Mapping out past Quebec election results - vote splits and vote efficiency make the different in Quebec provincial elections

In preparation for the Quebec provincial election on Monday, I mapped out some past Quebec election results, comparing the vote and seat share received by each party. Click the graph to embiggen, the vote share is on the left, seat share on the right.

In Quebec elections, the Parti Quebecois is often said to have a built in advantage, in that they have a more "efficient" vote. The Liberals win super-majorities in Montreal, while the PQ is able to squeak out more victories by a smaller margin in the regions by winning francophone voters, meaning that in theory, the PLQ need a significant vote share advantage, as the PLQ have more wasted votes in ultra safe seats in Montreal.

You can see that is is what played out in the 1994 and 1998 elections. The vote share for the PQ and PLQ was within 1-2 percentage points of each other, but the PQ won solid majorities. Indeed, the PLQ actually won the popular vote in the 1998 election. However, in 2012, the PQ and PLQ again had a tight race for the popular vote, finishing a single point apart, but the PQ barely squeezed ahead of the PLQ in the seat count.

The rise of other parties in Quebec is one factor in this - in 2003, the PLQ popular vote barely moved from 1998, but the ADQ jumping from 12% to 18%, particularly rising in the regions and amongst francophone voters, sapped a lot of support directly from the PQ, and allowed the PLQ to win a solid majority. The ADQ, however did not have a particularly efficient vote prior to its 2007 breakthrough, as 18% of the vote was only able to deliver 4 seats.

2007 was one of the most unpredictable elections in Quebec up until that point, with the ADQ surging and almost doubling its popular vote from the last election, stealing from both the PQ and PLQ. This election, oddly, the showed the flip side of having an "efficient" vote - when another party is surging and taking votes from you, your 5% victories in a lot of ridings are going to be in danger. Large parts of the PQ and PLQ voter base abandoned the parties, and because the PQ base was spread more evenly, it was pushed into third place by the ADQ. Looking at the actual seat results from 2007, it can be argued that the PLQ actually had the most "efficient" vote, as while it suffered significant damage in the regions, it was able to retain enough bedrock support in it's core federalist areas (Montreal, the Eastern Townships, the Outaouais) to win the most seats.

After an ADQ collapse returned Quebec election results "normal" in 2008, the 2012 election and the rise of the CAQ and to a lesser extend Quebec solidaire marked another wide open election, with only 5% separating first from third in the popular vote. The CAQ took enough francophone vote from both the Liberals and the PQ to be competitive, but not enough to reach the height of the ADQ.

30% seems to be a flipping point for parties in Quebec, particularly for the non Liberal parties. Only 4% separated the ADQ in 2007 from the CAQ in 2012, but the difference between 31% and 27% in vote share was 32% and 15% of the seat share. The PQ has a pretty big range for seat share depending on how the votes of the ADQ/CAQ/QS go, demonstrated by the PQ winning more seats and a narrow majority in 2012 with only 32% of the vote, when 33% of the vote delivered them opposition and fewer seats.

Right now ThreeHundredEight has the PQ pegged at 28%, the same as in 2007 election that placed them in 3rd, but in total seat count he has them significantly higher than in 2007.

Where the CAQ ends up is the big wildcard, the last couple of polls have shown them recovering support lost to the PLQ in the first part of the campaign, but still below where they ended up in 2012. If the CAQ surges over the last weekend, what result could that have?

The other wildcard is Quebec solidaire. While at absolutely maximum they can win 4-5 seats (they will certainly hold onto the two they have, and a third seat isn't out of the question) if they are polling in the double digits, that is a lot of vote they could take from the PQ. QS tends to underperform compared to the polls, however, so solidaire being at 8% vs 12% could be the difference (particularly for the PQ) in a lot of seats.

43

27

15

6

2

What happened to Tom "Captain Canada" Mulcair now that the writ has dropped in Quebec?

