What can the results of the last Ontario PC leadership race tell us about the current one? That Elliott could be hard to beat

Long-time readers will remember when I did some fairly in-depth coverage of the 2009 Ontario PC leadership race. I was reading over some blog posts from that era, bit of a trip down memory lane. I kind of forgot Hudak's big selling point to grassroots conservatives was pledging to eliminate Human Rights Tribunals, Christine Elliott running on a flat tax to increase her appeal beyond just red Tories, and of course Hudak Bingo!

The map at the top of this post shows the first round results from the 2009 leadership results, coloured in by which candidate won plurality support in each riding. As a reminder, the PC's used a weighted one member one vote system, so every riding had equal support, from Conservative strongholds in rural Ontario to weak seats in downtown Toronto that even during a leadership race might only have a few dozen members. Hudak is in dark blue, Klees is in light blue, Elliott in green, Hillier in red. You can expand the map by clicking on it.

So, looking at these results, (and my analysis from 2009) what can we learn from the 2009 race that might be applicable to the current Ontario PC race?

• Elliott, the presumptive front-runner has an advantage in the 905/416, since no other serious candidate from the area seems likely to enter the race. Looking at the results from 2009, Frank Klees was very successful in signing up new members from cultural communities in the 905, as he dominated Peel region, his home York region, and the suburbs of Toronto. Elliott did well in most of the downtown core and her home base of Durham region, but was unable to make gains in a lot of the inner 905 belt. With no other serious candidate likely to emerge from Toronto/905, Elliott could dominate much of the GTA, which would go a long way to help establish her front-runner credentials
• Breaking into the GTA will be the challenge for any of the other potential candidates, who would all have somewhat of a regional base, but would likely have to dominate their home bases. Lisa Macleod, Vic Fedeli and Monte McNaughton would have home bases in the East, North and Southwest respectively. Now, in 2009 Tim Hudak was able to win the leadership without doing particularly well in the GTA (he won a few scattered seats and split Halton region with Elliot) because in large part he dominated his home base of Niagara/Southern Ontario, but he also had strong results in Northern Ontario and in more rural ridings across the other parts of the province as well. Having favourite sons/daughters from each of the North, Southwest and East could make it difficult for any of them to establish province-wide movements, although I could see Lisa Macleod, who has toured the province pretty extensively and has been fairly high profile as opposition MPPs go being perhaps best suited to pull it off. 
• If Macleod might be the strongest candidate against Elliott, she'll have to take some caution from looking at these maps. Presumably she would be the Eastern Ontario favourite daughter, and that means she would need to build a coalition of PC supporters ranging from downtown Ottawa moderates to Randy Hillier supporters from the rural areas. Macleod might have to tack to the right both to rally the non insignificant numbers of very conservative conservatives in Eastern Ontario, but also to try and establish a solid Blue Tory vs. Red Tory match-up against Elliott to establish her credentials as the main right-of-Elliott candidate. 
• Monte McNaughton, who could be a Southern/Southwestern Ontario favourite son was also a champion of right-to-work legislation that caused Hudak some headaches but also could endear him to the more conservative minded activists who are important in leadership races. With Monte needing to dominate Southwestern Ontario to establish himself as a legitimate contender, and Macleod needing to target rural Southwestern conservatives to establish herself as the main right-wing contender against Elliott, the membership sign up and organizational battles that could happen between Macleod and McNaughton in that part of the province could be interesting
• With that in mind, Elliott has the clearest path to victory: Dominate the GTA, and hold her own in other parts of the province. MPP endorsements don't mean everything  (MPP endorsements can have a pretty big range of importance on the local membership base, sometimes big, sometimes not so much) but that she has endorsements already from MPPs from her home competitors bases (Norm Miller from Northern Ontario, Todd Smith from Eastern Ontario, Jeff Yurek and Michael Harris from the Southwest amongst others) bodes well.

