Monday, June 1, 2009

Nova Scotia headed for NDP majority?

The previous polls out of Nova Scotia had shown a narrow NDP lead, with the Liberals in second and the governing Conservatives headed for third place, and this poll: gives the NDP a huge lead over both the Liberals and the PC's, although the Liberals maintain second place. If the trend holds, it would be the first time since the start of the decade long rule of the PC's that a ruling party would be pushed to third place, after the John Hamm PC's knocked the Liberals out of government in 1999. As much as I can tell, that election was also the last time a governing party in Canada was pushed down to third place (if anyone can correct me go ahead).

The momentum clearly seems to be going the NDP's way, with the poll pegging them at 44%. Even with some of that number being inflated by racking up majorities in downtown Halifax, it would be very difficult for the NDP not to get a majority with such a vote. Liberal leader Stephen McNeil says the Liberals have some internal numbers that suggest a more competitive race, and this poll does not confirm one potential bright spot for the Liberals: Unless a massive PC recovery takes place during the last week, this election is no longer being fought on the PC record, but on the potential for an NDP government, and with the PC's bleeding support (indeed, every poll taken near/during the election has shown them getting gradually lower and lower)everywhere, the Liberals are the clear alternative to the NDP, and if the NDP loses any support, it will probably go to the Liberals. Stephen McNeil looks to at the very least, make solid gains off the 2006 result, and should have a solid and larger Liberal caucus behind him.

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