporter in Vaughan as Fife's candidate mate, will we see Catherine Fife start to back away from Horwath? Here's Horwath's NDP values on display in Vaughan:

With Tracey Weiler and Andrea Horwath's values all over the map, Eric Davis is the best choice for strong local leadership in Kitchener-Waterloo.

"Students putting students first" - Ontario Student Trustees' Association calls Putting Students First Act "a fair deal", but will the NDP and Catherine Fife listen?

The NDP and Catherine Fife have already come out against the Putting Students First Act, but will they listen to the students of Ontario themselves or their big union money interests?

Here's what the Ontario Student Trustees' Association says about the Liberal government moving to make sure students are in class from day one of the school year in Kitchener-Waterloo and across Ontario

Hirad Zafari, OSTA-AECO President and Toronto DSB Student Trustee, called upon "provincial leaders and teachers' unions, specifically those who have not agreed to the OECTA framework, to ensure full-service education for all students this coming year."

Provincial leaders are calling on teachers' unions to take a two-year wage freeze as part of province-wide austerity in the face of a large deficit and growing Ontario public debt - "a fair deal, given the nine years of labour peace and the progress made in our schools" said Kevin Michael, Catholic Board Council President and Student Trustee at Dufferin-Peel Catholic DSB.



Tim Hudak showed he can't be trusted to protect stability in schools when he flip-floped and "condemned" full-day kindergarten, and Tracey Weiler showed she is no Elizabeth Witmer when it comes to standing up for Kitchener-Waterloo families by weakly saying she "supported [Hudak's] position". If Catherine Fife and the NDP put big union money (Fife hasn't issued any news releases about education, but she has about getting a public sector union endorsement) before what students want, what does that say about Fife's and the NDP's real priorities on education?

Why is Eric Davis running in Kitchener-Waterloo?

Here's a great piece by Kitchener-Waterloo Liberal candidate Eric Davis answering the most basic question that anyone running for public office has to answer: Why are you running?

Eric's two big reasons are simple but moving: Public service and family.

Eric has a long track-record of local leadership in Kitchener-Waterloo, and he'll be a fighter to build a better future for Kitchener-Waterloo families.


I was raised to believe that each of us has a responsibility to contribute to the vibrancy and success of our community. Everyone contributes in their own way. Until now, my way has been through volunteering with a number of local organizations, most notably as the vice chair of the local United Way, and recently as chair of the local branch of the Canadian Mental Health Association.

However, I have also long believed that public service is an important responsibility and an honour. I look to former representatives such as Herb Epp, Andrew Telegdi and Elizabeth Witmer, and I see how our community has benefited from leaders who have been strong local representatives of Kitchener-Waterloo first and foremost.

Witmer served our community for 22 years as MPP. Despite our many philosophical differences, I have a great respect for her dedication to Kitchener-Waterloo. She served with honour and distinction, and I hope to follow her path of strong local representation through hard work and a commitment to our community.

Eric's other big reason for running hits close to home for me: To protect the public services that helped his family, and to build a better future for all families like his in Kitchener-Waterloo.

In particular, Eric drawing inspiration from his wife surviving breast cancer thanks in large part to investments in health care and breast cancer detection made by the McGuinty Liberal government (just as my mother is a breast cancer survivor) shows he has a personal stake in protecting the gains Ontario has made in health care.

At the age of 24, my wife Cynthia was diagnosed with breast cancer. For 18 months she underwent chemotherapy, radiation treatments, surgeries and countless doctor visits.
Today, we are thankful to say that she is a cancer survivor due, in large part, to Ontario’s health care system.

Though we will have to find efficiencies in our health care system to ensure its long-term sustainability, we must always ensure that it remains free, public and universal so that everyone experiencing a health challenge like my wife can avoid the worry of affordability and concentrate on recovery.

Our daughter Isabella is now two years old. As I have watched her grow, learning to speak and developing a love of books, I’ve gained an appreciation for the importance of early learning.
That’s why I fully support the Liberal government’s investments in education, including the introduction of full-day kindergarten and the strong commitment to smaller class sizes.

