Wednesday, May 20, 2009

The fall of Tim Hudak?

My entry for the YLC Positive Politics Challenge:

New developments in the PC leadership race:

The Cliff Notes version, for those too lazy to read all those:

-Hudak, despite having the most establishment support, as well as presumably the most support amongst pre-existing members, has not signed up nearly as many new members as people have expected.
-Christine Elliott has outfundraised Hudak 10-1, and has been successful in signing up new members.
-Frank Klees has signed up many new members (perhaps the most of any candidate) and looks like he will perform far better than many expected. Apparently has been making good in-roads in ethnic communities, a group which Hudak needed to go after, particularly considering his endorsement by Jason Kenney.
-Randy Hillier has a very hard-core group of support, and thus has not done terribly in fundraising, but his membership sales lag far behind, really only making progress in rural Eastern Ontario, which is his home-base anyway.
-The messages coming out of the Elliott and Klees campaigns are that Hudak has lost his front runner status, and the membership and fundraising numbers would seem to suggest Hudak has less of a lock on the race than previously indicated.
-Klees' performance in signing up new members has been the surprise of the campaign, and given rumours that he would back Elliott over Hudak, could be a game-changer when it comes time to cast ballots.
-Strong regionalization in membership sales: Hudak is strongest in Southeastern Ontario, Elliott and Klees in the GTA, and the Hillier in Eastern Ontario.
-Hudak's percieved lack of policy is starting to hurt him.

Also, check out my new Youtube attack ad spoof video:

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Frank Klees also has a large and active social conservative base who would be motivated to sign up new members. This cannot be discounted and where their votes will swing is also important.