More shots fired in Ontario PC civil war as Education Critic Lisa MacLeod savages Transportation Critic Frank Klees on Twitter

As the Ontario PC civil war over Tim Hudak's continued leadership rages on, here is what PC Education Critic (and many say potential future leadership candidate Lisa MacLeod) had to say to her fellow PC frontbencher and Transportation Critic Frank Klees.

Next time the Hudak PC's ask to be taken seriously on the transit file, remember that this is the opinion his Transportation critic is held in by one of his highest profile MPPs.

Tim Hudak vs. Frank Klees on green energy

With the Hudak attack on Ontario's economy and jobs continuing today, one of Hudak's most senior MPP's demonstrated how little faith he really has in Hudak's wreckless rookie scheming.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/990868--tory-mpp-stands-to-cash-in-on-green-energy-deal-his-party-wants-to-axe?bn=1

Frank Klees, who finished in a close 2nd to Hudak in the PC leadership race sits on the board of an energy company that stands to make a tidy profit thanks to Ontario government investment in green energy.

A veteran MPP in [the PC] caucus stands to cash in on a green energy plan that his boss, Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak, wants to scrap or pare back.

Klees sits on the board of Tribute Resources and holds stock options in the company based on information supplied in the MPP’s 2010 public disclosure statements.

“Klees is thumbing his nose at his rookie leader in support of the McGuinty Liberal plan for Ontario to replace dirty coal with clean energy and make the province a world leader in clean energy jobs and innovation,” the Liberal release states.

Frank Klees seems to understand that Ontario government policy has created an environment in which private companies can prosper, profit, and help create jobs and grow the economy. Tim Hudak should look to his example before he continues his attack on growing Ontario's industrial economy and creating new jobs for Ontario families.

It's Hudak

No word on if riding by riding results are forthcoming, but here was the final result:


Tim Hudak-5,606-54.25%
Frank Klees-4,644-44.94%

My prediction was:

Tim Hudak - 5434 - 52.6%
Frank Klees - 4896 - 47.4%

I'm too lazy to do the math exactly unlike previous times, the vote basically split, with Hudak getting a slightly larger piece of the pie, and thus confirming what Perez Hudak reported earlier.

2nd PC ballot results

My prediction:

Tim Hudak 4226-40.8%
Frank Klees 3294-31.8%
Christine Elliott 2829-27.3%

The actual results:
Hudak 4128 -39.9%
Klees 3299-31.8%
Elliott 2903-28.0%

So I was pretty accurate, it looks like the 70-20-10 prediction for Hillier's vote might have been closer to 75-25-basically ziltch. The projected 9% gap between Hudak and Klees is 8.1%, but Klees would still need a very very big swing towards him from Elliot. A 60-40 split for Klees would still at this point end in a Hudak victory.

Tim Hudak - 5289 - 51.2%
Frank Klees- 5041 - 48.8%

So while Klees did marginally better than I thought he would on the second ballot, pretty much anything under 65% of Elliott's vote would give Hudak the victory.

This is what 65% of Elliott's vote to Klees would look like:
Frank Klees- 5168- 50.2%
Tim Hudak- 5144- 49.8%

As to what I actually think will happen, I'll go out on a limb and say Klees gets 55% of Elliott's vote.

Tim Hudak - 5434 - 52.6%
Frank Klees - 4896 - 47.4%

So I predict Tim Hudak will be the next Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario leader.

I forgot to add a map of the 2nd ballot winners, so here we go. Only minor changes. All 3 of Hillier's wins go to Hudak, Klees breaks the tie in Davenport, Elliot takes Etobickoe Centre from Klees, Hudak picks up Windsor West and Northumberland-Quinte West from Elliott, Lambton -Kent - Middlesex from Klees.

PC predictions, looks like Hudak has it

Elliott is done like dishwater. She had to finish ahead of Klees to have a hope of leap-frogging Hudak, and now the only way she could prevent being bumped off the next ballot would be to get the bulk of Randy Hillier's second place votes, which given that they are at opposite ends of the PC spectrum, and Hillier's vocal endorsement of Hudak, is simply not going to happen.

Let's say that Hillier's support breaks down into something like 70-20-10 for Hudak/Klees/Elliott, that leaves a second ballot looking something like this:

Tim Hudak 4226-40.8%
Frank Klees 3294-31.8%
Christine Elliott 2829-27.3%

This now puts Elliott's near 3000 votes in play. Perez Hudak is reporting that Elliott sources are saying that their own supporters lean Hudak, which would give Hudak the victory no question. However, given the mutual antipathy between the Elliott and Hudak campaigns, particularly over the the last couple of weeks, I can see this being spin. Let's assume the whole Klees/Elliott axis (interesting how it ended up Klees/Elliott, and not the predicted Elliott/Klees) is somewhat existent, and lets split her vote 60-40 to Klees.