While the Hudak Conservatives and Tracey Weiler flip-flop on important issues like full-day kindergarten, and the NDP presents no real plan to balance the budget and ensure stability in schools, Eric Davis will be a strong fighter for the future of Kitchener-Waterloo families, motivated by the very best of concerns: The dignity of public service and protecting the health care and public education systems that have helped teach and heal generations of Ontario families.

Young Liberals take strong stand against Mulcair's pro-Harper, pro-prohibition stance on marijuana

Today Young Liberals across the country are taking part in a campaign taking on NDP leader Tom Mulcair for his pro-Harper position on marijuana prohibition. I'm proud to count myself as part of the Ottawa team, putting up posters, handing out information and buttons, and reaching out to the majority of Canadians who believe that continuing the war on marijuana would be a mistake.

The current state of marijuana laws in Canada are hitting taxpayers hard, and Stephen Harper's tough on wallets crime schemes will only make the situation worse. Hardworking Canadian policemen and policewomen should be working on stopping serious crimes, not be forced to arrest Canadians for possession of small amounts of marijuana for personal use. It is particularly disappointing to see the NDP and Tom Mulcair stand with Stephen Harper on the issue of marijuana, as those punished under the current laws are disproportionately youth, members of racialized communities,and those with limited income.

Liberals are taking a strong stand for common-sense drug crime policies, as legalization will hurt violent gangs by depriving them a significant source of income, and help policemen and policewomen keep more dangerous drugs off the street. I am happy to see the Young Liberals take the lead on this issue and push the senior party in the right direction, making clear, strong arguments for evidence-based policies.

Liberals want to treat Canadians like adults and take on Harper on his costly and ineffective prohibitionist policies. The NDP and Tom Mulcair want to capitulate and let Harper set the terms of discussion on drug laws and crime. A big part of rebuilding the Liberal Party is staking out bold new policies and advancing them to Canadians, and I'm glad I can play a part in that process today.

Conservative attacks on eco groups should give LPC an opportunity to reach out

A lot has been written about the attacks on environmental groups in the recent Conservative budget, most of it negative, such as this Globe and Mail editorial: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/editorials/budgets-new-rules-unfairly-target-environmental-groups/article2387590/

While the Conservatives are wasting your tax dollars to go after legitimate environmental groups (full disclosure: I am currently working part time for an environmental organization, although as the group is not a charity I don't believe the new guidelines would impact us) and gut Elections Canada, I believe the federal Liberal Party should use this as an opportunity to expand ties with environmental groups across the country, and help ensure the importance of the environment in the Liberal platform.

I think in retrospect a failure of the Green Shift in 2008 was that a lot of environmental groups couldn't be brought onside to promote it and the Liberal Party as the best choice for environmentally minded voters. One only needs to contrast how vocally environmental groups rallied around the Ontario Liberals in the most recent provincial election to see the difference this kind of support can make. Both the NDP and Conservatives seem to be wanting the next election to be framed as an economy/environment battle (as Paul Wells has written extensively about) for different reasons, and the Liberals risk being shut out of this conversation (which would be terrible for any hopes of escaping third-party status) unless we can present a pragmatic middle ground approach, and talk about building the green economy and creating jobs here in Canada in a way neither the NDP or Conservatives can do. Having the support of the environmental movement behind a green jobs approach would be absolutely vital, and I think the Liberals need to move quickly and firm up these ties, while at the same time keep active talks open with the natural resources sector, to make balanced environmental regulations and create jobs, without the vilification of either environmental activity or the hard-working Canadians who work in the natural resources sector.

A more local look at successors to Jack Layton

Plenty of speculation so far about potential successors to Jack Layton as federal NDP leader, but I haven't seen much about potential NDP candidates to follow Jack in Toronto-Danforth, so I'll take a look at some potential NDP candidates for a by-election that will be coming in the next 180 days.

-Mike Layton
Jack's son, following in his father's footsteps by sitting on city council. Would he follow Jack's steps further and make the jump to MP? It would be interesting, but I doubt it. Layton has been in office for under a year, and has built his powerbase up in Oliva Chow's Trinity-Spadina riding, not the East York area Toronto-Danforth.