Looks like Captain Canada is staying "neutral" in the face of a PQ government which would almost certainly call a referendum and which of course, will be running on the regressive so-called "Charter of Values" that would ban observant Jews, Sikhs, Muslims, and Christians from being a part of the civil service.

If Mulcair is "neutral" against this, what will he take a stand for?

Former Conservative candidate and "shadow MP" on your tax dollars arrested in Quebec corruption probe

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Saulie+Zajdel+arrest+UPAC+surprise+Conservatives/8536640/story.html


"He was known as the “shadow MP” of the federal Mont-Royal riding, hovering and thinking about making another run at the job after losing in 2011….Saulie Zajdel’s stunning arrest Monday on five charges including breach of trust, corruption and fraud sent a shock wave through the ranks of the Conservative Party from the top down…


Zajdel, who bagged a controversial adviser’s job in the office of Heritage Minister James Moore after his defeat in Mont-Royal…was hired by Moore, a close associate, to work as a “liaison” between the government and Montreal’s cultural communities from October 2011 until March 2012.

His role with the Conservatives was vague, and for months he refused to explain his duties or his salary…. Cotler expressed his annoyance, suggesting Zajdel was being paid by Ottawa to prepare his political rematch, calling him Mont-Royal’s “shadow MP.”…the Conservatives indulged in a dirty tricks campaign, with workers phoning people in Mont-Royal strongly suggesting Cotler was going to retire. The speaker of the Commons later ruled the stunt as “trickery.”…

Zajdel was part of Harper’s entourage on a visit to Montreal that included a stop in a pub. It was there he revealed to a Canadian Press reporter [Zajdel] was dissatisfied with his salary in Moore’s office.

“Oh, (it’s) not as much as I want it to be,” Zajdel quipped. Asked how much he’d like to earn, he said, “Something in the six digits and it’s not that.”

There was a report later in Le Devoir that Zajdel’s salary was $60,000 a year."

  So, get rejected by the voters, have the party run a "trickery" campaign against your opponent, get paid with your tax dollars to raise your political profile in the riding, complain about making a more than middle-class salary, get arrested?   Harper is a Beatles fan, so I'm sure he'll appreciate that stories like this are just another day in the life of his government.  

  Here's Harper talking about how great a guy the now arrested Zajdel is.

The family tree of Quebec political parties

Taking a break from talking about Tracey Weiler and Tim Hudak putting full day kindergarten at risk for Kitchener-Waterloo families by talking about some other kind of families: the family trees of Quebec political parties.

Those who know me know I'm a big Quebecophile, so I thought I would make a rough chart showing the evolution and relationship of the different major political parties in Quebec right now. Take a look at see how the Parti Liberal, Parti Quebecois, CAQ, Quebec solidare, and Parti Vert have come into being, and how many of them have family roots with each other.

A solid line indicates a direct merger, a dotted line represents that a part was a breakaway or formed by dissidents of another party. I've used logos where appropriate, and click to enlarge the images. Enjoy!

Nomination news from PEI and Quebec

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/prince-edward-island/story/2010/10/22/pei-charlottetown-liberal-casey-584.html

The federal Liberal nomination in Charlottetown has a declared contender, with lawyer Sean Casey jumping in. Casey has deep roots in the party and in Charlottetown, serving as past president of the Liberal Party of Prince Edward Island and the Greater Charlottetown Area Chamber of Commerce.


http://thechronicleherald.ca/NovaScotia/1208969.html

Staying out east, former PC MLA and cabinet minister David Morse says he will run for the Conservative nomination in Kings-Hants. Morse had been the MLA for Kings South, but was defeated in the NDP wave which swept Nova Scotia in 2009. Interestingly, Morse confirmed what many have accused the Tories of, favouring government held ridings as part of government spending:

"It is increasingly obvious that Kings-Hants has paid a price as we have been left out of discretionary federal projects," Morse said in the release."

