New nomination news

Make sure to check out the Winter Tour kickoff in Ottawa West-Nepean with Michael Ignatieff and Anita Vandenbeld on Jan 12 if you're in the Ottawa-Gatineau area!

http://www.facebook.com/#!/event.php?eid=173291749375363
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http://www.timescolonist.com/news/Garrison+nomination+Esquimalt+Juan+Fuca/4053196/story.html

2004 and 2006 candidate and Esquimalt city councilour Randall Garrisson annouced today he would take another crack at Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca, with incumbant Liberal MP Keith Martin, who narrowly bested Garrisson in both elections not running again. Interestingly, provincial BC president Moe Sihota, who has come under fire at times for getting paid directly by BC unions, and the controversy now brewing over his handling of the potential BC NDP leadership candidacy of marijuana activist Dana Larsen was apparently also considering a run, but decided against it.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Going+longest+shot/4044042/story.html

Some discussion of the possible upcoming Calgary Centre-North by-election, and if the Liberals can build on an upset victory in Winnipeg North with another suprisingly strong showing in Western Canada. Apparently the party has at least one interested candidate:


Fridhandler (the Alberta federal co-chair) has been courting a promising candidate for the riding -- a professor at the University of Calgary who is a political neophyte but, apparently, interested.

At one point I had heard rumours that outgoing Calgary mayor Dave Bronconnier was a possibility for the Liberal candidacy, so we'll see how that pans out.

The author of the piece also speculates that the Tories awarding the nomination to Michelle Rempel a loyal but lower profile party activist might also backfire.

She may turn out to be a terrific campaigner, but when parties reward faithful members with safe seats it suggests complacency.

The two candidates Naheed Nenshi defeated to win the mayorality, Ric McIver and Barb Higgins had at one point both expressed interest in the Tory nomination, but nothing ultimately came of that.

Lots of nomination news for all!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/can-spurned-afghan-detainee-watchdog-topple-tory-mp/article1827850/

Solid candidate recruitment for the Liberals in Eastern Ontario, with Peter Tinsley,
former chair of the Military Police Complaints Commission, who will seek the Liberal nomination (and will almost certainly be the candidate) in Prince Edward-Hastings. Tinsley failed to be reappointed as chair after his investigations into the Afghan detainee file.

http://www.thespec.com/news/local/article/282425--braden-seeks-liberal-nomination

And a contested nomination is in the works in ADFW, with longtime municipal councilor and environmental activist Dave Braden seeking the Liberal nomination, alongside former Ancaster councillor Bryan Kerman, and Maple Leaf Foods vice-president for environmental affairs Anne Tennier of Waterdown.

http://www.nsnews.com/news/2011+bumper+year+sausages/3930128/story.html

Interesting race shaping up in North Vancouver for the Liberals, with municipal councilor Roger Bassam now facing Kevin O'Brien, a veteran MLA and former speaker of the assembly in Nunavut. No word on former Green candidate Jim Stepehenson, who seemed to have declared a run, possibly dropped out, and maybe jumped back in.

Read more: http://www.nsnews.com/news/2011+bumper+year+sausages/3930128/story.html#ixzz17YtOYADD

http://www.simcoe.com/news/article/911725--guergis-insists-she-still-has-support


This article on the Conservative nomination for Simcoe-Grey mentions a name I haven't seen mentioned before, Paul Throop, a longtime Tory activist and staffer to Peter MacKay, who will face off against Collingwood mayor Chris Carrier and the star candidate who seems heavily favoured by the party establishment,orthopedic surgeon Kellie Leitch.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/kootenay_rockies/kootenayadvertiser/news/111282494.html

The Kootenay-Columbia Tory nomination has gained a new contestant, Dale Shudra, a local businessman.

http://www.ngnews.ca/News/Local/2010-11-30/article-2006683/County-councillor-David-Parker-seeking-federal-NDP-nomination/1

Rounding thing up, county councillor David Parker is looking for the NDP nomination for Central Nova. David is the brother of a local NDP MLA.

