Nomination news from PEI and Quebec

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/prince-edward-island/story/2010/10/22/pei-charlottetown-liberal-casey-584.html

The federal Liberal nomination in Charlottetown has a declared contender, with lawyer Sean Casey jumping in. Casey has deep roots in the party and in Charlottetown, serving as past president of the Liberal Party of Prince Edward Island and the Greater Charlottetown Area Chamber of Commerce.


http://thechronicleherald.ca/NovaScotia/1208969.html

Staying out east, former PC MLA and cabinet minister David Morse says he will run for the Conservative nomination in Kings-Hants. Morse had been the MLA for Kings South, but was defeated in the NDP wave which swept Nova Scotia in 2009. Interestingly, Morse confirmed what many have accused the Tories of, favouring government held ridings as part of government spending:

"It is increasingly obvious that Kings-Hants has paid a price as we have been left out of discretionary federal projects," Morse said in the release."

Interesting to see how those comments go over.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201010/27/01-4336693-le-bloc-confirmera-le-recrutement-dun-ancien-du-npd.php

And a bit of a grab for the BQ in Montreal, with former NDP candidate in Hochelaga Jean-Claude Rocheleau running for the BQ in the east-end riding of La Pointe-de-l'Île, being vacated by Francine Lalonde. The riding is a BQ stronghold, with Lalonde generally winning by 40-50% of the vote over her nearest competition.

By-election analysis

Nomination news has slowed to a crawl with an election now being far on the horizon in seems, but there are the 4 by-elections coming up, so I'm going to break down each parties best and worst case scenario (within reason) for the parties.

Conservatives

The best case scenario for the Conservatives would be winning back the bedrock Tory riding of Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley (which outside of Casey being elected as an independent in 2008 and Casey losing his seat in the 1993 wipeout, hasn't elected a non-Tory since the 50's) by a healthy margin over a the NDP, which looks to capitalize on the popularity of the provincial NDP, which won the popular vote and 3 of the 5 provincial ridings that make up the federal riding, a strong second place finish in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup (actually winning the seat is I think unrealistic), flipping New Westminster – Coquitlam from NDP to Tory, and getting 10% of the vote and getting the deposit back in Hochelaga, which like most East-End Montreal ridings are not fertile ground for the Conservatives. Worst case scenario, the NDP GOTV operation in CCMV turns out to be hugely effective, and the Dippers pull off an upset, the Liberals finish ahead of the Tories in MLKR with the BQ winning easily, the popularity of Donnally and HST anger propels a distant Tory finish in NWC, and Hochelaga delivers a -10% return.

NDP

The NDP go into the by-elections with high hopes, with a best case scenario being an upset in CCMV for Mark Austin, Fin Donnally comfortably holding NWC, a second place finish ahead of the Liberals in Hochelaga (they have been targetting the BQ working class vote heavily), and at least getting on the radar in MLKR, as they only won 5.5% of the vote last time around. Worst case scenario, the Tories survive comfortably with a local candidate in CCMV, putting the damper on hopes of an NDP Atlantic breakthrough, the economy first/tough on crime message of Dilworth flips NWC into the Tory column, attacks on the BQ fall flat in Hochelaga, leaving them stuck in 3rd place, and stay off the radar in MLKR.

Liberals

It's difficult to do a best case and worst case scenario for the Liberals while staying in the bounds of realism for these ridings, as none of them are Liberal friendly (to put it in perspective, in 3 of the 4 ridings last election, the Liberals didn't win a single poll in the riding, with Hochelaga returning the only Liberal polls, and not many). When I did an earlier analysis when the Liberals were doing about 10 points better in the polls than they are now I still didn't have them even coming within sniffing distance of winning, yet something tells me that after the Liberals return empty handed in terms of seat gains for this round we can expect another round of articles predicting Iggy's demise, overlooking the fact that it would be difficult to pick 4 ridings less likely to return Liberal victories outside of the rural Praries. Anyway, best case Liberal scenario, retaining second place in Hochelaga, finishing ahead of the Tories in MLRK, getting back to 10%+ (they finished in 4th with 8.5% last time), in CCMV and raise the vote in NWC to a more historically normal 20% or so. Worst case, they finish a distant third in MLRK, get jumped by the NDP in Hochelaga, finish -10% in both CCMV and NWC.

