Tuesday, June 30, 2009
A second candidate in Leeds-Grenville, Heather Rothgeb, a former journalist and town councillour.
Another riding that should be very near the top of the target list, St. Boniface, one of the few ridings in Western Canada with a large Francophone population will have former MP Ray Simard try to take back his old riding, as he was officially nominated.
The Soo tends to be a Liberal-NDP marginal, but last election we dipped to a distant third place, here's hoping Provenzano can get us back in the game.
Monday, June 29, 2009
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Saturday, June 27, 2009
My prediction was:
Tim Hudak - 5434 - 52.6%
Frank Klees - 4896 - 47.4%
I'm too lazy to do the math exactly unlike previous times, the vote basically split, with Hudak getting a slightly larger piece of the pie, and thus confirming what Perez Hudak reported earlier.
Tim Hudak 4226-40.8%
Frank Klees 3294-31.8%
Christine Elliott 2829-27.3%
The actual results:
Hudak 4128 -39.9%
So I was pretty accurate, it looks like the 70-20-10 prediction for Hillier's vote might have been closer to 75-25-basically ziltch. The projected 9% gap between Hudak and Klees is 8.1%, but Klees would still need a very very big swing towards him from Elliot. A 60-40 split for Klees would still at this point end in a Hudak victory.
Tim Hudak - 5289 - 51.2%
Frank Klees- 5041 - 48.8%
So while Klees did marginally better than I thought he would on the second ballot, pretty much anything under 65% of Elliott's vote would give Hudak the victory.
This is what 65% of Elliott's vote to Klees would look like:
Frank Klees- 5168- 50.2%
Tim Hudak- 5144- 49.8%
As to what I actually think will happen, I'll go out on a limb and say Klees gets 55% of Elliott's vote.
Tim Hudak - 5434 - 52.6%
Frank Klees - 4896 - 47.4%
So I predict Tim Hudak will be the next Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario leader.
I forgot to add a map of the 2nd ballot winners, so here we go. Only minor changes. All 3 of Hillier's wins go to Hudak, Klees breaks the tie in Davenport, Elliot takes Etobickoe Centre from Klees, Hudak picks up Windsor West and Northumberland-Quinte West from Elliott, Lambton -Kent - Middlesex from Klees.
Randy Hillier, the lion of the East, ended up being kind of a bust. He only got 10% of the vote province-wide, and even in his heartland of Eastern Ontario, only carried three ridings, including his home riding. Klees was shut out of the region plurality wise, something that looks like it might hurt him on the last ballot. Hudak managed to win across divides in the region, winning the urban seat of Ottawa Centre, and also carrying several rural and suburban seats in Ottawa. Elliot picked up 3, including the traditional Red Tory riding of Kingston.
Central Ontario is generally one of the more conservative parts of the province, and all 3 main candidates held their own here. Both Klees and Elliot have their home bases on the outskirts of the GTA near this region, which would help them in gaining support. Hudak, like he did in every predominately non-urban region, also did well.
In looking at a map of the GTA results, I'm going to break it down into two parts, the suburbs, and the city. This map explains why Frank Klees finished ahead of Christine Elliott. In particular, the wave of green Elliott support, coming in from both her power base of Whitby-Oshawa and the outer suburbs of the GTA east, and her support coming in from the more rural areas which turn into Central Ontario, are nearly totally and completely blocked by the light blue wall of suburban ridings which Klees dominated in, which also traps her downtown Toronto support. Klees nearly swept the GTA suburbs minus Elliott's homeland, winning all but one riding in his own base of the GTA North (Hudak picked up Vaughan) and did very well in the GTA West suburbs, dominating Mississauga/Brampton/Etobickoe, as well as the pre-amalgamation parts of Toronto, including Willowdale, Scarborough, etc. Elliott was completely shut out the the GTA North and the GTA West, and while the GTA was by far the weakest region for Hudak, he managed to pick off a handful of suburban seats that probably would have gone Klees, and a couple of urban Toronto seats that probably would have gone Elliot. The failure of either Klees or Elliott, however, to totally dominate the GTA probably doomed their campaign (and with news that Elliott has endorsed Klees, perhaps the whole Klees/Elliott GTA based axis) to second place.