More shots fired in Ontario PC civil war as Education Critic Lisa MacLeod savages Transportation Critic Frank Klees on Twitter

As the Ontario PC civil war over Tim Hudak's continued leadership rages on, here is what PC Education Critic (and many say potential future leadership candidate Lisa MacLeod) had to say to her fellow PC frontbencher and Transportation Critic Frank Klees.

Next time the Hudak PC's ask to be taken seriously on the transit file, remember that this is the opinion his Transportation critic is held in by one of his highest profile MPPs.

Hey you, register to vote for the LPC leadership!

The deadline to register for the LPC leadership vote is this Thursday! Register now, it takes less than 2 minutes to make sure your voice is heard as part of the most open leadership race in Canadian history!

Just click this link for registration help!

Mississauga News endorses Charles Sousa for Ontario Liberal Leader, says his private sector experience is "invaluable"

Like the Sousa campaign on Facebook!
Follow Charles on Twitter!
Follow the Sousa campaign on Twitter!

A great endorsement from the major paper of Ontario's third largest city!

It’s time to put Charles in charge.

We endorse Sousa, the 54-year-old MPP for Mississauga South who has held three Cabinet posts since first being elected in 2007. He has a 20-year background in banking that could prove invaluable in dealing with Ontario’s financial challenges.

Read more here!

Youth support from across Ontario for Charles Sousa!

Like the Sousa campaign on Facebook!
Follow Charles on Twitter!

I remember when I first started volunteering for Charles Sousa back in 2007. Charles had just been nominated as the Liberal candidate for the fall general election, following the departure of Tim Peterson from the Liberal caucus. Charles was a first time candidate running in a riding which had never voted Liberal provincially before 2003 against an incumbent the PC's were treating as a star candidate. I've seen as Charles' campaign has grown from his kitchen table and the back of his van to a province wide effort, and that's why I'm so proud to stand with Young Liberals from across Ontario who Charles has inspired to get involved.

Below is the release on Charles' youth support. I encourage you to share it across Twitter and Facebook if you support Charles.

http://www.votesousa.ca/youth-support

In the week leading up to the Ontario Liberal Party’s Leadership Convention on January 25^th, Sousa’s campaign continues to build with Sousa’s message of real renewal which has been resonating with youth from across the province.

“I am very grateful to have the support of so many engaged young people”, said Sousa. “Their enthusiasm and commitment to our party and our province is vital and extremely encouraging. Without them, there is no real renewal.”

With the opposition raising the spectre of another provincial election so soon after the last one, Sousa’s ability to lead the party is top of mind for many Liberals.

“Charles is a man I can see as Premier of Ontario, and someone I can see standing up there, defending our record against Horwath and Hudak. I think he is the right choice for these times and I am proud to support him,” said Roy Sengupta, Member of the Ottawa Centre Provincial Liberal Association.

His focus on creating jobs and growing the economy is resonating strongly with many students and recent graduates.

“Charles is running to be Ontario’s “Jobs Premier” and his plan to create and save jobs will greatly benefit recent university and college graduates like me,” said Tyler Anderson, studying at York University.

“He had me at ‘Jobs’,” added Abdullah Sherif, a Young Liberal from Scarborough Centre.

For others, it’s his social conscience and work at the community level that convinced them that Sousa is the right candidate for Premier.

“Charles inspires me to be a better person and to continue to get involved within the community. His loyalty to the people and his dedication to make a difference is why I have chosen to support him,” said Jessica Cabral, a Young Liberal from Mississauga-Brampton South.

Warren Bradley Clarke, VP Federal of the UTM Liberals said “Charles is the answer. His devotion, kind heart and strength are what distinguish him from the rest. ”

All agree that his leadership style and open, honest and inclusive campaign were key in their decision to support Sousa.

“I’ve been deeply impressed with the ideas-oriented and forward-looking campaign Charles has run. As a lifelong Mississauga resident I know how hard Charles has worked to represent his community and know that the whole province will benefit from his enthusiasm and determination,” said Kevin Draper, VP of the Mississauga East-Cooksville Federal Liberal Association and Director of the Trinity-Spadina Provincial Liberal Association.