Non-Ottawa West-Nepean nomination news

http://www.dailytownsman.com/article/20101122/CRANBROOK0101/311229983/-1/cranbrook/bennett-steps-off-plane-as-an-independent

Now former BC Liberal MLA and cabinet minister Bill Bennett, who now sits as an independent after being expelled from the Liberal caucus, has left the door open for a run for the federal Conservatives.


Bennett also said the possibility of seeking the Federal Conservative nomination for the riding of Kootenay-Columbia wasn't out of the question.

"It was certainly something I thought about six months ago, and declined, and said that I wasn't interested. This whole thing has caused me to put it back on the list of options. But it's not at the top of the list at the present time. I think I need some time to think things through, and figure out what's best for me, my wife and my family, and frankly, what's best for the people of Kootenay East."

http://www.canadaeast.com/news/article/1320274

Further east, nominated Liberal candidate for Fredericton, Pam Campbell, is stepping down from her position as candidate. Campbell was nominated a little over a year ago.

Prince George area nomination news

The Tory nomination in this soon to be vacant riding has a new contender, Tumbler Ridge Councillor Jerrilyn Schembri.

http://www.energeticcity.ca/fortstjohn/news/10/11/10/five-candidates-now-running-conservative-nomination

While several other candidates in the race have backgrounds in municipal politics, Schembri does bring a couple interesting dynamics to the race. First, in addition to being the only female candidate in the race, Schembri could potentially be the first centre-right female candidate to right in the riding ever. A look back at the candidates for the Conservative Party/Canadian Alliance/Reform Party/PC Party/Social Credit Party candidates for the riding (and counting the old riding of Cariboo) a grand total of zero of those candidates have been female, as far as I can tell. Secondly, compared to the old school Tory roots of the other competitors, she has only been a party member for a few months. Given that the riding is one of the safest for conservative parties in the country, (since 1945, it has had non conservative (Socred, PC, Reform, Alliance, Conservative) MP's only between 45-49 and 68-72) it might be safe to assume a fairly large and active party base, so unless she can sell a ton of new memberships she might have trouble cracking into the old boys club.

Keeping in the same area, this is a couple weeks old, but still has something:
http://www.bclocalnews.com/bc_thompson_nicola/kamloopsthisweek/news/104108503.html

The Christian Heritage Party will have candidate in Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, with 2006 Cariboo-Prince George CHP candidate Chris Kempling setting a target of 1,000 votes, but the article also says that former riding association presidnt Murray Todd has put his name forward for the Liberals.

BC nomination candidates for Liberals and Conservatives

Lot of news coming out of BC lately, it seems. Here we go.

http://www.nsnews.com/news/Bassam+face+nomination+fight/3650685/story.html

Former District of North Vancouver councillor Roger Bassam who was rumoured to be interested in the Liberal nomination for the federal riding of the same name, has officially entered the race. The article also mentions former Green Party candidate Jim Stephenson as "an official federal Liberal nomination candidate", although I had heard that he had previously dropped out, unless he has decided to re-enter the race. Bassam was a former assisstant to previous Liberal MP Don Bell, and the article frames a potential race between Bassam and Stepehnson as perhaps being a battle between Liberal voters who want to continue in Bell's footsteps and elect a candidate with close ties to him, and more left-wing Liberals who want a candidate that can perhaps steal votes from the NDP and Green Party.

http://www.energeticcity.ca/fortstjohn/news/10/07/10/cameron-stoltz-seeking-conservative-nomination

The already crowded race for the federal Conservative nomination in Jay Hill's seat has another contender, Cameron Stoltz, a city councillor from Prince George. An interesting side note of the race is that the 3 other candidates all have education backgrounds; longtime Tory organizer Don Irwin, a local municipal councilor and principal of a local Christian high school, Bob Zimmer, longtime Conservative activist and high school teacher, and Dan Davies, another city councilor and teacher. Zimmers's campaign if he were to win would be interesting for the federal party, as local anti-HST forces seem to have lined up behind his campaign. Zimmer is also active with the local upstart BC Conservative Party (http://www.northeastnews.ca/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=631:movement-underway-to-revive-bc-conservative-party-&catid=10:news&Itemid=12) which has campaigned hard against the HST. With Hill stepping down from the House in a few weeks, it looks to be a fast and furious nomination campaign.