Interesting to see how those comments go over.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201010/27/01-4336693-le-bloc-confirmera-le-recrutement-dun-ancien-du-npd.php

And a bit of a grab for the BQ in Montreal, with former NDP candidate in Hochelaga Jean-Claude Rocheleau running for the BQ in the east-end riding of La Pointe-de-l'Île, being vacated by Francine Lalonde. The riding is a BQ stronghold, with Lalonde generally winning by 40-50% of the vote over her nearest competition.

Mark Bruneau new Liberal candidate in Jeanne-Le Ber

Mark Bruneau, who had previously run for the Liberal nomination in the riding in 2008, won a contested nomination for the nod this Sunday. Bruneau is a businessman and entrepreneur and will look to win back the riding for the Grits, which has seen some very close contests between the Bloc and Liberals over recent elections, being decided by 2.7% in 2008, making it one of the top targets for the Liberals in Quebec.

Nomination news from BC and Quebec

Haven't had a blog post on nominations in a bit, but here we go.

http://www.nsnews.com/news/Deceit+compounds+broken+promise/3512705/story.html

District of North Vancouver councillor Roger Bassam says he has been approached by the federal Liberals as a potential candidate in North Vancouver, and is considering taking a run.


"Bassam who worked as an assistant for former Liberal MP Don Bell is not discounting the possibility.

"As for your question, yes I have been approached by many local Liberals offering support if I run. I am exploring that option with the federal reps as we speak and should come to a decision soon. I will let you know how that conversation goes," Bassam said."

At last count, 2008 Green Party candidate Jim Stephenson, and former Liberal MP Don Bell were both considering going after the nomination.

Sticking with the Liberals but switching provinces, Jeanne-Le Ber will have a contested nomination meeting on October 3. The candidates are Mark Bruneau, a businessman who narrowly lost the 2008 nomination, Jean-Pierre Belanger, Kimberley Darlington, an events producer, and Pascal Zamprelli, media relations officer for McGill University. The riding has been a close Liberal-BQ fight for several elections, and if the Liberals want to pick up seats in Quebec, this should be a top target.

Also, in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, Jacques Cadieux who has previously ran for the ADQ was also nominated back in August.

Sticking with Quebec, but switching parties, this article: http://www.thesuburbannews.ca/content/en/5323 discusses some potential candidates for the Conservatives around Montreal.

2008 candidate in Laval – Les Îles, Agop Everekian, a chief of staff to Jason Kenney seems to be taking a run in Pierrefonds-Dollard this time around, and Mary Deros, a Montreal city councillor who lost the federal Liberal nomination for Papineau to Justin Trudeau is rumoured to be considering a run for the Tories this time, and in a move to get a potential star candidate, Montreal Alouettes president Larry Smith is apparently being lobbied to take a run for the Conservatives in his home riding of Vaudreuil-Soulanges.

ADQ disintegration watch

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/beleaguered-adq-chief-wants-out/article1358090/

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5j1YD0FVTSkJdrCpRjyp9GAyrdX2w

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/Tory-Senator-Leo-Housakos-directs-questions-about-ADQ-financing-back-to-party-69709247.html

Interesting to see this getting more and more play in the non-Quebec media, as the ADQ, which once came within a handful of seats of forming government on the backs of the reasonable accomodation discusion within Quebec (which in the face of an economic downturn, seems to have almost totally faded as an issue), seems headed towards footnote in history status. Gilles Taillon stepping down as leader after less than a month on the job has got to be one of, if not the shortest reign by a party leader over a party with parliamentary representation.

By-election analysis

Nomination news has slowed to a crawl with an election now being far on the horizon in seems, but there are the 4 by-elections coming up, so I'm going to break down each parties best and worst case scenario (within reason) for the parties.