If the map of the GTA results showed why Elliott lost, this map shows why (baring a huge vote shift to Klees by Elliott) Hudak won. Hudak destroyed both Klees and Elliott in Souther Ontario, and while it was expected that this would be his strongest region, for him to pretty much carry every riding from Niagara Falls to Kitchener, and then all but a few ridings from Guelph to Windsor, shows that Hudak was able to exploit his areas of strength the most, unlike Elliott and Klees, who split the GTA. In an area that has plenty of all three types, Hudak showed he could across the board, ranging from rural seats like Haldimand-Norfolk, to the sweep of all 3 urban London seats.
So in short:
-Hudak was the only candidate to win across all regions of the province.
-Elliott was unable to penetrate the GTA suburbs effectively.
-Klees' dominance of the suburbs ensured a leap-frogging of Elliott, but his relatively inability to win in rural areas, particulary getting shut out in Eastern Ontario, are likely to doom him to second.
-Hudak dominated his home region to a degree that Hillier, Elliott, ahd Klees did not.
Let's say that Hillier's support breaks down into something like 70-20-10 for Hudak/Klees/Elliott, that leaves a second ballot looking something like this:
Tim Hudak 4226-40.8%
Frank Klees 3294-31.8%
Christine Elliott 2829-27.3%
This now puts Elliott's near 3000 votes in play. Perez Hudak is reporting that Elliott sources are saying that their own supporters lean Hudak, which would give Hudak the victory no question. However, given the mutual antipathy between the Elliott and Hudak campaigns, particularly over the the last couple of weeks, I can see this being spin. Let's assume the whole Klees/Elliott axis (interesting how it ended up Klees/Elliott, and not the predicted Elliott/Klees) is somewhat existent, and lets split her vote 60-40 to Klees.
Tim Hudak- 5360 -51.7%
Frank Klees- 4990-48.2%
As we can see, a very close race, and Elliott's support will be crucial. If Klees wants to win, he will need the Elliott vote split to be more like 70-30, which would give us this:
Frank Klees- 5274-50.9%
Tim Hudak- 5075-49%
Klees getting 70% of the Elliott vote might be wishful thinking, and as the number show, he would still barely squeak out a victory. What this means is that the people calling Randy Hillier the "kingmaker" would seem to be correct if these predictions come true, as Hillier's support going overwhelmingly to Hudak would give Hudak the space he needs to survive all but a tsunami of Elliott support going to Klees.
Oh, and just for the sake of having my prediction in if what Perez Hudak is reporting is correct, here are the last ballot results if Elliott support breaks in the direction of Hudak to the tune of say, 55-45.
Tim Hudak-5782 -55.8%
Frank Klees-4567 - 44.2%
Let's see how things work out.
Riding by riding winners here: http://www.unitedandstrong.ca/2009/06/27/first-ballot-results/
Suprisingly strong showing by Klees. Hillier only wins 3 ridings, and has endorsed Hudak. Looks like the prediction of the Hudak/Hillier axis vs. the Klees/Elliott axis is coming true.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Prior to last year's CUSA debacles, I never understood the mentality of the non-voter. I had always eagerly voted in every election I have had an opportunity to take part in, everything from federal elections to internal school elections.
However, in the aftermath of Shinerama-gate and Bruce-gate, I figured it out. The CUSA system is just so corrupt, so petty, that I can now completely see how a voter would look at any system, be it CUSA, or the federal government, or politics in general, and just say "This system is so broken, I don't even want to be associated with it."
Thanks for giving me a first hand lesson in the problems facing modern democracy, CUSA.
A name I forgot to add when I wrote my Ottawa Centre post was that of Isabel Metcalfe. Metcalfe was the Carleton-Mississipi Mills candidate in 2006, and briefly made a run for the Ottawa Centre nomination last time around. She is recognized as a formidable fundraiser.
In non-Ottawa Centre news:
François Cloutier, a worker in Ministry of the Attorney General and restaurant owner, and Marc Dupuis, a Town of Hearst councillor, have both declared in Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing.
Maria Pearson, a Stoney Creek councillor, is considering a run for Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, as is Ivan Luksic, a defeated nomination candidate from last time around. As I have written earlier, however, all signs point to Larry Di Ianna being the candidate again.
