Saturday, June 27, 2009

PC race in map form

Here is the whole of the province. We don't have the percentages, so it's not as useful as it could be, but we can still do some good analysis. Hudak is dark blue, Klees is light blue, Elliott is green, Hillier is red. As we can see, a lot of dark blue, showing Hudak was extremely solid in the rural areas of the province. Let's do a region by region breakdown:

Hudak dominated the North, winning all but a handful of ridings. Klees takes Nickel Belt, Sudbury, and Thunder Bay—Atikokan, while Elliot takes the urban riding of Sault Ste. Marie. The North isn't the largest area, but Elliot being held to only a single urban seat didn't bode well for her campaign.

Randy Hillier, the lion of the East, ended up being kind of a bust. He only got 10% of the vote province-wide, and even in his heartland of Eastern Ontario, only carried three ridings, including his home riding. Klees was shut out of the region plurality wise, something that looks like it might hurt him on the last ballot. Hudak managed to win across divides in the region, winning the urban seat of Ottawa Centre, and also carrying several rural and suburban seats in Ottawa. Elliot picked up 3, including the traditional Red Tory riding of Kingston.

Central Ontario is generally one of the more conservative parts of the province, and all 3 main candidates held their own here. Both Klees and Elliot have their home bases on the outskirts of the GTA near this region, which would help them in gaining support. Hudak, like he did in every predominately non-urban region, also did well.

In looking at a map of the GTA results, I'm going to break it down into two parts, the suburbs, and the city. This map explains why Frank Klees finished ahead of Christine Elliott. In particular, the wave of green Elliott support, coming in from both her power base of Whitby-Oshawa and the outer suburbs of the GTA east, and her support coming in from the more rural areas which turn into Central Ontario, are nearly totally and completely blocked by the light blue wall of suburban ridings which Klees dominated in, which also traps her downtown Toronto support. Klees nearly swept the GTA suburbs minus Elliott's homeland, winning all but one riding in his own base of the GTA North (Hudak picked up Vaughan) and did very well in the GTA West suburbs, dominating Mississauga/Brampton/Etobickoe, as well as the pre-amalgamation parts of Toronto, including Willowdale, Scarborough, etc. Elliott was completely shut out the the GTA North and the GTA West, and while the GTA was by far the weakest region for Hudak, he managed to pick off a handful of suburban seats that probably would have gone Klees, and a couple of urban Toronto seats that probably would have gone Elliot. The failure of either Klees or Elliott, however, to totally dominate the GTA probably doomed their campaign (and with news that Elliott has endorsed Klees, perhaps the whole Klees/Elliott GTA based axis) to second place.

If the map of the GTA results showed why Elliott lost, this map shows why (baring a huge vote shift to Klees by Elliott) Hudak won. Hudak destroyed both Klees and Elliott in Souther Ontario, and while it was expected that this would be his strongest region, for him to pretty much carry every riding from Niagara Falls to Kitchener, and then all but a few ridings from Guelph to Windsor, shows that Hudak was able to exploit his areas of strength the most, unlike Elliott and Klees, who split the GTA. In an area that has plenty of all three types, Hudak showed he could across the board, ranging from rural seats like Haldimand-Norfolk, to the sweep of all 3 urban London seats.

So in short:

-Hudak was the only candidate to win across all regions of the province.

-Elliott was unable to penetrate the GTA suburbs effectively.

-Klees' dominance of the suburbs ensured a leap-frogging of Elliott, but his relatively inability to win in rural areas, particulary getting shut out in Eastern Ontario, are likely to doom him to second.

-Hudak dominated his home region to a degree that Hillier, Elliott, ahd Klees did not.


The Pundits' Guide said...

Nice job. What program did you use?

The Liberal Scarf said...

Literally the most basic program I had, MS Paint. I just filled in the ridings based on a blank riding map I stole from Wikipedia.