What's another 20 mil of your tax dollars, anyway?

After years of using your tax dollars for partisan self promotion, the Conservatives want $20 million more of your tax dollars to keep the ball rolling. Every time you see a taxpayer funded ad while watching the playoffs, that's $95,000 of your tax dollars. That same amount could create 32 summer jobs for youth, which would really help the economy.

PS: Here's what it looks like when a government actually cares more about ensuring youth are an active part of the economy.

This hits the nail on the head

Been meaning to toss up a post about the Conservatives preparing to launch a tax payer funded attack ad blitz again Trudeau, but this social media image put out by Trudeau hits the nail on the head way better than I could. Go show Team Liberal.

Winners and losers in the LPC leadership race - besides the obvious winner

Was in Ottawa for the leadership reveal, and I've been meaning to write a blog reflecting on the race. First off, let me thank all the volunteers and party staff who worked during the weekend and throughout the race.

While the obvious winner was Justin Trudeau, and congratulations to his team are due, I thought I'd write about who I think are the more subtle winners and losers from both the weekend and the race as a whole. Presented in no particular order.

WINNERS

-George Takach

Takach wasn't taken the most seriously at the start of the race, but his official entry into the race was professional, he garnered a surprising amount of Young Liberal support which gave him decent online buzz, and he positioned himself well to own the "digitial economy" file - not a bad niche to have for a party looking for ways to be economically innovative. That he dropped out to support Trudeau helps him in this category of course. For an outsider candidate like Takach, the best realistic outcome was to raise his profile and make friends with the new establishment, and it seems like he executed it well. If he wants to run for a nomination in the next election, he'll have a good pick of seats, particularly his home riding of Etobicoke-Lakeshore

-Supporters of supporters

The supporter class wasn't without its share of controversy, and you can argue about the value of it, how to calculate the turnout, etc, but the fact is with the supporter category over 100k Canadians voted in this leadership race. It would have been interesting to see how the supporter class would have worked in a more competitive race with more candidates able to run truly national campaigns, but those who supported the creation of the class and allowing them to vote can be satisfied - for now. The next test is keeping those supporters engaged and getting them involved on the local level.

-Deborah Coyne

If a candidate who got under 1% of the vote can be considered a winner, Deb Coyne can. She never caught fire, but she had a deep policy binder, performed decently in the debates, and was able to defend her ideas
well. She never thought she could win, but for someone who entered the race to advance certain ideas to keep them part of the discussion, she did well. I hope she goes after a federal nomination in the next election.

-Jean Chretien

Hardly needs to be said, but his barn burner of a speech at the leadership reveal demonstrated why he's the most beloved living Liberal leader.

LOSERS

-Supporters of co-operation

I don't support co-operation, and seemingly neither did many Liberals, with Joyce Murray and her co-operation platform finishing a distant second (which was expected) but underperformed some expectations for vote %. I talked to a couple of friends who were supporting Joyce, and who complained that the third-party groups like LeadNow and the various strategic voting schemes who threw lots in with Joyce failed to deliver. I don't think Joyce was the best salesperson for the co-operation pitch compared the Nathan Cullen in the NDP race, who genuinely surprised a lot of people with his likability and charisma. His unexpectedly strong performance gave a shot in the arm to the co-operation idea after post-2011 federal election analysis brought doubt onto the idea of strategic voting schemes, but with NDP leader Mulcair ruling it out and the co-operation candidate in the Liberal race failing to make as big as an impact, hard to say the idea has momentum.

-Martha Hall Findlay

I didn't think her awkward attack on Trudeu during the GTA debate deserved all the fire and brimstone that the media rained down on her, but it did demonstrate her inability to position herself well as an alternative candidate. She tried position herself as the centre-right candidate and rally Western support, but finished behind the left-wing Murray in every Prarie province, and I don't think she got more than 20% in any riding except for Willowdale, where she still finished a distant second to Trudeau. That she started making noises about running again while she still had 2006 debt also hurt her image. She wants to run again and I think she's a good voice to have in the party, but I don't think she gained anything in particular from getting 5.5% in this race.