Former MLA and Miramachi Mayor John McKay has declared his candidacy for the Miramachi nomination.
Bob Speller, who was long interested in running again in Haldimand-Norfolk, has officially declared.
Another 2008 candidate will give it another go, as David Remington was the only candidate to put his name forward for Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington.
In Newmarket-Aurora, former Aurora mayor and 2008 candidate Tim Jones has withdrew and endorsed a fellow mayor, King mayor Margaret Black.
Kimberley Love, who unsuccessfully tried to get the nomination for Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound in 2008, has declared her intent to run again.
In a Quebec riding the Liberals should be looking at as a potential pick-up, a 3-candidate field is down to two, in Alfred-Pellan, with former MP Carole-Marie Allard withdrawing. The remaining candidates are Martin Houle, a civil servant (and whose background in economics related departments I think would make him a good candidate) and Angelo G. Iacono a lawyer and Italian community activist.
Anyone else hear any new rumours?
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
The former Mayor of Ottawa, and the current MPP for Ottawa West-Nepean and the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing. Rumours of Watson running for either the Ottawa Centre nomination or trying to get his old job of Mayor back have been circulating for some time now. If he ran, he would be a formidable Liberal candidate, someone who could match NDP incumbant Paul Dewar in name recognition and local popularity (Watson, as the Mayor of pre-amalgamated Ottawa, won 83% of the vote, albeit over a decade again) and might be the Liberals best shot of knocking of Dewar and the NDP.
Fate was not kind to Mahoney. Longtime Liberal activst and organizer (serving as President of the Young Liberals, President of the Ontario Liberal Party, and was Paul Martin's long-time executive assistant), Mahoney was supposed to be easily elected to the House in a 2003 by-election after Mac Harb was appointed to the Senate, but his road hit some major bumps in the form of the sponsorship scandal, and a titan of an NDP candidate, former NDP leader Ed Broadbent. Broadbent took the riding for the NDP in the 2004 election, but only served a single term, leaving before the 2006 election to spend more time with his ailing wife. Mahoney was expected to be able to gain the seat back for the Liberals, but a dip in Liberal numbers, a local scandal involving Mahoney's work as a lobbyist, and a surprisingly strong campaign from Paul Dewar, held the seat for the NDP. Mahoney considered running for the Ottawa Centre nomination again, but withdrew from the contest and decided to try his luck in Pontiac, but was defeated for the nomination. According to the Hill Times, Mahoney is considering running again in Pontiac, but perhaps a vacancy in Ottawa Centre could lure him back across the Ottawa River.
The long-time MPP for Ottawa Centre, Patten left in a huff in 2007, claiming Dalton McGuinty was ignoring Ottawa, but many within the party said Patten was simply bitter at being passed over for cabinet. He has name recognition and knows the riding well, but could his parting shots hurt a potential run?
A community activist, Bell executive, organizer for Gerard Kennedy's leadership bid, and defeated nomination candidate (full disclosure, I supported him over Penny). Bradley doesn't have huge name recognition but is a hard campaigner, is passionate about local issues, and definitely has more than a few followers in the Ottawa Centre Liberal crowd. Previously, I had heard he was non-committal about running for the nomination again, particularly when Penny looked like she would have it in the bag, but it's a whole new ball game now.
City councillor for Gloucester-Southgate Ward, Deans has twice been an unsuccessful Liberal candidate for nomination, falling to David McGuinty in Ottawa South for the federal nod in 2004 (to nobody's shock) and Yasir Naqvi in Ottawa Centre provincially in 2007 (to many people's shock). Could third time be the charm for Deans?
Any other possible names people have heard?
Sunday, June 21, 2009
This is what Coderre said when named Quebec LT:
Michael Ignatieff's Quebec lieutenant says he is wooing disaffected sovereigntists and members of the stumbling Action democratique du Québec to the federal Liberal fold for the next election.
Liberal MP Denis Coderre said Monday that he has had talks with "fatigued" sovereigntists about possibly running for the Liberals in the next federal election.
Thanks to Maxime Bernier's very high local popularity (winning 62% of the vote in 2008, which I believe was the highest % received by any candidate from any party in 2008 in Quebec) a general consensus has emerged that even with the Tories polling low teens-high single digits in Quebec, he would be able to hold on to his seat.