BC and Ontario nomination news

The Conservatives are continuing a push for former OPP commish Julian Fantino to run for the Tories in Vaughn.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/pm-pressing-julian-fantino-to-run-source-says/article1741349/

Harper himself has apparently been in touch with Fantino to try and land him as a star candidate, with Fantino "leaning" towards taking a run. Only Kevin Bordian of the NDP (who are pretty much a non-factor in the seat) has been nominated, although
Tony Genco, who ran for the Liberals provincially in 1999 and has recently served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Downsview Park is looking at a run for the Liberals, and I've heard some rumours around a possible Liberal run by Steven Del Duca, a Director of the Vaughan Health Care Foundation and former EA to Greg Sorbara who is currently running for city council.

In BC, former Liberal MLA and cabinet minister Blair Lekstrom, who left the Liberal caucus saying his constituents were opposed to the HST (although noticably made no comment over his own personal position towards it) now says he will run again in his riding of Peace River South. Lekstrom had been rumoured to be interested in the federal Conservative nomination in Prince George-Peace River with current Tory MP Jay Hill stepping down next election.

http://www.globaltvbc.com/Liberal+Leckstrom+will+again/3621311/story.html

Nomination news from BC and Quebec

Haven't had a blog post on nominations in a bit, but here we go.

http://www.nsnews.com/news/Deceit+compounds+broken+promise/3512705/story.html

District of North Vancouver councillor Roger Bassam says he has been approached by the federal Liberals as a potential candidate in North Vancouver, and is considering taking a run.


"Bassam who worked as an assistant for former Liberal MP Don Bell is not discounting the possibility.

"As for your question, yes I have been approached by many local Liberals offering support if I run. I am exploring that option with the federal reps as we speak and should come to a decision soon. I will let you know how that conversation goes," Bassam said."

At last count, 2008 Green Party candidate Jim Stephenson, and former Liberal MP Don Bell were both considering going after the nomination.

Sticking with the Liberals but switching provinces, Jeanne-Le Ber will have a contested nomination meeting on October 3. The candidates are Mark Bruneau, a businessman who narrowly lost the 2008 nomination, Jean-Pierre Belanger, Kimberley Darlington, an events producer, and Pascal Zamprelli, media relations officer for McGill University. The riding has been a close Liberal-BQ fight for several elections, and if the Liberals want to pick up seats in Quebec, this should be a top target.

Also, in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, Jacques Cadieux who has previously ran for the ADQ was also nominated back in August.

Sticking with Quebec, but switching parties, this article: http://www.thesuburbannews.ca/content/en/5323 discusses some potential candidates for the Conservatives around Montreal.

2008 candidate in Laval – Les Îles, Agop Everekian, a chief of staff to Jason Kenney seems to be taking a run in Pierrefonds-Dollard this time around, and Mary Deros, a Montreal city councillor who lost the federal Liberal nomination for Papineau to Justin Trudeau is rumoured to be considering a run for the Tories this time, and in a move to get a potential star candidate, Montreal Alouettes president Larry Smith is apparently being lobbied to take a run for the Conservatives in his home riding of Vaudreuil-Soulanges.

Yet more western nomination news

http://www2.canada.com/chilliwacktimes/news/story.html?id=dd209b7a-5b92-4751-8da7-9292fd5db710

Former provincial NDP candidate Gwen O'Mahony was acclaimed to be the federal NDP candidate in Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon, currently held by Tory cabinet minister Chuck Strahl.