Conservatives

The best case scenario for the Conservatives would be winning back the bedrock Tory riding of Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley (which outside of Casey being elected as an independent in 2008 and Casey losing his seat in the 1993 wipeout, hasn't elected a non-Tory since the 50's) by a healthy margin over a the NDP, which looks to capitalize on the popularity of the provincial NDP, which won the popular vote and 3 of the 5 provincial ridings that make up the federal riding, a strong second place finish in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup (actually winning the seat is I think unrealistic), flipping New Westminster – Coquitlam from NDP to Tory, and getting 10% of the vote and getting the deposit back in Hochelaga, which like most East-End Montreal ridings are not fertile ground for the Conservatives. Worst case scenario, the NDP GOTV operation in CCMV turns out to be hugely effective, and the Dippers pull off an upset, the Liberals finish ahead of the Tories in MLKR with the BQ winning easily, the popularity of Donnally and HST anger propels a distant Tory finish in NWC, and Hochelaga delivers a -10% return.

NDP

The NDP go into the by-elections with high hopes, with a best case scenario being an upset in CCMV for Mark Austin, Fin Donnally comfortably holding NWC, a second place finish ahead of the Liberals in Hochelaga (they have been targetting the BQ working class vote heavily), and at least getting on the radar in MLKR, as they only won 5.5% of the vote last time around. Worst case scenario, the Tories survive comfortably with a local candidate in CCMV, putting the damper on hopes of an NDP Atlantic breakthrough, the economy first/tough on crime message of Dilworth flips NWC into the Tory column, attacks on the BQ fall flat in Hochelaga, leaving them stuck in 3rd place, and stay off the radar in MLKR.

Liberals

It's difficult to do a best case and worst case scenario for the Liberals while staying in the bounds of realism for these ridings, as none of them are Liberal friendly (to put it in perspective, in 3 of the 4 ridings last election, the Liberals didn't win a single poll in the riding, with Hochelaga returning the only Liberal polls, and not many). When I did an earlier analysis when the Liberals were doing about 10 points better in the polls than they are now I still didn't have them even coming within sniffing distance of winning, yet something tells me that after the Liberals return empty handed in terms of seat gains for this round we can expect another round of articles predicting Iggy's demise, overlooking the fact that it would be difficult to pick 4 ridings less likely to return Liberal victories outside of the rural Praries. Anyway, best case Liberal scenario, retaining second place in Hochelaga, finishing ahead of the Tories in MLRK, getting back to 10%+ (they finished in 4th with 8.5% last time), in CCMV and raise the vote in NWC to a more historically normal 20% or so. Worst case, they finish a distant third in MLRK, get jumped by the NDP in Hochelaga, finish -10% in both CCMV and NWC.

BQ

The BQ go in defending two seats, both of which are neither on a knife edge, but we can still form a best/worst case scenario. Best case is Daniel Paille continuing Real Menard's dominance of Hochelaga, with the Liberals finishing ahead of the NDP, damaging NDP hopes of prying working class francophone support from them, and comfortably holding MLRK over the Tories. Worst case, the NDP gives them a scare in Hochelaga, and the Tory GOTV operation pulls off an upset in MLRK. Hochelaga will be interesting to watch given an increasingly nasty back and forth between the BQ and NDP, with the NDP launching this attack site: http://www.blocageintermittent.ca/ and putting these posters up:

attacking Paille for his former ties to the Conservative government, which was countered by the BQ attacking NDP MP's for supporting getting rid of the gun registry with this rather brutal poster:

Greens

The Greens really have no stake either way in this round of by-elections, not running a candidate in CCMV last election and gaining between 2-7% in the other 3. If they could break 10% in NWC, which gave them 7% last time around it would be nice for them, but since they really have nowhere to go in the Quebec ones, up or down, and not running a candidate in CCMV makes direct comparisons difficult, this one is sort of a write off, analysis wise.

Liberal nomination news in 3 ridings

Ran down a decent sized nomination update last time around, but here are some remainders:



http://www.yournepean.com/KanataKourier/news/article/16856

Lawyer Scott Simser is the first declared candidate for the Liberal nomination in Carleton-Mississippi Mills.



http://bugleobserver.canadaeast.com/news/article/814395

In another Tory held riding, the Liberals have a new candidate, Chuck Chiasson in Tobique-Mactaquac.



http://www.cnw.ca/fr/releases/archive/October2009/06/c4416.html

Marcel Catellier has officially been named the Liberal candidate in Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Rivière-du-Loup, one of the ridings in which by-elections have been called for.