The seat is also interesting for being a rare federalist vs. federalist fight. Since the emergence of the BQ in the 1993 elections, I believe Beauce, Pontiac, and Outremont are the only ridings to been held by different federalist parties without ever being held by the BQ. When Bernier won the seat in 2006, he did so largely thanks to a massive collapse in the Liberal vote in that riding, with the Grit vote sliding from 19,592 votes in 2004 to less than 5,000 in 2006, as Beauce, along with Pontiac, were the only Liberal held seats the Tories gained in the 2006 breakthrough. The BQ vote has moved around as well, and Bernier has managed to slice into traditional BQ supporters, but nowhere near to the extent that he has been able to grab Liberal votes. It will be interesting to see if a former ADQ man can not only ride the rising tide of Liberal votes in the Quebec, but can slice into the base small-c conservative vote. Pre-1993, the riding often featured tight contests between the Liberals and whichever conservative party happened to be dominant in Quebec at the time, with the Socreds and Liberals flipping holding the seat back and forth from 1962-1984, until the PC's became the dominant conservative force in the riding, winning it with Gillies Bernier, the father of Mad Max.
Let's see if any more ex-ADQ figures come out of the dark and present themselves for the federal Liberals.
And the Toronto Star gives a run down on how each candidate, including Elliott, would push the party to the right: http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/653871
Blizzard says of Elliott, who has tried to run in the Red Tory mold;
"From where I'm sitting, anyone who has the audacity to quietly speak about compassion in the middle of a Tory leadership campaign is getting a message across loud and clear."
Elliott's championing of herself as a "compassionate conservative" and a Red Tory is largely a result of Elliott trying to outflank the other three competitors, who are various shades of deep blue, by going after the centrist grassroots voters, and to a degree, an echo chamber effect, in which Elliott says she is moderate and compassionate, so the media reports it as is.
The Star article is interesting because it points out that despite Elliott's admittedly Red Tory rhetoric, her actual proposed policies are far outside centrism. This includes the Harrisite policies of a minimum wage freeze and a 60-hour work week, and most importantly, a flat tax, which for all the meowing over human rights in the PC leadership race, is by far the most politically toxic proposal to emerge (and tellingly, is the most visible economic policy in a race whose policy issues have largely been defined by the radical Randy Hillier).
In my experience in talking to my PC supporting friends, Elliott is not particularly popular because of her Red Tory rhetoric. Blizzard says that Liberals would fear Elliott the most, and perhaps in the long-run, she would pose the most threat, but looking in the medium-term to 2011, I believe Elliott would be rather good for the Ontario Liberals, because of the difficulty I believe she would have in getting the party election ready and behind her leadership. Quite simply, the same right-wing flank that so often made John Tory's hold on the party difficult, or influenced him into taking more right-wing positions than he was comfortable taking, would continue to cause trouble under Elliott.
Many Common Sense Revolutionaries of the Hudak camp or the rural malcontents of the Hillier camp would chaff at the prospect of being led into an election by another moderate GTA'er, and despite Elliott laying down her so called Path to Victory, I think Elliott will find it difficult to enact her plan when significant chunks of the party see her as either John Tory/Dalton McGuinty (and many Ontario PC's say they had difficulty telling them apart) in a skirt, including the nearly 200,000 PC voters who either stayed home last election or cast a protest vote for the Green Party.
Of course, as voting starts today this could all be for nothing and one of her more right wing competitors will win.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
2008 candidate Tyler Banham in Hamilton Mountain. (Declared)
Former MPP and provincial cabinet minister Marie Bountrogianni in Hamilton Mountain (rumoured)
Bob Bratina, a popular city councillor and radio host in Hamilton Centre (rumoured)
2004 candidate Debbie Zimmerman in Niagara West—Glanbrook (declared)
Kitchener mayor Carl Zehr in Kitchener—Conestoga (rumoured)
2008 candidate Jacquie Gauthier in London-Fanshawe (declared)
I've also heard that Larry Di Ianna in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek and Dan MacLean in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale will almost certainly be the candidates in their respective ridings.