-David Bertschi 

Bertschi may have been looking to raise his profile, but unlike the other outsider candidates, failed to do so in any positive way. His campaign was dogged by staff turnover, negative news stories about loaning himself money and other issues. Unlike some of the other outsider candidates, he was never able to even establish a niche for himself on policy issues (like Takach on digital issues, McCrimmon on veterans affairs, Coyne having a generally deep policy background, etc) to develop any sort of constituency. He dropped out without endorsing anyone, which won't earn him any other new friends if he takes another crack at Ottawa-Orleans.

-Michael Ignatieff

Considering the whole point of the exercise was in theory to replace Ignatieff as permanent leader, it left a bad taste in a few people's mouths that Ignatieff didn't make an appearance at the leadership reveal, if only to say a few words.

Follow me on Twitter for coverage of the Liberal leadership showcase tomorrow

I'll be livetweeting the showcase (I nearly typed convention out of a force of habit left over from OLP leadership) so follow me on Twitter at @WilliamNorman.

Lowering the age of voter registration to 16: An idea worth looking at

I've been reading up lately on the potential benefits to lowering the age of voter registration. The BC NDP has tabled some legislation to lower the age of voter registration to 16, based on a recommendation from the Chief Electoral Officer of BC in 2011:


The lowest voter registration rates are for young voters 18-24 years of age. There is a 
positive correlation between voting and being registered as a voter before General Voting 
Day. The most effective means of registering youth may be to approach them before they 
graduate from high school. Currently, voter registration is restricted to those at least 18 
years of age, an age when many youth have left high school. 

Australia has addressed this issue by allowing provisional voter registration of 17 year 
olds. Several American states have provisional registration for 16 or 17 year olds, or 
have introduced Bills or declared their intention to do so in this regard.

Legislators may wish to consider allowing the provisional registration of individuals 
when they are 16 years of age. The voting age could remain at 18, with provisional 
registration becoming an active registration on an individual’s 18th birthday. Permitting 
early registration at the age of 16 would permit Elections BC to work with schools and 
the driver licensing program to ensure maximum exposure to the registration process for 
young voters. Many high school teachers have expressed support for this concept as it 
would allow meaningful action by their students in the context of civics education. 
Improving the accessibility of registration opportunities for youth may have a longer-term 
effect on voter engagement and turnout.


Here is another good piece on the possible benefits of lowering the age of voter registration and the experiences of several US states.

Lowering the actual age of voting is oft debated, but I'm not convinced that it would have an overall positive impact on youth voter turnout percentage. Allowing (or perhaps even making it a part of high school civics class) is a solid, workable way to address issues of youth voter turnout and youth engagement, and I think it's worth examining by governments.

Hey you, register to vote for the LPC leadership!

The deadline to register for the LPC leadership vote is this Thursday! Register now, it takes less than 2 minutes to make sure your voice is heard as part of the most open leadership race in Canadian history!

Just click this link for registration help!

Labrador insta-analysis

I present to you some thoughts on the upcoming Labrador by-election. By the way, here is a link to donate to the Labrador FLA: https://action.liberal.ca/en/donate/Riding/10004

With the resignation of Conservative Minister Peter Penashue after he admitted his campaign took illegal donations, Labrador faces a fascinating by-election. Penashue is taking the rare step of running in the by-election to attempt to re-gain a mandate, something that by my count has only happened a few times in Canadian history. (Sheila Copps in 1996 and  Roch La Salle in 1981 are the only examples that I can name off the top of my head.)

Penashue won an extremely narrow victory in 2011, defeating incumbant Liberal MP Todd Russell by only 79 votes, or less than 1 vote per poll. Penashue's victory in 2011 can be attributed to a few factors. As former Grand Chief of the Innu Nation, he was able to increase Innu turnout in the election, a demographic that for a variety of reasons has historically not had higher turnout. The return of the Newfoundland and Labrador PC's to the federal Tory fold has to be taken into consideration, as many PC voters and organizers followed Danny Williams' ABC campaign in 2008, resulting in Labrador having less than 40% turnout and Russell romping to victory with 70% of the vote with the Conservative candidate, a Parliament Hill staffer originally from St. John's finishing in 3rd with less than 10% of the vote. The NDP vote rising in 2011 also cost Russell. Discounting the 2008 result, comparing the 2006 and 2011 results shows a stable Tory vote - Penashue's victory in 2011 with 4,256 votes was actually less than the 2006 2nd place Tory finish of 4,528 votes. Russell's vote from 2006/2011 went from 5,768 to 4,177 (it should be noted that his rise in popular vote % from 2006 to 2008 from 51% to 70% was based on the Tory vote collapsing, his raw vote in 2008 was actually slightly lower than his 2006 score) while the NDP vote from 2008 to 2011 went up by almost 1000 votes. With the provincial NDP polling well right now, they will be a factor in the race.