Post-Quebec nomination news

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/200910/03/01-908198-harper-declenchera-quatre-elections-partielles.php

Following up on the last by-election post, the Liberals might have found a candidate for Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, with Cap-Saint-Ignace mayor and head of the Montmagny MRC Marcel Catelier submitting his name for the nomination.

I had a nice little chat at the congres with 2008 candidate (and frequent reader of this blog) William Hogg, who is taking another crack at Compton-Standstead, and he said that at least a couple of Conservatives are organizing for a nomination run, including 2008 candidate Michel Gagne.

http://www.ledevoir.com/2009/10/05/270208.html

And it now looks like Jeanne Le Ber will see a Liberal nomination battle, with 2008 Outremont candidate Sébastien Dhavernas saying he is leaning towards running after a positive reception at the congres. Dhavernas would of course be facing Nathalie Le Prohon, who was Denis Coderre's first pick for Outremont.

By-election analysis

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/091003/national/fed_byelections

With 4 by-elections now seemingly coming up, now seems as good a time as any to take a look at each riding.

New Westminster – Coquitlam

Located on the edge of greater Vancouver, the riding is a traditionally a swing riding between the NDP and the PC's/Reform/Alliance/Conservatives, (the Liberals haven't won in the area that makes up the riding since the 1968 Trudeau victory) although the Liberals have occasionally made it a 3 way race when the vote has split since then, finishing close thirds in 1993, 1997 and 2004. The Liberal vote collapsed last election, going from 23.5% and 11,931 votes in 2006 to 11.3% and 5,615 votes in 2008. The riding has been often been a person battle between Dawn Black from the NDP and Paul Forseth from the Conservatives, facing each other in 2006, 1997, and 1993. On paper, this is the Liberals best chance of winning one of the 4 by-elections, although that isn't saying much, a more realistic goal would be lifting the Liberal vote from the lows of the 2008 results into the mid-20% range that the party usually turns in when it is perfoming normally. From all I have heard, Fin Donnelly was a good choice for NDP candidate, as the riding is often split between the more NDP friendly New Westminster and the more Tory Coquitlam, and Donnelly was a fairly popular Coquitlam councilor, so in addition to the normal NW NDP vote that helped Dawn Black, he can probably have a personal vote in Coquitlam. The Liberals should, as I said, focus on simply trying to reach say, 25% to show they are back on their feet in the ridings, and should in particular try to work on getting Green voters to go Liberal.

Prediction:
NDP-39%
Conservative-32%
Liberal-23%
Green-6%
(I didn't do it deliberately, but this result would basically mirror the 2006 result)

Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley

The NDP has high hopes for this rural Nova Scotia riding, vacated by former Tory Bill Casey. They are still hoping to ride the wave created by the provincial party's victory in the most recent provincial election, in which the NS NDP won 3 of the 5 provincial ridings in CCMV, and if the combined total of all those ridings were combined, it would produce an NDP victory. I think though, that the Tories should hold this one. Conservative candidate Scott Armstrong was a middle-man between Casey and the federal Conservatives, and is respected by both Casey loyalists and Tory diehards, so he should be able to pull out most of the old Tory vote for himself. The riding has a very long Tory history, with Casey's election as an independent, and the 1993 PC wipeout (in which Casey lost the seat) being the only times the riding has voted anything but Conservative since 1957 (and even prior to that, the seat leaned Conservative, going all the way back to Father of Confederation Charles Tupper). I expect a Tory victory with the NDP a strong second, and the Liberals making up some of the ground they lost in 2008.