Monday, June 15, 2009
A Tim Hortons drinking Canadian (the only true Canadians, in Toryland) but he's using the hated Human Rights Commissions to make his appeal.
2008 candidate Steve Clarke in Simcoe North (declared, green lighted)
Former La Presse columnist and Le Soleil editor Alain Dubuc in Outremont (rumoured)
2008 candidate Sébastien Dhavernas in Outremont (rumoured)
Entrepreneur Marc Bruneau in Jeanne-Le Ber (rumoured)
2008 candidate Ken Cole in Prince Edwards-Hastings (declared)
And from the comments section of my last blog post:
Former MP and 2006/2008 candidate Patty Torsney in Burlington (rumoured)
Former Hamilton mayor and 2008 candidate Larry Di Ianna in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (rumoured)
Friday, June 12, 2009
Liberal nominations are picking up, and a trend is developing of ex-MP's/candidates running again is developing. The following ex-MP/candidates have either been formally nominated, or have declared they are running, or are rumoured to run again in Ontario:
-Andrew Telegdi: Kitchener-Waterloo (nominated)
-Bob Speller: Haldiman-Norfolk (rumoured)
-John Maloney : Welland (only declared candidate, looks to be acclaimed)
-Don McArthur (2008 candidate): Thunder Bay-Superior North (declared)
-Omar Alghabra: Mississauga-Erindale (nominated)
-Ray Simard: Saint Boniface (declared)
-Dan Boudria (2008 candidate): Glengarry-Presscott-Russell (Rumoured)
-Marc Godbout: Ottawa-Orleans (Rumoured)
-Nancy Charest (2008 candidate): Haute-Gaspésie – La Mitis – Matane – Matapédia (Only declared candidate, looks to be acclaimed)
-Tracy Parsons (2008 candidate): Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley (Declared)
-Denis Paradis: Brome – Missisquoi (Only declared candidate, looks to be acclaimed)
-Garth Turner: Either Halton or Dufferin-Caledon (Rumoured)
-Lloyd St.-Amand: Brant (declared)
-Penny Collenette (2008 candidate): Ottawa Centre (Rumoured)
-David Pratt: Ottawa West-Nepean (Declared - I think)
-Lui Temelkovski: Oak Ridges-Markham (Nominated)
-Joyce Morroco (2008 candidate): Niagara Falls (Rumoured)
-Karen Redman: Kitchener-Centre (Nominated)
-Tim Fugard (2008 candidate): Sarnia-Lambton (Delcared)
-Ken Boshcoff: Thunder Bay-Rainy River (Declared)
-Marcos G. Simard (2008 candidate): Trois-Rivières (Rumoured)
-Serge Lafrenière (2006 candidate in a different riding): Trois-Rivieres (Rumoured)
-Tina Keeper: Churchill (Rumoured)
-Don Bell: North Vancouver (Rumoured)
-Tim Jones (2008 candidate): Newmarket-Aurora (Declared)
-Eleni Bakopanos: Ahuntsic (Declared)
-Rodger Valley: Kenora (Declared)
-Marjory Loveys (2008 candidate): Leeds-Grenville (Declared)
-Ian Sutherland (2008 candidate): West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country (Rumoured)
Declared candidates who aren't ex MP's/Candidates
-Chatham city councillor Steve Pickard: Chatham-Kent – Essex
-Former ministerial policy aide Gary Holman: Sudbury
-City councillor and social planning council executive director Janet Gasparini: Sudbury
-Lawyer Gerry Guimond: Sudbury
-Liberal backroomer Kit Spence: Saainch-Gulf Islands
-Riding association director Renée Hetherington: Saainch-Gulf Islands
-Former National Director of the Liberal Party Greg Fergus: Pontiac
-Financial planner Judith Cane: Ottawa-Orleans
-Local lawyer David Bertschi: Ottawa-Orleans
-City councillor Rainer Bloess: Ottawa-Orleans
-City councillor Anne Marie Gillis: Sarnia-Lambton
-Riding president Jeff May: Dufferin-Caledon
-Young Liberal and Darfur activist Jonathan Pedneault: Longueuil – Pierre-Boucher
-Ward councillour Chris Emanual: Newmarket-Aurora
-Party activist Veronique Arsenault: Miramachi
-Party activist Maryanne Kampouris: Glengarry-Prescott-Russell (I am not sure if she has formally declared or is just "rumoured)
Upcoming nominations with no candidate information I could find:
-Alfred-Pellan (I was suprised I couldn't find anything on this, as it is a fairly winnable riding, I think we came within 10% of it, and with Liberal numbers in Quebec up, it is definately on the target list)
Other rumoured non ex-MP/candidate names:
-Former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge (probably somewhere in Ontario, perhaps a safe Toronto seat if any incumbant retire)