More nomination news from the West

A good look at the contenders for the Tory nomination in Lethbridge here: http://www.examiner.com/x-39080-Calgary-Conservative-Examiner~y2010m4d20-The-real-election-Lethbridge-Conservative-nomination

http://www.dailytownsman.com/article/20100419/CRANBROOK0101/304199976/-1/cranbrook/creston-woman-seeking-ndp-nomination

And from BC, local businesswoman Rhonda Barter is going after the NDP nomination in Kootenay-Columbia, and 2004 and 2006 NDP candidate Brent Bush is considering going after the Liberal nomination.

Nomination news from the West

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/mla-lamoureux-to-seek-nomination-for-federal-seat-91014009.html

Liberal MLA Kevin Lamoureux confirmed the rumours, and will run for the federal Liberal nomination in Winnipeg North. Roldan Sevillano Jr., who had been nominated as the federal candidate back in November, is stepping down to run for a provincial seat.

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/news/Councillor+gets+Liberal+nomination/2913674/story.html
Saskatoon city councillor Darren Hill won the Liberal nomination in Saskatoon-Humboldt last night, defeating Susan Hayton, a local physician.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/news/90621644.html

Sparwood Mayor David Wilks has declared his intention to go after the Tory nomination in Kootenay-Columbia, with incumbent Conservative MP Jim Abbott stepping down next election.

http://www.kamloopsnews.ca/article/20100414/KAMLOOPS0101/304149960/-1/KAMLOOPS01/green-nominee-has-eye-on-commons-vote

Staying in BC, local carpenter Kevin Ortner is expected to be acclaimed for the Green Party in Kamloops – Thompson – Cariboo this Sunday.

News from out West

http://www.am1150.ca/node/1103627

The NDP nominated a candidate in Kelowna – Lake Country, with Tisha Kalmanovitch winning by acclamation. The riding is a Tory stronghold, with Rob Cannan collecting 55.9% of the vote last time around.

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/news/Hill+seek+federal+seat/2700210/story.html

Saskatoon city councillor Darren Hill says he'll go after the Liberal nomination in Saskatoon-Humboldt. The riding has a bit of an odd history, being home to a legitimate 4 way race in 2004, with under 2,500 votes separating the winner, current Tory MP Brad Trost, and former MP Jim Pankiw, with the Liberal and NDP candidates losing by under 400 votes. Pankiw, who has a controversial history, is running for his old riding again after going over to Battlefords – Lloydminster in 2006 and finishing a respectable if distant third. Pankiw seems like he can carry a decent number of votes, if not win a riding, and if he can hold his own and either NDP or Liberal numbers spike, the race could get interesting.

NDP look set to have candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands

http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/Federal-Politics/2010/03/17/LoringKuhanga/

Only one candidate has thus far declared for the NDP in Saanich-Gulf Islands, Edith Loring-Kuhanga, a first nations educator and conference organizer. Saanich-Gulf Islands is notably the riding in which Green Party leader Elizabeth May is nominated to run in, although she won't have the benefit of the Liberals sitting it out, as Renée Heatherington, the Liberal candidate, has strong environmental credentials of her own. Last election saw incumbant Gary Lunn hold the seat for the Tories narrowly over Liberal star candidate Briony Penn, a former Green Party supporter, and the strange case of Julian West, the NDP candidate (and also a former Green) drop out of the race after allegations of indecency (which included underaged girls and nude swimming).