Tim Hudak- 5360 -51.7%
Frank Klees- 4990-48.2%

As we can see, a very close race, and Elliott's support will be crucial. If Klees wants to win, he will need the Elliott vote split to be more like 70-30, which would give us this:

Frank Klees- 5274-50.9%
Tim Hudak- 5075-49%

Klees getting 70% of the Elliott vote might be wishful thinking, and as the number show, he would still barely squeak out a victory. What this means is that the people calling Randy Hillier the "kingmaker" would seem to be correct if these predictions come true, as Hillier's support going overwhelmingly to Hudak would give Hudak the space he needs to survive all but a tsunami of Elliott support going to Klees.

Oh, and just for the sake of having my prediction in if what Perez Hudak is reporting is correct, here are the last ballot results if Elliott support breaks in the direction of Hudak to the tune of say, 55-45.

Tim Hudak-5782 -55.8%
Frank Klees-4567 - 44.2%

Let's see how things work out.

Tory first ballot results in

Hudak: 3511 Klees: 3093 Elliott: 2728 Hillier: 1013

Riding by riding winners here: http://www.unitedandstrong.ca/2009/06/27/first-ballot-results/

Suprisingly strong showing by Klees. Hillier only wins 3 ridings, and has endorsed Hudak. Looks like the prediction of the Hudak/Hillier axis vs. the Klees/Elliott axis is coming true.

Hudak Bingo!

Full version: http://i39.tinypic.com/2exohg6.png

Brought to you by the great people of either the Elliot or Klees campaigns (I think it might have been the Klees campaign though), this was being handed out outside the Ottawa leadership debate tonight. I was unable to actually watch the debate myself, so can any intrepid PC readers tell me if it actually hit bingo, and if so, if people actually cried out "Hudak Bingo!"?

Ontario PC's empty rhetoric on the HST

My entry for the YLC Positive Politics challenge: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MevlKbbGzdM&feature=channel_page
________________________________________

With the debates in the PC leadership race starting, the policies of each contender are starting to come out, as is the hollowness of the PC's rallying against the Harmonized Sales Tax. http://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/article/638577

The simple fact is the PC's are being hypocritical in attacking the HST. The federal Conservatives supported the measure, and the provincial PC's as well as each of the leadership contenders, supported a HST right up until budget day. I think the pure emptiness and hypocrisy of the PC leadership contenders stance on the issue can be highlighted with some quotes:

While Klees and his three rivals vying for ousted leader John Tory's job said they would fight the tax, none vowed last night at the party's first leadership debate to scrap it...what might happen to the tax if Progressive Conservatives are elected in the 2011 provincial election is "pure speculation" now, said candidate Christine Elliott, MPP for Whitby-Ajax...Klees said it would be "futile" to figure out his proposed PST cut.

The Ontario PC's have no economic plan for this province, and would rather divide Ontario with controversial ideas on Human Rights Tribunals and legalized discrimination than deal with the real issues at hand.

________________________________________________________________
Also check out my spoof of the Tory attack ads: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNZ0aIeBczI&feature=related

The fall of Tim Hudak?

My entry for the YLC Positive Politics Challenge: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MevlKbbGzdM
___________________________________________________________________

New developments in the PC leadership race:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/636650
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090520.wonttory20art2212/BNStory/politics/home
http://www.intelligencer.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1571026
http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2009/05/15/9464831-sun.html
http://www.stephentaylor.ca/2009/05/ontario-pc-membership-numbers/

The Cliff Notes version, for those too lazy to read all those:

-Hudak, despite having the most establishment support, as well as presumably the most support amongst pre-existing members, has not signed up nearly as many new members as people have expected.
-Christine Elliott has outfundraised Hudak 10-1, and has been successful in signing up new members.
-Frank Klees has signed up many new members (perhaps the most of any candidate) and looks like he will perform far better than many expected. Apparently has been making good in-roads in ethnic communities, a group which Hudak needed to go after, particularly considering his endorsement by Jason Kenney.
-Randy Hillier has a very hard-core group of support, and thus has not done terribly in fundraising, but his membership sales lag far behind, really only making progress in rural Eastern Ontario, which is his home-base anyway.
-The messages coming out of the Elliott and Klees campaigns are that Hudak has lost his front runner status, and the membership and fundraising numbers would seem to suggest Hudak has less of a lock on the race than previously indicated.
-Klees' performance in signing up new members has been the surprise of the campaign, and given rumours that he would back Elliott over Hudak, could be a game-changer when it comes time to cast ballots.
-Strong regionalization in membership sales: Hudak is strongest in Southeastern Ontario, Elliott and Klees in the GTA, and the Hillier in Eastern Ontario.
-Hudak's percieved lack of policy is starting to hurt him.

Also, check out my new Youtube attack ad spoof video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNZ0aIeBczI&feature=channel