-Soon to be former Assembly of First Nations National Chief Phil Fontaine (probably somewhere in Manitoba, possibly Churchill)
-Retired CHCH-TV anchor Dan McLean in Ancaster – Dundas – Flamborough – Westdale
-Former provincial Liberal cabinet minister Jean Leclerc (given his Quebec City background, possibly a QC area riding, Louis Hebert possibly)
- Hamilton lawyer Andrew Iler in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
-City councillor Andrew Gill in St. Catherines
-Former Liberal National Director Steve McKinnon in Gatineau
-Former ADQ turned PLQ MNA Pierre-Michel Auger in Trois-Rivieres
-Riding President Jean Boulet in Trois-Riveriers
-Local employment centre director Nathalie Diamond in Trois-Riveres
-Former NWT territorial Premier Joe Handley in Western Arctic
-Former Party President Mike Eizenga in London West
-Former Party President Doug Ferguson in London West
If anyone knows of any one I omitted, or anyone who is no longer running, let me know
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Full version: http://i39.tinypic.com/2exohg6.png
Brought to you by the great people of either the Elliot or Klees campaigns (I think it might have been the Klees campaign though), this was being handed out outside the Ottawa leadership debate tonight. I was unable to actually watch the debate myself, so can any intrepid PC readers tell me if it actually hit bingo, and if so, if people actually cried out "Hudak Bingo!"?
Monday, June 8, 2009
Given that one of the images the Tories used against Dion in the last election was "not to roll the dice" with him, this is pretty ironic. Raitt was "ready to roll the dice" on the isotope crisis, and that that the crisis was "sexy" and "all about money."
We had one Tory cabinet minister earlier wishing for the death of a Liberal MP from a disease which popped up under his watch, now we have another belittling her own governments mismanagement of the isotope situation by calling it "sexy." As the son of a parent who had to undergo chemotherapy, I would like to tell Ms. Raitt that there is nothing "sexy" about her handling of herself and her government on this issue, reaching back to the firing of Linda Keen.
And, what does Raitt have to say about her fellow cabinet mate, Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq?
"...it’s hard for her to come out of a co-operative government into this rough-and-tumble. She had a question in the House yesterday, or two days ago, that planked. I really hope she never gets anything hot.”
While her now fired aide is critical of Ms. Aglukkaq's ministerial handling, saying "you need to also demonstrate leadership as a minister."
How long until Harper reverses his decision to not accept Raitt's resignation, hours or days?
According to one unconfirmed report*, the federal Minister of Natural Resources was recorded making some less than flattering comments about her cabinet colleague, Leona Aglukkaq, the fed Health Minister who entered parliament for the first time last year as the MP for Nunavut.
It will be verrrrrry interesting to see if these allegations can be confirmed, particularly as Raitt, who is now seen as not exactly a cabinet heavyweight after her first nuclear meltdown, seems to be taking pot shots as Aglukkaq, who won praise across the political spectrum for her handling of the swine flu, and for being a relatively good minister, particularly by Harper standards.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
On Wednesday a private members bill, C-307, put forward by Bloc MP Pierre Paquette, was voted down by the combined forces of the Conservatives and Liberals. The NDP supported the bill. What the bill sought to do was have Quebec's Charter of the French Language, often called Bill 101, applied to federally regulated businesses in Quebec such as banks or radio stations.
While having Bill 101 apply to federal agencies/regulated businesses in Quebec is a longstanding BQ rallying cry, but since when has the NDP supported it? Given that having federal business done in Quebec be in French only would basically void the idea of official national bilingualism, since when has the NDP been in favour of selling out one of the greatest things about Canada?