Conservative-46%
NDP-34%
Liberal-18%
Green-2%

Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup

Held by the BQ since 1993, the Conservatives had hoped that the Mario Dumont effect would deliver this seat to them as part of the Quebec breakthrough that would yield a Tory majority, which ended up falling flat (although the riding was ultimately one of the few in Quebec in which the Conservatives did better in 2008 than in 2006). Prior to 1993, the seat had flipped a couple times between the Liberals and the PC's (and featured the Rhino Party finishing in third ahead of the NDP in 1984). The Tories had hoped to lure Dumont into federal politics and take a run at this seat, but Dumont declined, and the 15% showing of the ADQ in the Riviere-du-Loup by-election that followed Dumont stepping down can't bode well for the Conservatives (in fairness, many Quebec Conservatives were supporting the Quebec Liberal Party candidate in the by-election). The BQ should hold onto the seat, and the real battle will be for second place. If the Liberals can muscle ahead of the Tories, that would show the party is taking root in francophone, rural Quebec, while a Tory hold of second place would allow them to ride the narrative of a Liberal falling in Quebec. I think ultimately the Liberals will finish slightly ahead of the Conservatives.

Prediction:
BQ-43%
Liberal-27%
Conservative-23%
NDP-5%
Green-2%

Hochelaga

Probably the easiest seat to analyze, this is a safe BQ East Montreal riding. Real Menard never won less than 45% of the vote, and with the BQ lining up probable star candidate Daniel Paillé (although he must win a contested nomination first), this should be a fairly easy BQ hold. The Liberals won a respectable share of the vote last time around, and the NDP is hoping to maintain the relatively strong performance they had last time around, running 2008 candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau. I've heard no word on potential Liberal or Conservative candidates.

Prediction:
BQ: 47%
Liberal: 25%
NDP: 15%
Conservative: 9%
Green: 4%

Pre-Quebec nomination news

http://www.canada.com/Ignatieff+heads+Quebec+City+address+Coderre+fallout/2063378/story.html

This article, and many others, are quoting Coderre's statement that the Liberals had candidates in 68 of 75 ridings. As I have written before, this "68" number is probably a combination of a few things; of actual legal nominated candidates, which Pundits' Guide numbers at 31, incumbant MP's who have yet to be formally nominated, ridings in which candidates have been identified but not nominated, and probably some good old fashioned spin.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/200910/02/01-908075-jeanne-le-ber-les-liberaux-lorgnent-sebastien-dhavernas.php

We could see more Outremont-Jeanne Le Ber movement with the Liberals, with 2008 Outremont candidate and Quebec actor Sébastien Dhavernas having been asked by members of the association to take a run in his home riding.

And thanks to Facebook, I know a few more Alberta Liberal candidates:

2008 candidate Marlene LaMontagne will challenge a little-known Conservative MP named Stephen Harper again in Calgary Southwest, and 2008 candidate Donna Lynn Smith will again take on James Rajotte in Edmton-Leduc.

http://centretownnewsonline.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=997&Itemid=94

This article says for Ottawa Centre Conservatives "four people seriously considering running", which fits into previous rumours I have heard about the local riding association attempt to find other candidates than Bruce, who to my knowledge is the only candidate who has publically declared, and has the backing of the national party but not the riding association executive.

http://www.thespec.com/News/Local/article/645966

After previous indications that she would run again, former MP Paddy Torsney will not take a crack at the Liberal nomination for Burlington. Businessman Bruce Bowser now looks set to be the Liberal candidate. And in another reversal, the article also says that popular Ward 2 Councillor Bob Bratina will indeed go for the Liberal nomination in Hamilton Centre, despite previously declining to August.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/politicalbytes/2009/10/le_prohon_nom_still_on.html
Despite some rumours that she would follow Denis Coderre's lead, his preferred candidate for Outremont, Nathalie Le Prohon, confirms she will be running for the nomination in Jeanne Le Ber, where it looks like she might face previous the Outemont candidate as mentioned above.

http://www.canada.com/Bell+gets+North+Island+nomination/2057130/story.html
Former Vancouver Island North NDP MP Catherine Bell was nominated a couple days ago, trying to take back her old seat from Tory John Duncan. The riding has seen tight battles between Duncan and Bell the last 3 elections, with Duncan narrowly winning in 2004, Bell knocking him off in 2006, and Duncan reclaiming the seat in 2008.