-Paula Fletcher
City council member for the southern half of Toronto-Danforth and formerly a public school board trustee, Fletcher is solidly a member of the left wing of council, although she barely snuck into re-election in Ward 30 in 2010 over Liz West. Fletcher has name recognition (although not always positive) and plenty of government experience, but the other "formerly" in her resume might be problematic - Fletcher was the leader of the Communist Party of Manitoba back in the day. Considering the communications and image issues the party is dealing with with Nycole Turmel's associations with Quebec sovereignty, the optics of an ex-Communist campaigning to be an MP for an ex-soverigntist wouldn't be the greatest for the party (assuming the by-election is held during Turmel's interm leadership, as the NDP fed council has yet to hammer out the exact time table.)


-Mary Fragedakis
The NDP alligned councilor for the north end of Toronto-Danforth, only recently elected in 2010. I think she's pretty unlikely to run, but I'll include her on this list just for the sake of it.

-Peter Tabuns
Former city councilor & executive director of Greenpeace, Tabuns is currently the MPP for Toronto-Danforth and was a close friend of Jack Layton. Tabuns was the early frontrunner for the ONDP leadership when Howard Hampton stepped down, losing to Andrea Horwath, who has since taken the party significantly away from environmental issues, leaving the former executive director of Greenpeace in a somewhat awkward spot, being forced to advocate for Horwath policies like subsidizing gas guzzling SUV's and voting against the Clean Water Act. (see http://www.blogger.com/www.dirtyNDP.ca for more details) Tabuns running would probably depend on the NDP results in the provincial election, but with a mix of civic experience and environmental background, Tabuns would be a good get for the NDP if they could convince him to run federally.

-Marilyn Churley
Former MPP for Toronto-Danforth and a twice failed federal NDP candidate in Beaches-Easy York, Churley would bring experience serving in a provincial NDP government, as well as the attractiveness of recruiting a high-profile female candidate to fill Layton seat (Layton was good at promoting women in politics, something I will always give him a lot of credit and respect for). Churley was also a notable supporter of Layton's NDP leadership bid, which might give her some added credibility. She's currently serving as a justice of the peace, so she would need to give up that respected position for a shot at running.

-Brian Topp
I'm not the first person to point out that Topp would need a riding if he wanted to be NDP leader. Topp was born and raised in Quebec and has worked in Saskatchewan, but has been based out of Toronto for a few years, so he could use that to fight off allegations of being a parachute candidate. With the timeline for both the NDP leadership and the by-election still up in the air, one interesting possibility would be Topp both running for leader and running in the by-election to have a seat. I remember back during the 2006 Liberal leadership contest a brief flurry of speculation came up about either Gerard Kennedy, Bob Rae, or Martha Hall Findlay contesting the London North Centre by-election, as they were the Ontario based candidates without a seat at the time. Nothing ended up coming from that, and aside from that I'm not sure if a seat less candidate for major party leadership has ever run in a by-election. Be an interesting test of party unity if he did decide to run for both at the same time.

If anyone else has any theories about potential candidates, feel free to leave a suggestion in the comments.

Is weakness in the regions the real cause for NDP flip-flopping on the budget?

At this point, the NDP has had more than a few positions on supporting the Tory budget. While Liberals have been clear that hard working Canadian families deserve a hard working government that invests in the social services they need to put ground under their feet, not a government that hands out big corporate tax breaks, the NDP has yet to come out with a clear agenda for the coming budget. They have a few minor tweeks they would like to make, sure. Will an added drop of spending here and there for some boutique policies really buy NDP support for a Conservative government whose national housing strategy is prisons, and who thinks big corporations should get tax breaks instead of middle class Canadians getting the social services they deserve?

If you do a region by region breakdown, you can see some pretty visible cracks and holes in the NDP, which shares a campaign machine and support base with its provincial parties to a higher degree compared to the other parties.

