Wednesday, December 1, 2010

NDP loss in Winnipeg North shows Liberals can steal urban seats from NDP

The Liberal victory in Winnipeg North I believes symbolizes a shift in urban politics in this country. Hardworking Liberal teams can knock off the NDP in urban ridings, even ones where they have been in power for most of the last decades. The Harper Conservatives have ignored the economic and social needs of urban Canadians, and the NDP, divided on important issues like the gun registry, can't be counted on to protect the interests of urban Canadians.

The path to a Liberal victory in the next election will go through working hard and knocking off urban NDP MP's in a number of ridings, and the Liberals are well positioned to make gains. Here are just a few of urban ridings held by the NDP that I think the Liberal victory in Winnipeg North exposes a weakness for Team Orange

With Mulcair more interested in talk show apperances, and the Liberals running a star candidate, this will be the top Liberal target in Quebec. Margin of NDP victory: 6%

-Vancouver Kingsway
With an experienced candidate in Wendy Yuan, Liberals in BC will look to take back this seat from the NDP after the floor-crossing David Emerson didn't run again. Margin of NDP victory: 6%

Another riding with a great female Liberal candidate with local roots, Christine Innes, Oliva Chow can only get by on name recognition for so long. Margin of NDP victory: 6%

-Ottawa Centre
Of course, I must mention Ottawa Centre and Scott Bradley. Paul Dewar talks a good game in the House, but doesn't have much in the way to show for 4 years of being an MP for the actual people of Ottawa Centre. The Bradley Team has been working hard knocking on doors and listening to the real concerns of residents of the riding - exactly what helped get Kevin Lamoureux elected in Winnipeg North. NDP margin of victory: 14%

To note the scale of the switch in Winnipeg North, the Liberal campaign managed to raise the Liberal vote from under 10% to 46%, with the NDP vote declining over 20%. Liberals need to keep working hard and offering a positive vision for urban Canadians.


WesternGrit said...

It just shows that nothing beats good, "feet on the ground" campaigning door to door. The most affluent riding in Sask is not held by a Conservative, but by a Liberal. Ralph Goodale knocked the entire riding THREE (3) times before E-Day his first go-around in 1993. He continues to come back to the riding and randomly knock doors in polls. This is a key to success that we cannot downplay at all. Better action and communication on the ground is key. A good ground game is hard to beat.

Anonymous said...

Not disagreeing with your overall point about Liberals taking away seats from the NDP, but how many urban seats do the NDP currently hold? About 20? Remember about half their caucus comes from rural areas.

So taking all the NDP urban seats still leaves us shy of 100 seats. Our main opponent is the Tories and we need to make gains in rural and suburban Canada as well to form government. We can't forget that.

rockfish said...

Let's add a few others to the pile:

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek: Marston won by 6500 in '08; just 500 over an incumbent in '06.
Hamilton Mtn: Charlton won by 6600 in '08; 3200 vote difference in '06.
Burnaby-Douglas: Siksa won by 800 votes (tho liberal was 8000 back); in '06 Grits were 2nd and 1250 behind.
Victoria: Savoie took it by 10000; in '06 it was 6800.

Then there are a handful of CON ridings in serious play...
North Vancouver: Saxton won 2800; Grits won in '06 by 3300.
Fleetwood-Port Kells: Grewal waltzed in by 8800; '06 margin was just 850.
Richmond: Wong rolled by 8000; in '06 Libs won by 1800.
Saanich-Gulf Isles: Lunn robo-dialed his way to a 2500 vote win; it was 7000 in '06.
West Van: Weston oiled his way to a 11000 win; Libs won it '06 by 1000.

Nope, not saying these are all winnable, but many are in play. Nope, not saying the same is very real in some solid Lib seats, too. But just playing to the friendly crowd...