“Charles is a great listener and great leader. I have complete confidence in his abilities to put this province on the track to great success,” said Brian Santos, Past President of the Cambridge Young Liberals.

Many of today’s endorsements come from delegates to the Ontario Liberal Party’s upcoming leadership convention in Toronto on the weekend of the 25^th-27^th.

Sousa is running to be Ontario’s Jobs Premier and has proposed several concrete steps we can take to create jobs now. For more information about his plan or to contact his campaign, visit www.votesousa.ca.

Vote for a jobs Premier, vote for Charles Sousa at your LEM today!

He's proven he can win. He has the business experience and financial acumen Ontario families trust. He's put forward bold ideas for renewing our party and growing the economy.

But he can't do it without you.

If you're an Ontario Liberal Party member and live in Easter, Central, or Northern Ontario, you need to get out to vote today! Here is a list of ridings and clubs that will hold LEMs today, and if you aren't sure where to vote, check out http://www.votesousa.ca/lem

EASTERN


Carleton-Mississippi Mills

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock

Kingston and the Islands

Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington

Leeds-Grenville

Nepean-Carleton

Northumberland-Quinte West

Ottawa Centre

Ottawa South

Ottawa West-Nepean

Ottawa-Orleans

Ottawa-Vanier

Peterborough

Prince Edward-Hastings

Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke

Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry

Nepean Women's Club

Ottawa-Orleans Women's Club

Carelton University Student Club

Queen's University Student Club

University of Ottawa Student Club



CENTRAL

Ajax-Pickering

Barrie

Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Brampton West

Brampton-Springdale

Dufferin-Caledon

Durham

Halton

Markham-Unionville

Mississauga East-Cooksville

Mississauga South

Mississauga-Brampton South

Mississauga-Erindale

Mississauga-Streetsville

Newmarket-Aurora

Oak Ridges-Markham

Oakville

Oshawa

Richmond Hill

Simcoe North

Simcoe-Grey

Thornhill

Vaughan

Whitby-Oshawa

York-Simcoe

Southern York Region Women's Club

University of Toronto - Mississauga



NORTHERN

Algoma-Manitoulin

Kenora-Rainy River

Nickel Belt

Nipissing

Parry Sound-Muskoka

Sault Ste. Marie

Sudbury

Thunder Bay-Atikokan

Thunder Bay-Atikokan

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Timiskaming-Cochrane

Timiskaming-Cochrane

Timmins-James Bay

Thunder Bay Area Women's Club

Laurentian University Student Club

Nippissing University Student Club

Follow Charles during the debate on Twitter!
Like him on Facebook to keep in touch!

Less than an hour to go before the first Ontario Liberal leadership debate! You can tune in to http://www.ontarioliberal.ca/leadership to hear Charles talk about his bold new ideas to create jobs like taking action on high speed rail, renewing the Ontario Liberal Party by empowering riding associations and individual MPP's, and ensuring local support for energy projects.

So like Charles on Facebook, follow him on Twitter, and watch the debate!

Liberals need to renew our contract with the people of Ontario. Charles Sousa can get them to sign.

When Premier McGuinty announced his resignation, he said that it was time for new ideas and a renewal of the Ontario Liberal Party. After having some time to think about what kind of renewal we want to see in our party, I realized that I've had a front seat to seeing the positive impact that new energy and new ideas can have for the past 5 years.

The old Mississauga South was the epitome of old Tory Ontario. Largely mono cultural, it was one of the safest seats for the Ontario PC's in the whole province. But perhaps no community has been more positively impacted by change. Mississauga South is a vibrant, diverse, growing community, and Charles Sousa has been a strong representative for it. We've been great advances in Mississauga South with Charles as our MPP, including investments at Trillium Health Centre, new schools like Janet McDougald PS, progress on the Lakeview site, and a strong local economy helped by innovative tax reforms supported by Charles.