2010 early nomination news

http://www.saultstar.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=2249772

The Tories could have an interesting nomination battle in Sault Ste. Marie, with Bryan Hayes, a long-time city councillor saying he has his eyes on the nomination. This would bring him into potential conflict with city mayor John Rowswell, who has battled publically with NDP MP Tony Martin and has made his interest in the nomination well known. Rowswell isn't running for mayor again, which would free him up to pursue the federal nomination. This article: http://www.sootoday.com/content/news/full_story.asp?StoryNumber=43896 also gives a few more names for a potential Tory nomination battle, Dr. David Walde, the Director of the Oncology Program at Sault Area Hospital, and Ted Nolan, former NHL player and coach, who was rumoured to be considering a provincial run for the PC's back in 2003.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/tri_city_maple_ridge/mapleridgenews/news/80751932.html
2008 Liberal candidate Dan Olson says that despite a health scare, he intends to run for the Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission nomination again, and doesn't know of any challengers he could face.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/breaking_news/80749162.html
Sticking in the same riding, Mike Bocking, who has ran 3 times federally, and once provincially for the NDP in the area and come up short each time, sometimes by narrow margins, confirms that he will not run again and that the area NDP is looking for someone, with no names confirmed, which conflicts with earlier news that David Murray, a parks and services employee with the City of Port Coquitlam was seeking the nomination.

Post Cop 15 nomination news

Been a long time since I did one of these.


http://www.kingsentinel.com/news/2009-12-16/Front_Page/Black_withdraws_from_federal_race.html

The Liberal candidate for Newmarket-Aurora, King mayor Margaret Black, has stepped down to focus on a sixth run for mayor. Black was nominated back in August. It will be interesting to see if candidates like Newmarket councillor Chris Emanuel and 2008 candidate and former Aurora mayor Tim Jones jump back into the race. They hadbeen in the running previously but both dropped out, clearing the way for Black to be acclaimed.

http://www.caledoncitizen.com/news/2009-12-17/News/Dufferin__Caledon_federal_Liberals_nominate_Bill_P.html

Bill Prout has been officially nominated for the Liberals in Dufferin-Caledon. Readers may remember former MP Garth Turner making a play for the Liberal nomination and subsequently dropping out in a characteristic huff.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/opinion/letters/78812472.html

This article mentions a name going for the NDP nomination in Langley, Piotr Majkowski, a registered nurse.

By-election analysis

Nomination news has slowed to a crawl with an election now being far on the horizon in seems, but there are the 4 by-elections coming up, so I'm going to break down each parties best and worst case scenario (within reason) for the parties.

Conservatives

The best case scenario for the Conservatives would be winning back the bedrock Tory riding of Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley (which outside of Casey being elected as an independent in 2008 and Casey losing his seat in the 1993 wipeout, hasn't elected a non-Tory since the 50's) by a healthy margin over a the NDP, which looks to capitalize on the popularity of the provincial NDP, which won the popular vote and 3 of the 5 provincial ridings that make up the federal riding, a strong second place finish in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup (actually winning the seat is I think unrealistic), flipping New Westminster – Coquitlam from NDP to Tory, and getting 10% of the vote and getting the deposit back in Hochelaga, which like most East-End Montreal ridings are not fertile ground for the Conservatives. Worst case scenario, the NDP GOTV operation in CCMV turns out to be hugely effective, and the Dippers pull off an upset, the Liberals finish ahead of the Tories in MLKR with the BQ winning easily, the popularity of Donnally and HST anger propels a distant Tory finish in NWC, and Hochelaga delivers a -10% return.

NDP

The NDP go into the by-elections with high hopes, with a best case scenario being an upset in CCMV for Mark Austin, Fin Donnally comfortably holding NWC, a second place finish ahead of the Liberals in Hochelaga (they have been targetting the BQ working class vote heavily), and at least getting on the radar in MLKR, as they only won 5.5% of the vote last time around. Worst case scenario, the Tories survive comfortably with a local candidate in CCMV, putting the damper on hopes of an NDP Atlantic breakthrough, the economy first/tough on crime message of Dilworth flips NWC into the Tory column, attacks on the BQ fall flat in Hochelaga, leaving them stuck in 3rd place, and stay off the radar in MLKR.