BQ

The BQ go in defending two seats, both of which are neither on a knife edge, but we can still form a best/worst case scenario. Best case is Daniel Paille continuing Real Menard's dominance of Hochelaga, with the Liberals finishing ahead of the NDP, damaging NDP hopes of prying working class francophone support from them, and comfortably holding MLRK over the Tories. Worst case, the NDP gives them a scare in Hochelaga, and the Tory GOTV operation pulls off an upset in MLRK. Hochelaga will be interesting to watch given an increasingly nasty back and forth between the BQ and NDP, with the NDP launching this attack site: http://www.blocageintermittent.ca/ and putting these posters up:

attacking Paille for his former ties to the Conservative government, which was countered by the BQ attacking NDP MP's for supporting getting rid of the gun registry with this rather brutal poster:

Greens

The Greens really have no stake either way in this round of by-elections, not running a candidate in CCMV last election and gaining between 2-7% in the other 3. If they could break 10% in NWC, which gave them 7% last time around it would be nice for them, but since they really have nowhere to go in the Quebec ones, up or down, and not running a candidate in CCMV makes direct comparisons difficult, this one is sort of a write off, analysis wise.

Quebec plans and other nomination news

This article lays out the Quebec plan for the Liberals should an election come, including what ridings to target:
http://www.ledevoir.com/2009/09/02/265221.html

According to information obtained by Le Devoir, the Liberal Party has it's eye on eight well-defined constituencies: three in Montreal (Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le Ber, Outremont), two in the Eastern Townships (Brome-Missisquoi, Compton -Stanstead), two in Outaouais (Gatineau, Pontiac) and Gaspé (Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia).

A well-placed source who knows the strategy in Quebec said that if the wind is favorable and that the campaign is going well, other districts may be added: Abitibi-Témiscamingue Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert, Saint - Lambert and Shefford.

And this nomination-centric news:
Three three ridings have been set aside for star candidate, which will be announced just before the election; Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le Ber and Outremont.

In other nomination news:

http://www.theobserver.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1725945

The contested Sarnia-Lambton Liberal nomination between Tim Fugard and Anne Marie Gillis is to be settled "soon...within the month."

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/689723

This article says that the Liberals have nomined 138 candidates, however Punditsguide.ca has us listed at 58, so I assume they are including incumbants. If they are, that might be a sign that no Liberal incumbant plans on retiring just yet.

http://icilevis.com/fr/index-lecture.aspx?sortcode=1.34.35&id_article=2037

Back in Quebec, the Liberals nominated Nicole Larouche, a local councilwoman, in the riding of Lotbinière – Chutes-de-la-Chaudière. The riding is held by Tory backbencher Jacques Gourde. The article also mentions that the Liberals want to run at least 25 women candidates in Quebec out of 75.

http://www.cfin-fm.com/Dans-Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere-0209095.html

Something interesting out of the same riding, as former Liberal MP Gaston Gourde, who represented the riding of Lévis (one of the precursor ridings) from 1981-1984, will run for the Bloc Quebecois nomination. The article also mentions Laforesterie Francis, a resident of St-Michel as the Liberal candidate for the next-door riding of Lévis – Bellechasse.


http://www.londontopic.ca/article.php?artid=15726
The NDP will have 2 London-area nomination meetings tomorrow, with London-Fanshawe incumbant Irene Mathyssen and 2008 Elgin-Middlesex-London candidate Ryan Dolby both being re-nominated for their respective ridings.

Non-Montreal trip nomination news

I ended up not going to Montreal due to a cold, but at least I can provide you readers with nomination updates.

http://www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1716061

2008 Liberal candidate Betsy McGregor will once again run in Peterborough, having been acclaimed.

http://www.niagarafallsreview.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1715805

A contested Liberal nomination in Niagara Falls, however, as 2008 candidate Joyce Morocco, and local lawyer Bev Hodgson will compete. The winner will face Justice Minister Rob Nicholson, one of the more experienced Conservative MP's, who was originally elected as a Mulroney PC in 1984 and served until being defeated in 1993. Nicholson attempted to get back into Parliament in 1997 but was unsuccessful, but managed to get back in his next time around, in 2004.