On a personal level, Charles also represented the new Ontario that families have built across the province. A successful businessman and the son of immigrants who escaped political repression, Charles represents the opportunity that this province holds. With his strong background in business and finance, but also having a strong understanding of the need to have strong and caring social services that families can rely on, Charles knows that we have to take a balanced approach to continue our strong action to grow our economy economy and renew our public service.

We've got big challenges to face as a party and a province, but I know Charles can win. I was canvassing with him in 2007 right from the get go when things looked pretty tough - we'd just lost the first Liberal MPP our riding had ever known, and we had just months before the election. But Charles knew how important it was that we get to every door and talk about the importance of protecting our public schools. As I watched the campaign grow and grow, from the back of his van to the campaign office on Lakeshore, I saw how he brought people from every community in Mississauga South together to support Liberal ideas, and on election day, Charles proved the pundits, who said he wouldn't chance wrong, winning a strong victory. In 2011, he worked hard again to renew his contract with the people of Mississauga South, becoming the first ever Liberal MPP to be re-elected in our riding.

He has the experience as Minister of Labour and Minister of Citizenship and Immigration. He has the knowledge about the economy to create jobs for families. He understands families coming to Ontario deserve strong, stable public services like health care and education. And he's a proven winner. If Charles Sousa decides to run for Ontario Liberal leader, he'll have my support and I urge you to consider him as well.

#

Leadership on the economy

Premier Dalton McGuinty has said the tax rate on new investment by small businesses will be reduced by 55%. Ontario's economic strength depends on the strength of our businesses, large and small. That's why Ontario Liberals are working with small businesses to free up some of their resources so they can invest back into themselves and grow even stronger.

When the changes are fully implemented, the tax rate on new investment for small businesses will be reduced by 55% — good news for employers such as farms, retailers and smaller manufacturers. When small businesses succeed, we all succeed. They bring a lot to Ontario communities — good jobs, and great products.

The Ontario Liberal platform, "Forward. Together." includes the next steps to help small businesses. Ontario Liberals will:

-Triple the number of successful start-ups in the next five years by providing incentives for risk capital

-Enhance and increase support for young entrepreneurs, and for small and medium businesses to access new trade markets

-Create a new Southwestern Ontario Economic Development Fund and make the Eastern Ontario Development Fund and the Northern Ontario Heritage Fund permanent.

Ontario Liberals have already cut the business tax rate from 5.5 per cent to 4.5 — which will fall to 4.0 per cent under the Ontario Liberal Plan.

The Hudak PCs $14 billion hole would also mean deep cuts to education, depriving us of the highly skilled workers who attract new business to Ontario. The Horwath NDP would introduce a crushing $9 billion in job-killing taxes. Both would take Ontario off track at the worst time.

Ontario Liberals are working to make Ontario the place to be when it comes to building your business. Only Ontario Liberals have a plan to keep Ontario moving forward, together.

Leadership for Ontario

"You want the politics of anger, resentment and division? That makes you feel good? Then Mr. Hudak is your guy. If you want to do things so that we can grow stronger together, build something better together - then that's what we're putting on the table."

It's Hudak

No word on if riding by riding results are forthcoming, but here was the final result:


Tim Hudak-5,606-54.25%
Frank Klees-4,644-44.94%

My prediction was:

Tim Hudak - 5434 - 52.6%
Frank Klees - 4896 - 47.4%

I'm too lazy to do the math exactly unlike previous times, the vote basically split, with Hudak getting a slightly larger piece of the pie, and thus confirming what Perez Hudak reported earlier.

2nd PC ballot results

My prediction:

Tim Hudak 4226-40.8%
Frank Klees 3294-31.8%
Christine Elliott 2829-27.3%

The actual results:
Hudak 4128 -39.9%
Klees 3299-31.8%
Elliott 2903-28.0%

So I was pretty accurate, it looks like the 70-20-10 prediction for Hillier's vote might have been closer to 75-25-basically ziltch. The projected 9% gap between Hudak and Klees is 8.1%, but Klees would still need a very very big swing towards him from Elliot. A 60-40 split for Klees would still at this point end in a Hudak victory.

