Saturday, June 27, 2009

PC predictions, looks like Hudak has it

Elliott is done like dishwater. She had to finish ahead of Klees to have a hope of leap-frogging Hudak, and now the only way she could prevent being bumped off the next ballot would be to get the bulk of Randy Hillier's second place votes, which given that they are at opposite ends of the PC spectrum, and Hillier's vocal endorsement of Hudak, is simply not going to happen.

Let's say that Hillier's support breaks down into something like 70-20-10 for Hudak/Klees/Elliott, that leaves a second ballot looking something like this:

Tim Hudak 4226-40.8%
Frank Klees 3294-31.8%
Christine Elliott 2829-27.3%

This now puts Elliott's near 3000 votes in play. Perez Hudak is reporting that Elliott sources are saying that their own supporters lean Hudak, which would give Hudak the victory no question. However, given the mutual antipathy between the Elliott and Hudak campaigns, particularly over the the last couple of weeks, I can see this being spin. Let's assume the whole Klees/Elliott axis (interesting how it ended up Klees/Elliott, and not the predicted Elliott/Klees) is somewhat existent, and lets split her vote 60-40 to Klees.

Tim Hudak- 5360 -51.7%
Frank Klees- 4990-48.2%

As we can see, a very close race, and Elliott's support will be crucial. If Klees wants to win, he will need the Elliott vote split to be more like 70-30, which would give us this:

Frank Klees- 5274-50.9%
Tim Hudak- 5075-49%

Klees getting 70% of the Elliott vote might be wishful thinking, and as the number show, he would still barely squeak out a victory. What this means is that the people calling Randy Hillier the "kingmaker" would seem to be correct if these predictions come true, as Hillier's support going overwhelmingly to Hudak would give Hudak the space he needs to survive all but a tsunami of Elliott support going to Klees.

Oh, and just for the sake of having my prediction in if what Perez Hudak is reporting is correct, here are the last ballot results if Elliott support breaks in the direction of Hudak to the tune of say, 55-45.

Tim Hudak-5782 -55.8%
Frank Klees-4567 - 44.2%

Let's see how things work out.

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