By-elections historically have low turnout, but it should be noted that the 2005 Labrador by-election in which Russell was elected had a 53% turnout, higher than the turnout in the general elections of 2011, 2008, 2004 and 2000. However, this by-election was held during the height of the Martin minority government when one seat could have tipped the balance of power in the House, so with this by-election being held two years into a majority mandate I'd be very surprised to see the voters of the riding hold the same level of urgency. Not sure exactly who would benefit the most from low voter turnout, particularly in a riding with a large aboriginal population.

With clouds of election donation and spending over his head, Penashue hardly goes into the by-election with momentum on his side. Given the strained relations between the federal government and First Nations groups, it might be difficult for Penashue to motivate Innu turnout like he did in 2011. Aboriginals make up just under 40% of the population of the riding. The big wild card will be the Muskrat Falls project, which Penashue will almost certainly point to as an example of his being able to bring home the bacon. Penashue has done almost nothing else notable as Intergovernmental Affairs Minister.

Former MP Todd Russell (who is aboriginal himself) would be the most likely candidate for the Liberals, he's said he's going to take a few days to make a decision. Russell was generally well liked from what I understand (his losing 38.1% of the vote would be enough to get you elected in a lot of other ridings) and was close with Justin Trudeau when they served together as MP's, so the nomination would probably be his for the taking. If Russell takes a pass, the other name I've seen tossed about on Twitter is Liberal MHA and former leader Yvonne Jones, who represents the Southeastern portion of Labrador. Jones has a strong local base in her Liberal stronghold riding, never winning less than 56% of the vote, and that was as an independent candidate. Even in the 2007 Danny Williams landslide, Jones won 73% of the vote, and in the last election won 71%.

I briefly mentioned the NDP, who would hope to play spoiler and potentially come up the middle. The NDP has never won the seat federally, although they have posted respectable results historically, and have twice won the Labrador West seat provincially (they also won the poll covering most of western Labrador in the 2011 federal election). New polls show the NDP leading the PC's in popular support province wide, although support for the NDP outside Western Labrador tends to be concentracted in the St. John's and Avalon area. The newest poll shows them nearly 50% of the vote in this area, compared to 32% in the rest of the province. The size and remoteness of Labrador is problem in terms of polling, however, as Labrador has only 6% of the population of the province, and thus only 6% of the survey results were from the province. I won't claim enough about Newfoundland politics to know who the NDP candidate might be, with 2011 and 2006 candidate Jake Larkin being the most obvious choice. Former Labrador West NDP MHA Randy Collins spent 21 months in jail for fraud, so I'm willing to cross him off the list, as well as the previous NDP MHA Peter Fenwick, who ran for the Canadian Alliance in 2000. 2011 Labrador West provincial candidate Tom Harris perhaps?

Timing will also be an issue. Assuming Denis Coderre resigns as MP for Bourassa to focus on a bid for Montreal mayor, Harper would probably call both by-elections at the same time. It makes sense tactically for the Conservatives to do so anyway, they are an afterthought in Bourassa, so they could throw everything at Labrador (assuming they want to), while the Liberals and NDP would have to focus on both, with the Liberals in particular wanting to hold on to Bourassa from the NDP or Bloc (whose leader, Daniel Paille is seatless), while the NDP would dearly like to mount serious offensive campaigns in both ridings.

On the whole, I think the Liberals have the best shot of winning the riding back, assuming they get an A list candidate in either Russell or Jones although realistically any of the 3 parties has a shot. What kind of support Penashue gets from party central will be an interesting question, the Conservatives obviously would prefer to keep the seat, but given the circumstances of Penashue's resignation and new campaign, I can't imagine they want to get many media photos of Penashue with visiting Ministers.