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
The NP shows it as being Elliot 35%, Hudak 24%, Hillier 22%, and Klees 20%, with 43% undecided.
If these numbers are true, this would seem to blow the established dynamic out of the water, with Elliot leaping past Hudak, and Hillier being massive underestimated along with Klees being overestimated.
Perez Hudak has a different take: http://www.perezhudak.com/index.php?e=125
Perez Hudak heard the actual Ipsos-Reid release shows a lot of undecided voters (43%), and a lot who wouldn't indicate a second-ballot choice (23%).
As well, the horse race numbers being reported are an averaging of first and second ballot preferences for each candidate. 35% of PC supporters would select Christine Elliott in their top-two choices, 19% as their first choice and 28% as their second.Twenty-four per cent would choose Tim Hudak on their top two ballots, 13% on the first and 18% on the second. Randy Hillier is given 22% per cent average support, getting 14% on the first ballot and 14% second ballot support. And finally 20% of Tory supporters would choose Frank Klees as one of their top-two choices, with 11% first choice support and 17% second choice support.
This would demonstrate a closer race, and with the dynamics of 43% of voters undecided, a lot is still up in the air. We can maybe draw something from the spin of the Hudak's campaign statement:
This latest poll confirms that our Party still has lots of work ahead to get ready for the next provincial election. It states that our Party trails the Liberals by 13 percent. 43% of people who identify themselves as Progressive Conservative voters were unsure of who they would even vote for in this leadership race. Clearly, this demonstrates the work that needs to be done by our Party in terms of our Opposition presence and recognition.
(That they comment on this second shows that to a degree at least, they recognize the validity of the poll, rather than dismissing it out-right)
With respect to this latest poll, it is important to note that the poll did not survey actual members of our Party; it only surveyed people who indicated that they would vote for our Party if a provincial election were held today. Most of the research was taken before the May 14th membership cut-off. And Ipsos-Reid admits in its press release that because they did not have access to the Party membership lists, the poll is not intended to be predictive of the actual voting PC membership.
(With a poll based off likely PC voters as opposed to members, we could maybe draw some conclusions. Perhaps they hit a Toronto heavy sample of more moderate PC voters as opposed to pro-Hudak rural/suburban Common Sense Revolutionaries. Perhaps amongst the general population (even a PC-likely population) Elliot has higher name recognition than Hudak due to both her aggressive media campaign and the fact her husband is Jim Flaherty.)
The rest of the statement are the standard shows of strength of the campaign, they have the most endorsements, claim to have signed up the most members, have the best ground game, etc.
Regardless of how accurate this poll turns out to be, for now, at least, it feeds the narrative that Hudak has lost his edge and Elliot is on the offensive.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
While the $308 prize alludes us, we have a very good shot at keeping the $75 most viewed prize, so keep watching: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MevlKbbGzdM
Be sure to vote for your favourite video at: http://www.liberal.ca/en/get-involved/video-contest
A new estimate out by TD Canada shows that Harper and Flaherty will continue the record setting ways when it comes to managing the recession and the economy: Mislead Canadians and ring huge deficits. TD expects $162-billion deficits over 5 years, and that Flaherty's predictions of being $700-million in surplus in 5 years is off by about $19-billion (or a biggest goof/lie than Flaherty's prediction of a $36-billion deficit and ending up with $50-billion).
Isn't great to have "fiscal conservatives" running the show?
Monday, June 1, 2009
The momentum clearly seems to be going the NDP's way, with the poll pegging them at 44%. Even with some of that number being inflated by racking up majorities in downtown Halifax, it would be very difficult for the NDP not to get a majority with such a vote. Liberal leader Stephen McNeil says the Liberals have some internal numbers that suggest a more competitive race, and this poll does not confirm one potential bright spot for the Liberals: Unless a massive PC recovery takes place during the last week, this election is no longer being fought on the PC record, but on the potential for an NDP government, and with the PC's bleeding support (indeed, every poll taken near/during the election has shown them getting gradually lower and lower)everywhere, the Liberals are the clear alternative to the NDP, and if the NDP loses any support, it will probably go to the Liberals. Stephen McNeil looks to at the very least, make solid gains off the 2006 result, and should have a solid and larger Liberal caucus behind him.