Liberals

It's difficult to do a best case and worst case scenario for the Liberals while staying in the bounds of realism for these ridings, as none of them are Liberal friendly (to put it in perspective, in 3 of the 4 ridings last election, the Liberals didn't win a single poll in the riding, with Hochelaga returning the only Liberal polls, and not many). When I did an earlier analysis when the Liberals were doing about 10 points better in the polls than they are now I still didn't have them even coming within sniffing distance of winning, yet something tells me that after the Liberals return empty handed in terms of seat gains for this round we can expect another round of articles predicting Iggy's demise, overlooking the fact that it would be difficult to pick 4 ridings less likely to return Liberal victories outside of the rural Praries. Anyway, best case Liberal scenario, retaining second place in Hochelaga, finishing ahead of the Tories in MLRK, getting back to 10%+ (they finished in 4th with 8.5% last time), in CCMV and raise the vote in NWC to a more historically normal 20% or so. Worst case, they finish a distant third in MLRK, get jumped by the NDP in Hochelaga, finish -10% in both CCMV and NWC.

BQ

The BQ go in defending two seats, both of which are neither on a knife edge, but we can still form a best/worst case scenario. Best case is Daniel Paille continuing Real Menard's dominance of Hochelaga, with the Liberals finishing ahead of the NDP, damaging NDP hopes of prying working class francophone support from them, and comfortably holding MLRK over the Tories. Worst case, the NDP gives them a scare in Hochelaga, and the Tory GOTV operation pulls off an upset in MLRK. Hochelaga will be interesting to watch given an increasingly nasty back and forth between the BQ and NDP, with the NDP launching this attack site: http://www.blocageintermittent.ca/ and putting these posters up:

attacking Paille for his former ties to the Conservative government, which was countered by the BQ attacking NDP MP's for supporting getting rid of the gun registry with this rather brutal poster:

Greens

The Greens really have no stake either way in this round of by-elections, not running a candidate in CCMV last election and gaining between 2-7% in the other 3. If they could break 10% in NWC, which gave them 7% last time around it would be nice for them, but since they really have nowhere to go in the Quebec ones, up or down, and not running a candidate in CCMV makes direct comparisons difficult, this one is sort of a write off, analysis wise.

Liberal candidate in Skeena-Bulkley Valley, trouble for the Tories in London-Fanshawe

http://www.bclocalnews.com/bc_north/terracestandard/news/65912987.html

Former local mayor Sharon Hartwell was nominated as the Liberal candidate in Skeena – Bulkley Valley on October 24th. Hartwell has strong local cred (mayor for 12 years, village councillor for 6 years prior, chair of the North West Hospital District, executive in the Union of B.C. Municipalities and then with the Federation of Canadian Municipalities) and is probably a good bet to raise the Liberal vote in the riding above the 5% showing last time around.

http://www.lfpress.com/news/london/2009/10/24/11510791-sun.html

The Tories might have a situation on hand in London-Fanshawe, with wannabe nomination candidate Gilles Rancourt quitting the party and jumping ship to the Christian Heritage Party, saying that;

"he left a Conservative party that doesn't embrace ethnic members and cares little for grassroots... he said he has spent years wooing members of the ethnic community to the Conservatives, which he says have "no black, yellow, red or brown faces in attendance at local party events."

Turkey time nominations

http://www2.canada.com/burnabynow/news/story.html?id=1d358a67-b2e6-48ee-a804-264f315a7bfc

Former Tory MP Paul Forseth, who represented New Westminster-Burnaby/New Westminster-Coquitlam from 1993-2006, is back in politics after missing a chance at being the Tory candidate for the NWC by-election. Forseth was acclaimed for the Tory nomination for the next door riding of Burnaby-New Westminster on the 3rd. The riding saw 3-way fights in 2004 and 2006, like many ridings lower mainland, with the NDP's Peter Julian winning in 2004 very narrowly over the Liberals Mary Pynenburg, who also ran in 2006. The 2008 election saw the Liberal vote slip mostly to the advantage of the NDP and Green's.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/kootenay_rockies/castlegarnews/news/63645192.html
More for the Tories in BC, with 3 candidates going after the nomination the BC Southern Interior, another NDP held seat. Meagan Salekin, 2008 candidate Rob Zandee, and Stephen Hill are the candidates, with voting ending on the 14th.