In the Maritimes, the Nova Scotia NDP hasn't fallen behind in popularity, putting NDP seats at risk there, and the Liberals have seen some strong poll numbers across the Atlantic recently, and the Nova Scotia Liberals have some good momentum, winning by-elections and gaining a high-profile defection from the PC's, Karen Casey. The NB NDP is going through another leadership race, and the PEI and Newfoundland party organizations are mortibund, aside from Jack Harris.

In Quebec, the NDP lost a high profile candidate, Jean-Claude Rocheleau to the Bloc, and Thomas Mulcair faces a very tough challenge from Martin Cauchon for Outremont.

In Ontario, the NDP vote collapsed in the Vaughan by-election, winning less than 2% of the vote, and in the 2 most recent provincial by-elections, the NDP vote declined from 2007 as well. This puts them at risk of losing a number of close NDP-Liberal seats, such as Ottawa Centre with Scott Bradley running hard, Trinity-Spadina, and a good handfull of seats in Northern Ontario.

In the Praries, of course, the NDP lost the fortress seat of Winnipeg North to the Liberals, sending shockwaves across urban politics and demonstrating the Liberals could compete and win in Western Canada, and the Saskatchewan NDP is trailing in the polls.

BC might show the most vulnerability for the NDP. The party has MP's stepping down federally, and the provincial leadership race has gone from farce to tragedy very quickly, with allegations of the party blocking candidates, of leadership candidates using shady sign-up methods, disputes over the role of the labour unions within the race, and other shenanigans.

The NDP can put on a brave face as they flip-flop over the Harper budget, but a look at the on the ground situation shows they very well could put political calculations above standing against the Harper agenda.

New nomination news

Make sure to check out the Winter Tour kickoff in Ottawa West-Nepean with Michael Ignatieff and Anita Vandenbeld on Jan 12 if you're in the Ottawa-Gatineau area!

http://www.facebook.com/#!/event.php?eid=173291749375363
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http://www.timescolonist.com/news/Garrison+nomination+Esquimalt+Juan+Fuca/4053196/story.html

2004 and 2006 candidate and Esquimalt city councilour Randall Garrisson annouced today he would take another crack at Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca, with incumbant Liberal MP Keith Martin, who narrowly bested Garrisson in both elections not running again. Interestingly, provincial BC president Moe Sihota, who has come under fire at times for getting paid directly by BC unions, and the controversy now brewing over his handling of the potential BC NDP leadership candidacy of marijuana activist Dana Larsen was apparently also considering a run, but decided against it.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Going+longest+shot/4044042/story.html

Some discussion of the possible upcoming Calgary Centre-North by-election, and if the Liberals can build on an upset victory in Winnipeg North with another suprisingly strong showing in Western Canada. Apparently the party has at least one interested candidate:


Fridhandler (the Alberta federal co-chair) has been courting a promising candidate for the riding -- a professor at the University of Calgary who is a political neophyte but, apparently, interested.

At one point I had heard rumours that outgoing Calgary mayor Dave Bronconnier was a possibility for the Liberal candidacy, so we'll see how that pans out.

The author of the piece also speculates that the Tories awarding the nomination to Michelle Rempel a loyal but lower profile party activist might also backfire.

She may turn out to be a terrific campaigner, but when parties reward faithful members with safe seats it suggests complacency.

The two candidates Naheed Nenshi defeated to win the mayorality, Ric McIver and Barb Higgins had at one point both expressed interest in the Tory nomination, but nothing ultimately came of that.

Lots of nomination news for all!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/can-spurned-afghan-detainee-watchdog-topple-tory-mp/article1827850/

Solid candidate recruitment for the Liberals in Eastern Ontario, with Peter Tinsley,
former chair of the Military Police Complaints Commission, who will seek the Liberal nomination (and will almost certainly be the candidate) in Prince Edward-Hastings. Tinsley failed to be reappointed as chair after his investigations into the Afghan detainee file.

http://www.thespec.com/news/local/article/282425--braden-seeks-liberal-nomination

And a contested nomination is in the works in ADFW, with longtime municipal councilor and environmental activist Dave Braden seeking the Liberal nomination, alongside former Ancaster councillor Bryan Kerman, and Maple Leaf Foods vice-president for environmental affairs Anne Tennier of Waterdown.

http://www.nsnews.com/news/2011+bumper+year+sausages/3930128/story.html

Interesting race shaping up in North Vancouver for the Liberals, with municipal councilor Roger Bassam now facing Kevin O'Brien, a veteran MLA and former speaker of the assembly in Nunavut. No word on former Green candidate Jim Stepehenson, who seemed to have declared a run, possibly dropped out, and maybe jumped back in.

