Saturday, June 27, 2009

2nd PC ballot results

My prediction:

Tim Hudak 4226-40.8%
Frank Klees 3294-31.8%
Christine Elliott 2829-27.3%

The actual results:
Hudak 4128 -39.9%
Klees 3299-31.8%
Elliott 2903-28.0%

So I was pretty accurate, it looks like the 70-20-10 prediction for Hillier's vote might have been closer to 75-25-basically ziltch. The projected 9% gap between Hudak and Klees is 8.1%, but Klees would still need a very very big swing towards him from Elliot. A 60-40 split for Klees would still at this point end in a Hudak victory.

Tim Hudak - 5289 - 51.2%
Frank Klees- 5041 - 48.8%

So while Klees did marginally better than I thought he would on the second ballot, pretty much anything under 65% of Elliott's vote would give Hudak the victory.

This is what 65% of Elliott's vote to Klees would look like:
Frank Klees- 5168- 50.2%
Tim Hudak- 5144- 49.8%

As to what I actually think will happen, I'll go out on a limb and say Klees gets 55% of Elliott's vote.

Tim Hudak - 5434 - 52.6%
Frank Klees - 4896 - 47.4%

So I predict Tim Hudak will be the next Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario leader.

I forgot to add a map of the 2nd ballot winners, so here we go. Only minor changes. All 3 of Hillier's wins go to Hudak, Klees breaks the tie in Davenport, Elliot takes Etobickoe Centre from Klees, Hudak picks up Windsor West and Northumberland-Quinte West from Elliott, Lambton -Kent - Middlesex from Klees.

2 comments:

Jacob said...

"So I was pretty accurate, it looks like the 70-20-10 prediction for Hillier's vote might have been closer to 75-25-basically ziltch."

Maybe I'm reading the numbers wrong but it looks more like 60-20-20 to me.

It looks like Hudak got 617 of Hillier's votes, Klees 206 and Elliot 175 (with apparently 15 no second votes). That'd be 60.9%-20.3%-17.3%.

The Liberal Scarf said...

Upon closer inspection, these are loafers.

Also, your numbers seem better. Oh well, I never claimed to be a math whiz.