Tim Hudak 4226-40.8%
Frank Klees 3294-31.8%
Christine Elliott 2829-27.3%
The actual results:
Hudak 4128 -39.9%
So I was pretty accurate, it looks like the 70-20-10 prediction for Hillier's vote might have been closer to 75-25-basically ziltch. The projected 9% gap between Hudak and Klees is 8.1%, but Klees would still need a very very big swing towards him from Elliot. A 60-40 split for Klees would still at this point end in a Hudak victory.
Tim Hudak - 5289 - 51.2%
Frank Klees- 5041 - 48.8%
So while Klees did marginally better than I thought he would on the second ballot, pretty much anything under 65% of Elliott's vote would give Hudak the victory.
This is what 65% of Elliott's vote to Klees would look like:
Frank Klees- 5168- 50.2%
Tim Hudak- 5144- 49.8%
As to what I actually think will happen, I'll go out on a limb and say Klees gets 55% of Elliott's vote.
Tim Hudak - 5434 - 52.6%
Frank Klees - 4896 - 47.4%
So I predict Tim Hudak will be the next Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario leader.
I forgot to add a map of the 2nd ballot winners, so here we go. Only minor changes. All 3 of Hillier's wins go to Hudak, Klees breaks the tie in Davenport, Elliot takes Etobickoe Centre from Klees, Hudak picks up Windsor West and Northumberland-Quinte West from Elliott, Lambton -Kent - Middlesex from Klees.