Read more: http://www.nsnews.com/news/2011+bumper+year+sausages/3930128/story.html#ixzz17YtOYADD

http://www.simcoe.com/news/article/911725--guergis-insists-she-still-has-support


This article on the Conservative nomination for Simcoe-Grey mentions a name I haven't seen mentioned before, Paul Throop, a longtime Tory activist and staffer to Peter MacKay, who will face off against Collingwood mayor Chris Carrier and the star candidate who seems heavily favoured by the party establishment,orthopedic surgeon Kellie Leitch.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/kootenay_rockies/kootenayadvertiser/news/111282494.html

The Kootenay-Columbia Tory nomination has gained a new contestant, Dale Shudra, a local businessman.

http://www.ngnews.ca/News/Local/2010-11-30/article-2006683/County-councillor-David-Parker-seeking-federal-NDP-nomination/1

Rounding thing up, county councillor David Parker is looking for the NDP nomination for Central Nova. David is the brother of a local NDP MLA.

NDP loss in Winnipeg North shows Liberals can steal urban seats from NDP

The Liberal victory in Winnipeg North I believes symbolizes a shift in urban politics in this country. Hardworking Liberal teams can knock off the NDP in urban ridings, even ones where they have been in power for most of the last decades. The Harper Conservatives have ignored the economic and social needs of urban Canadians, and the NDP, divided on important issues like the gun registry, can't be counted on to protect the interests of urban Canadians.

The path to a Liberal victory in the next election will go through working hard and knocking off urban NDP MP's in a number of ridings, and the Liberals are well positioned to make gains. Here are just a few of urban ridings held by the NDP that I think the Liberal victory in Winnipeg North exposes a weakness for Team Orange

-Outremont
With Mulcair more interested in talk show apperances, and the Liberals running a star candidate, this will be the top Liberal target in Quebec. Margin of NDP victory: 6%

-Vancouver Kingsway
With an experienced candidate in Wendy Yuan, Liberals in BC will look to take back this seat from the NDP after the floor-crossing David Emerson didn't run again. Margin of NDP victory: 6%

-Trinity-Spadina
Another riding with a great female Liberal candidate with local roots, Christine Innes, Oliva Chow can only get by on name recognition for so long. Margin of NDP victory: 6%

-Ottawa Centre
Of course, I must mention Ottawa Centre and Scott Bradley. Paul Dewar talks a good game in the House, but doesn't have much in the way to show for 4 years of being an MP for the actual people of Ottawa Centre. The Bradley Team has been working hard knocking on doors and listening to the real concerns of residents of the riding - exactly what helped get Kevin Lamoureux elected in Winnipeg North. NDP margin of victory: 14%

To note the scale of the switch in Winnipeg North, the Liberal campaign managed to raise the Liberal vote from under 10% to 46%, with the NDP vote declining over 20%. Liberals need to keep working hard and offering a positive vision for urban Canadians.

Winnipeg North could be a contest for the Liberals

http://www.winnipegsun.com/news/winnipeg/2010/05/05/13840081.html

With MLA Kevin Lamoureux already in the race for the federal Liberal nomination, he could soon be joined by Winnipeg city councillor Mike Pagtakhan who says "People have been asking me to consider it. I’m giving it some further thought. At this point, it’s possible...I’m sort of in self-evaluation mode right now." Mike is the nephew of Rey Pagtakhan, who was the Liberal MP for the area from 1988-2004, when seat redistribution put him up against Judy Wasylycia-Leis, who he had originally defeated in 1993 but was elected in a next door riding in 1997. The new riding was more NDP heavy which lead to his defeat.

The article also confirms that Kevin Chief will go after the NDP nomination.