Tim Hudak - 5289 - 51.2%
Frank Klees- 5041 - 48.8%

So while Klees did marginally better than I thought he would on the second ballot, pretty much anything under 65% of Elliott's vote would give Hudak the victory.

This is what 65% of Elliott's vote to Klees would look like:
Frank Klees- 5168- 50.2%
Tim Hudak- 5144- 49.8%

As to what I actually think will happen, I'll go out on a limb and say Klees gets 55% of Elliott's vote.

Tim Hudak - 5434 - 52.6%
Frank Klees - 4896 - 47.4%

So I predict Tim Hudak will be the next Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario leader.

I forgot to add a map of the 2nd ballot winners, so here we go. Only minor changes. All 3 of Hillier's wins go to Hudak, Klees breaks the tie in Davenport, Elliot takes Etobickoe Centre from Klees, Hudak picks up Windsor West and Northumberland-Quinte West from Elliott, Lambton -Kent - Middlesex from Klees.

PC predictions, looks like Hudak has it

Elliott is done like dishwater. She had to finish ahead of Klees to have a hope of leap-frogging Hudak, and now the only way she could prevent being bumped off the next ballot would be to get the bulk of Randy Hillier's second place votes, which given that they are at opposite ends of the PC spectrum, and Hillier's vocal endorsement of Hudak, is simply not going to happen.

Let's say that Hillier's support breaks down into something like 70-20-10 for Hudak/Klees/Elliott, that leaves a second ballot looking something like this:

Tim Hudak 4226-40.8%
Frank Klees 3294-31.8%
Christine Elliott 2829-27.3%

This now puts Elliott's near 3000 votes in play. Perez Hudak is reporting that Elliott sources are saying that their own supporters lean Hudak, which would give Hudak the victory no question. However, given the mutual antipathy between the Elliott and Hudak campaigns, particularly over the the last couple of weeks, I can see this being spin. Let's assume the whole Klees/Elliott axis (interesting how it ended up Klees/Elliott, and not the predicted Elliott/Klees) is somewhat existent, and lets split her vote 60-40 to Klees.


Tim Hudak- 5360 -51.7%
Frank Klees- 4990-48.2%

As we can see, a very close race, and Elliott's support will be crucial. If Klees wants to win, he will need the Elliott vote split to be more like 70-30, which would give us this:

Frank Klees- 5274-50.9%
Tim Hudak- 5075-49%

Klees getting 70% of the Elliott vote might be wishful thinking, and as the number show, he would still barely squeak out a victory. What this means is that the people calling Randy Hillier the "kingmaker" would seem to be correct if these predictions come true, as Hillier's support going overwhelmingly to Hudak would give Hudak the space he needs to survive all but a tsunami of Elliott support going to Klees.

Oh, and just for the sake of having my prediction in if what Perez Hudak is reporting is correct, here are the last ballot results if Elliott support breaks in the direction of Hudak to the tune of say, 55-45.

Tim Hudak-5782 -55.8%
Frank Klees-4567 - 44.2%

Let's see how things work out.

Tory first ballot results in

Hudak: 3511 Klees: 3093 Elliott: 2728 Hillier: 1013

Riding by riding winners here: http://www.unitedandstrong.ca/2009/06/27/first-ballot-results/

Suprisingly strong showing by Klees. Hillier only wins 3 ridings, and has endorsed Hudak. Looks like the prediction of the Hudak/Hillier axis vs. the Klees/Elliott axis is coming true.

Hudak Bingo!

Full version: http://i39.tinypic.com/2exohg6.png

Brought to you by the great people of either the Elliot or Klees campaigns (I think it might have been the Klees campaign though), this was being handed out outside the Ottawa leadership debate tonight. I was unable to actually watch the debate myself, so can any intrepid PC readers tell me if it actually hit bingo, and if so, if people actually cried out "Hudak Bingo!"?

The Crash of Tim Hudak?

New PC leadership poll out shows some stunning numbers: http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/story.html?id=1656671

The NP shows it as being Elliot 35%, Hudak 24%, Hillier 22%, and Klees 20%, with 43% undecided.