No news source for this one, but the Laurier-Sainte Marie Liberals have their nomination meeting tomorrow, and while the riding association had put out feelers to several candidates (including a rumour that former PQ leader Andre Boisclair was "open" to running), only one candidate put his name forward, Philippe Allard, so he looks to be acclaimed.

http://www.lavantage.qc.ca/200908266051/actualites/claude_guimond_se_tient_pret.html
A couple tidbits from Rimouski-Neigette-Temiscouata-Les Basques in this article. 2008 Tory candidate Gaston Noel, a local mayor, has not ruled out running again, while Guy Caron, who has ran for the NDP in the riding in the last three election, will not be running.

http://www.lanouvelle.net/article-370145-Kaven-Mathieu-reagit-aux-propos-de-Michael-Ignatieff.html
The BQ have picked a candidate to go against Christian Paradis in Mégantic – L'Érable, Kaven Mathieu. The riding has shifted from Liberal to BQ to Conservative since it's creation.


http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/group.php?gid=2244638688
Shifting back to Ontario, Punditsguide.ca reported that former Liberal MP Susan Kadis would not be running again in Thornhill, and a possible candidate has emerged, with Kadis' Facebook group being renamed in support of Dr. Karen Mock, who has been heavily involved and recognized for her work with anti-racism campaigns.

Ottawa area news/rumours (and one Quebec nomination)

Just got back from a great time phone canvassing for Scott Bradley (more on that in a bit), but I have heard two pieces of news in the Ottawa area:

Isabel Metcalfe, who had been considering a bid for the Ottawa Centre nomination, has dropped out. With Metcalfe out, it looks increasingly likely that the race will come down to Bradley vs. Yale, although rumours a third candidate have not entirely gone out.

In perhaps juicer news, apparently one of the pieces of gossip going around the big Tory training conference going on in Ottawa the last couple days is the John Baird is considering not running in the next election. Baird has basically served as Harper's Ontario lieutenant since getting elected in 2006 and as constantly been considered one of the most powerful ministers in cabinet, so him leaving would be a blow. Also interesting, is that even if this rumour turns out to be totally false, I have had more than a couple people tell me that staffers for Jason Kenney are behind said rumours.

Also, Joliette held it's Liberal nomination meeting today, and 2008 candidate Suzie St-Onge will carry the Liberal banner once again, according to this article: http://www.laction.com/article-361914-Suzie-StOnge-sera-candidate-liberale-dans-Joliette.html

The riding is held by BQ House Leader Pierre Paquette, who many have seen as a potential successor to Gilles Duceppe (and who made a declaration that he was considering running for BQ leadership during the 24 hour period in which it seemed Duceppe would depart for the PQ leadership race). Despite being one of the few Quebec seats to regularly send a Tory back to Quebec between 1968-1984 in the form of Roch La Salle, the BQ has held the seat with large margins since 1993, the "closest" election between 2000, when Paquette was taking over from a BQ incumbant, but still won the riding by a 52%-34% margin, and it wouldn't be a stretch to say the seat is one of the safest in the province for the BQ.

NDP sells out official bilingualism?

I was reading this: http://www.cfrb.com/node/938765 which is otherwise an unremarkable article about how the Bloc stands to target Ignatieff and the Liberals in Quebec, but this stands out:

On Wednesday a private members bill, C-307, put forward by Bloc MP Pierre Paquette, was voted down by the combined forces of the Conservatives and Liberals. The NDP supported the bill. What the bill sought to do was have Quebec's Charter of the French Language, often called Bill 101, applied to federally regulated businesses in Quebec such as banks or radio stations.

While having Bill 101 apply to federal agencies/regulated businesses in Quebec is a longstanding BQ rallying cry, but since when has the NDP supported it? Given that having federal business done in Quebec be in French only would basically void the idea of official national bilingualism, since when has the NDP been in favour of selling out one of the greatest things about Canada?