By-election analysis

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/091003/national/fed_byelections

With 4 by-elections now seemingly coming up, now seems as good a time as any to take a look at each riding.

New Westminster – Coquitlam

Located on the edge of greater Vancouver, the riding is a traditionally a swing riding between the NDP and the PC's/Reform/Alliance/Conservatives, (the Liberals haven't won in the area that makes up the riding since the 1968 Trudeau victory) although the Liberals have occasionally made it a 3 way race when the vote has split since then, finishing close thirds in 1993, 1997 and 2004. The Liberal vote collapsed last election, going from 23.5% and 11,931 votes in 2006 to 11.3% and 5,615 votes in 2008. The riding has been often been a person battle between Dawn Black from the NDP and Paul Forseth from the Conservatives, facing each other in 2006, 1997, and 1993. On paper, this is the Liberals best chance of winning one of the 4 by-elections, although that isn't saying much, a more realistic goal would be lifting the Liberal vote from the lows of the 2008 results into the mid-20% range that the party usually turns in when it is perfoming normally. From all I have heard, Fin Donnelly was a good choice for NDP candidate, as the riding is often split between the more NDP friendly New Westminster and the more Tory Coquitlam, and Donnelly was a fairly popular Coquitlam councilor, so in addition to the normal NW NDP vote that helped Dawn Black, he can probably have a personal vote in Coquitlam. The Liberals should, as I said, focus on simply trying to reach say, 25% to show they are back on their feet in the ridings, and should in particular try to work on getting Green voters to go Liberal.

Prediction:
NDP-39%
Conservative-32%
Liberal-23%
Green-6%
(I didn't do it deliberately, but this result would basically mirror the 2006 result)

Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley

The NDP has high hopes for this rural Nova Scotia riding, vacated by former Tory Bill Casey. They are still hoping to ride the wave created by the provincial party's victory in the most recent provincial election, in which the NS NDP won 3 of the 5 provincial ridings in CCMV, and if the combined total of all those ridings were combined, it would produce an NDP victory. I think though, that the Tories should hold this one. Conservative candidate Scott Armstrong was a middle-man between Casey and the federal Conservatives, and is respected by both Casey loyalists and Tory diehards, so he should be able to pull out most of the old Tory vote for himself. The riding has a very long Tory history, with Casey's election as an independent, and the 1993 PC wipeout (in which Casey lost the seat) being the only times the riding has voted anything but Conservative since 1957 (and even prior to that, the seat leaned Conservative, going all the way back to Father of Confederation Charles Tupper). I expect a Tory victory with the NDP a strong second, and the Liberals making up some of the ground they lost in 2008.

Conservative-46%
NDP-34%
Liberal-18%
Green-2%

Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup

Held by the BQ since 1993, the Conservatives had hoped that the Mario Dumont effect would deliver this seat to them as part of the Quebec breakthrough that would yield a Tory majority, which ended up falling flat (although the riding was ultimately one of the few in Quebec in which the Conservatives did better in 2008 than in 2006). Prior to 1993, the seat had flipped a couple times between the Liberals and the PC's (and featured the Rhino Party finishing in third ahead of the NDP in 1984). The Tories had hoped to lure Dumont into federal politics and take a run at this seat, but Dumont declined, and the 15% showing of the ADQ in the Riviere-du-Loup by-election that followed Dumont stepping down can't bode well for the Conservatives (in fairness, many Quebec Conservatives were supporting the Quebec Liberal Party candidate in the by-election). The BQ should hold onto the seat, and the real battle will be for second place. If the Liberals can muscle ahead of the Tories, that would show the party is taking root in francophone, rural Quebec, while a Tory hold of second place would allow them to ride the narrative of a Liberal falling in Quebec. I think ultimately the Liberals will finish slightly ahead of the Conservatives.