If these numbers are true, this would seem to blow the established dynamic out of the water, with Elliot leaping past Hudak, and Hillier being massive underestimated along with Klees being overestimated.

Perez Hudak has a different take: http://www.perezhudak.com/index.php?e=125

Perez Hudak heard the actual Ipsos-Reid release shows a lot of undecided voters (43%), and a lot who wouldn't indicate a second-ballot choice (23%).

As well, the horse race numbers being reported are an averaging of first and second ballot preferences for each candidate. 35% of PC supporters would select Christine Elliott in their top-two choices, 19% as their first choice and 28% as their second.Twenty-four per cent would choose Tim Hudak on their top two ballots, 13% on the first and 18% on the second. Randy Hillier is given 22% per cent average support, getting 14% on the first ballot and 14% second ballot support. And finally 20% of Tory supporters would choose Frank Klees as one of their top-two choices, with 11% first choice support and 17% second choice support.

This would demonstrate a closer race, and with the dynamics of 43% of voters undecided, a lot is still up in the air. We can maybe draw something from the spin of the Hudak's campaign statement:

This latest poll confirms that our Party still has lots of work ahead to get ready for the next provincial election. It states that our Party trails the Liberals by 13 percent. 43% of people who identify themselves as Progressive Conservative voters were unsure of who they would even vote for in this leadership race. Clearly, this demonstrates the work that needs to be done by our Party in terms of our Opposition presence and recognition.

(That they comment on this second shows that to a degree at least, they recognize the validity of the poll, rather than dismissing it out-right)

With respect to this latest poll, it is important to note that the poll did not survey actual members of our Party; it only surveyed people who indicated that they would vote for our Party if a provincial election were held today. Most of the research was taken before the May 14th membership cut-off. And Ipsos-Reid admits in its press release that because they did not have access to the Party membership lists, the poll is not intended to be predictive of the actual voting PC membership.

(With a poll based off likely PC voters as opposed to members, we could maybe draw some conclusions. Perhaps they hit a Toronto heavy sample of more moderate PC voters as opposed to pro-Hudak rural/suburban Common Sense Revolutionaries. Perhaps amongst the general population (even a PC-likely population) Elliot has higher name recognition than Hudak due to both her aggressive media campaign and the fact her husband is Jim Flaherty.)

The rest of the statement are the standard shows of strength of the campaign, they have the most endorsements, claim to have signed up the most members, have the best ground game, etc.

Regardless of how accurate this poll turns out to be, for now, at least, it feeds the narrative that Hudak has lost his edge and Elliot is on the offensive.

Randy Hillier and the Ontario PC's: Only white, rural, anglophones hetrosexual males are allowed to be victims!

My entry for the YLC Positive Politics competition: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MevlKbbGzdM
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I've talked previously about the stance of several PC leadership contenders who are seemingly more interested in dividing Ontario than delivering ideas about how to move the economy forward, and Randy Hillier continues the trend:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/News/Hillier+fumes+over+aboriginal+protests/1622577/story.html
The overtness of Hillier's message, coming from a man who has not hesitated to use civil disobedience in the past, and who has been arrested, to criticize First Nations protesters for using similar tactics, is stunning that he is rapidly becoming a power player in a mainstream political party in 2009. Given Hillier's other positions on anyone who isn't a white, rural, heterosexual male anglophone are already well known, it will be very interesting to see what kind of deal the eventual PC winner strikes with Hillier for either his support on the balloting, or to acknowledge his position as a power-broker within the party.

Some other Hillier hits, soon to possibly become Ontario PC policy?

http://www.nationalpost.com/related/topics/story.html?id=1445862
Working towards eliminating French in Ontario.

http://www.nationalpost.com/related/topics/story.html?id=1570343
Legalizing discrimination.

http://www.nationalpost.com/related/topics/story.html?id=1597864
Infringing on the personal rights of consenting adults.

Amongst others. Randy Hillier and the Ontario PC's are in a race to see which candidate can promise the most regressive and divisive policy.