Edit: http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/200910/02/01-908025-une-porte-de-sortie-en-or-pour-denis-coderre.php

Just found this one, making reference to two possible Quebec City area Liberal star candidates, former provincial Liberal minister Jean Leclerc who apparently is still considering a bid, and radio host Martin Pouliot of FM 93, with the later running in Beauport – Limoilou.

NDP/Green Nomination News

http://www.amherstdaily.com/index.cfm?sid=290539&sc=58

The NDP have a candidate in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, which is on the way to having a by-election unless a federal election happens. The nomination was going to be contested, but 2008 candidate Karen Olsen has stood aside for Mark Austin, a local farmer. The NDP is hoping to make gains of the back of the provincial NDP's victory in the recent election, which delivered Atlantic Canada's first NDP government, with the NS NDP winning 3 of the 5 ridings which make up CCMV.

http://www.westislandchronicle.com/article-382575-Greens-campaigning-two-elections-ahead.html
A few Green candidate names in Quebec I haven't seen before, Ryan Young in Lac St. Louis and Jonathan Lumer in Pierrefonds-Dollard. 2008 candidate Peter Graham, who ran in Lac St. Louis, is heading to the Eastern Townships to run in Compton-Stanstead.

LPCQ congrès

The LPCQ congrès is coming up this weekend, and any Young Liberal in the Ottawa-Gatineau area looking to go, just flip me an e-mail and I can get you a spot, wnorman AT connect.carleton.ca

Hope to see you in Quebec City!

Outremont update

Conflicting reports, although it might just be Google mistranslating. According to this: http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/200909/25/01-905592-martin-cauchon-gagne-outremont.php, Cauchon has "won" Outremont and "Michael Ignatieff has indeed agreed to allow Martin Cauchon to carry the Liberal banner in Outremont"

However, this report says that it has only been agreed that "Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has decided to allow an open nomination contest in the prized Montreal riding of Outremont."

If someone's whose French is better could take a look at the first article and get a better translation, that would be good.

Problem not solved?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/200909/25/01-905380-martin-cauchon-ce-sera-outremont-ou-rien.php

Outremont or nothing, says Cauchon.

Why party in-fighting is a bad thing

Here is the front page of National Newswatch right now:


On the left, articles outlying Ignatieff's economic plans in a fairly good light, and Ignatieff delivering some solid policy, something he has previous been criticized for not delievering enough of (and not just outside the party). On the right, 3 articles about party in-fighting. No bets on which set of articles gets more hits. Tous Ensemble, anyone?

It will be Nathalie Le Prohon in Outremont

These seem pretty definitive:

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales-2009/partis/parti-liberal/200909/21/01-904018-ignatieff-met-un-terme-aux-ambitions-de-cauchon-dans-outremont.php

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5h25i3bfQfHxEWC1azTTTCBWDxuAg

http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2009/09/20/002-cauchon-coderre.shtml

Cindy Duncan McMillian wins Pontiac, and Nova Scotia newa

Just came in now that McMillan will once again challenge Lawrence Cannon as Liberal candidate. I endorsed Greg Fergus last night, but this was in no way a slight to Ms. McMillan who ran a good hard campaign against Cannon last time around, and who I believe can defeat Cannon. I hope to get a chance to get out to Pontiac at least once during a general election.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Columnists/1142228.html
This article looks at election buzz in Nova Scotia, and has a few nuggets. Former Liberal MP Robert Thibault looks to run for the West Nova nomination, but he may face a challenge. Liberals are also gearing up in South Shore-St. Margaret’s, with former MP and current provincial party president Derek Wells running, as well as software engineer Mark Delory, with previous provincial candidate Rick Welsford considering a run. For the NDP, former MLA Kevin Deveaux is eyeing a run in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, currently held by Liberal Mike Savage.