Prediction:
BQ-43%
Liberal-27%
Conservative-23%
NDP-5%
Green-2%

Hochelaga

Probably the easiest seat to analyze, this is a safe BQ East Montreal riding. Real Menard never won less than 45% of the vote, and with the BQ lining up probable star candidate Daniel Paillé (although he must win a contested nomination first), this should be a fairly easy BQ hold. The Liberals won a respectable share of the vote last time around, and the NDP is hoping to maintain the relatively strong performance they had last time around, running 2008 candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau. I've heard no word on potential Liberal or Conservative candidates.

Prediction:
BQ: 47%
Liberal: 25%
NDP: 15%
Conservative: 9%
Green: 4%

Pre-Quebec nomination news

http://www.canada.com/Ignatieff+heads+Quebec+City+address+Coderre+fallout/2063378/story.html

This article, and many others, are quoting Coderre's statement that the Liberals had candidates in 68 of 75 ridings. As I have written before, this "68" number is probably a combination of a few things; of actual legal nominated candidates, which Pundits' Guide numbers at 31, incumbant MP's who have yet to be formally nominated, ridings in which candidates have been identified but not nominated, and probably some good old fashioned spin.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/200910/02/01-908075-jeanne-le-ber-les-liberaux-lorgnent-sebastien-dhavernas.php

We could see more Outremont-Jeanne Le Ber movement with the Liberals, with 2008 Outremont candidate and Quebec actor Sébastien Dhavernas having been asked by members of the association to take a run in his home riding.

And thanks to Facebook, I know a few more Alberta Liberal candidates:

2008 candidate Marlene LaMontagne will challenge a little-known Conservative MP named Stephen Harper again in Calgary Southwest, and 2008 candidate Donna Lynn Smith will again take on James Rajotte in Edmton-Leduc.

http://centretownnewsonline.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=997&Itemid=94

This article says for Ottawa Centre Conservatives "four people seriously considering running", which fits into previous rumours I have heard about the local riding association attempt to find other candidates than Bruce, who to my knowledge is the only candidate who has publically declared, and has the backing of the national party but not the riding association executive.

http://www.thespec.com/News/Local/article/645966

After previous indications that she would run again, former MP Paddy Torsney will not take a crack at the Liberal nomination for Burlington. Businessman Bruce Bowser now looks set to be the Liberal candidate. And in another reversal, the article also says that popular Ward 2 Councillor Bob Bratina will indeed go for the Liberal nomination in Hamilton Centre, despite previously declining to August.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/politicalbytes/2009/10/le_prohon_nom_still_on.html
Despite some rumours that she would follow Denis Coderre's lead, his preferred candidate for Outremont, Nathalie Le Prohon, confirms she will be running for the nomination in Jeanne Le Ber, where it looks like she might face previous the Outemont candidate as mentioned above.

http://www.canada.com/Bell+gets+North+Island+nomination/2057130/story.html
Former Vancouver Island North NDP MP Catherine Bell was nominated a couple days ago, trying to take back her old seat from Tory John Duncan. The riding has seen tight battles between Duncan and Bell the last 3 elections, with Duncan narrowly winning in 2004, Bell knocking him off in 2006, and Duncan reclaiming the seat in 2008.

Edit: http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/200910/02/01-908025-une-porte-de-sortie-en-or-pour-denis-coderre.php

Just found this one, making reference to two possible Quebec City area Liberal star candidates, former provincial Liberal minister Jean Leclerc who apparently is still considering a bid, and radio host Martin Pouliot of FM 93, with the later running in Beauport – Limoilou.

Late nomination news

Renee Hetherington has won the Saanich-Gulf Islands Liberal nomination, while Jim Burrows crushed 2008 candidate Tracy Parsons in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, winning 175 of 206 votes.