Ontario PC's empty rhetoric on the HST

My entry for the YLC Positive Politics challenge: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MevlKbbGzdM&feature=channel_page
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With the debates in the PC leadership race starting, the policies of each contender are starting to come out, as is the hollowness of the PC's rallying against the Harmonized Sales Tax. http://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/article/638577

The simple fact is the PC's are being hypocritical in attacking the HST. The federal Conservatives supported the measure, and the provincial PC's as well as each of the leadership contenders, supported a HST right up until budget day. I think the pure emptiness and hypocrisy of the PC leadership contenders stance on the issue can be highlighted with some quotes:

While Klees and his three rivals vying for ousted leader John Tory's job said they would fight the tax, none vowed last night at the party's first leadership debate to scrap it...what might happen to the tax if Progressive Conservatives are elected in the 2011 provincial election is "pure speculation" now, said candidate Christine Elliott, MPP for Whitby-Ajax...Klees said it would be "futile" to figure out his proposed PST cut.

The Ontario PC's have no economic plan for this province, and would rather divide Ontario with controversial ideas on Human Rights Tribunals and legalized discrimination than deal with the real issues at hand.

________________________________________________________________
Also check out my spoof of the Tory attack ads: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNZ0aIeBczI&feature=related

The fall of Tim Hudak?

My entry for the YLC Positive Politics Challenge: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MevlKbbGzdM
___________________________________________________________________

New developments in the PC leadership race:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/636650
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090520.wonttory20art2212/BNStory/politics/home
http://www.intelligencer.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1571026
http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2009/05/15/9464831-sun.html
http://www.stephentaylor.ca/2009/05/ontario-pc-membership-numbers/

The Cliff Notes version, for those too lazy to read all those:

-Hudak, despite having the most establishment support, as well as presumably the most support amongst pre-existing members, has not signed up nearly as many new members as people have expected.
-Christine Elliott has outfundraised Hudak 10-1, and has been successful in signing up new members.
-Frank Klees has signed up many new members (perhaps the most of any candidate) and looks like he will perform far better than many expected. Apparently has been making good in-roads in ethnic communities, a group which Hudak needed to go after, particularly considering his endorsement by Jason Kenney.
-Randy Hillier has a very hard-core group of support, and thus has not done terribly in fundraising, but his membership sales lag far behind, really only making progress in rural Eastern Ontario, which is his home-base anyway.
-The messages coming out of the Elliott and Klees campaigns are that Hudak has lost his front runner status, and the membership and fundraising numbers would seem to suggest Hudak has less of a lock on the race than previously indicated.
-Klees' performance in signing up new members has been the surprise of the campaign, and given rumours that he would back Elliott over Hudak, could be a game-changer when it comes time to cast ballots.
-Strong regionalization in membership sales: Hudak is strongest in Southeastern Ontario, Elliott and Klees in the GTA, and the Hillier in Eastern Ontario.
-Hudak's percieved lack of policy is starting to hurt him.

Also, check out my new Youtube attack ad spoof video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNZ0aIeBczI&feature=channel

Way to do outreach, Ontario PC's

My entry for the Positive Politics Challenge: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MevlKbbGzdM
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Considering the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, as a job, has a decent chance of being Premier, and the party has been down in the polls and is looking to re-energize itself, you'd figure the party would be tripping over itself to engage the grassroots, and have a high profile leadership race with an open exchange of ideas to generate interest in the party.

Well, I guess not.

http://www.bloggingtories.ca/forums/viewtopic.php?t=7601

That's right folks, for the sheer privilege of watching Randy Hillier and Frank Klees duke it out about who hates abortion and gays more, you are not only not guaranteed a spot, but you have to cough up $10.

We've already seen with such policies being thrown around as attacking Ontarians human rights and legalizing discrimination and dividing Ontario at a time in which we need togetherness, but now, the PC's are openly and proudly showing a closed door to the citizens of Ontario. Elitism and antagonism are the orders of the day from the Ontario PC's right now.