Richmond Street Liberals

The Ottawa Centre Liberal nomination has been set for Sept 9th, and to celebrate, I went out to a Scott Bradley meet and greet on Richmond Road.

I think the location of the event was telling. So often we as Liberals, and particularly in Ottawa Centre, look to Wellington Street as the centre of the universe. We think of Ottawa Centre as being entirely inside the Queensway, filled with other politicos with the same-mind set and background. We don't see Ottawa Centre as a riding of young families, immigrants, students, the GLBTQ community, small business owners, junior civil servants. We think that all it takes to win the riding is to build the biggest army, go to all the right community events, and tell how only a Liberal MP can get things done.

How we need to think is to be Richmond Street Liberals. To realize that it isn't just about having the biggest army, but to really engage with the community and develop solid community policies to give that army marching orders. It won't matter how big and how hard working a team we have (and we will have a strong Ottawa Centre team regardless who wins), if we are not engaged with the community, and running the kind of campaign that bring soft Liberal-NDP voters, non-partisan progressives who support Paul Dewar because they think he does a good job, centrists who have become disengaged from the party, and others who have supported us in Ottawa Centre in the past back to the party, our army will be knocking on plenty of doors, but plenty of Paul Dewar doors.

I will be supporting Scott Bradley for the nomination on the 9th because I believe he has the best handle on the type of Ottawa Centre that we need to focus on if we want to win this riding back. Scott Bradley is a Richmond Street Liberal, a man of the community and the grassroots, and we need a man like him in Ottawa Centre if we want a change.

A closer look at Brian "Undertaker" McGarry

McGarry shown with climate change denier John Baird and failed defense minister Gordon O'Conner.

Brian "Undertaker" McGarry, is the Conservative candidate for Ottawa Centre. He is apparently a "Red Tory", as described by the yahoo's at the Free Dominion board, and I believe he endorsed the openly gay Alex Munter for mayor of Ottawa in the last municipal election. Now Ottawa Centre does tend to be a left leaning riding, so running a Red Tory makes some sense (Keith Fountain, the previous Conservative candidate, was vocally pro-gay marriage).

But what about McGarry's actual experience and positions? Well, he runs a funeral service (thus the name undertaker), and once sued a rival company over an ad he found offensive, was on the Regional Council, is the Montfort Hospital Foundation (which you may remember as the francophone hospital the Mike Harris government hated) he flip flopped on running for mayor because he didn't want to split the right-wing vote, and most interestingly, took part in a Rural Council of Ottawa-Carleton rally at city hall.

The Rural Council is linked to the radical, anti-urban, Randy Hillier-led Lanark Landowners Association. As well, it openly links to sites like Free Dominion, which features an anti-Human Rights Commission splash ad. When McGarry spoke at a city hall rally, he also shared the stage with Tony Walker, an anti-environmental legislation activist, Gerry Kamenz, for Ontario Federation of Agriculture, who delivered a vicious attack on urban Ottawa (of which Ottawa Centre is, and for the record, the OFA opposes animal rights legislation, humane societies, the gun registry, and increasing minimum wage), the radical Rural Revolution (which has at times used near-separatist rhetoric) figure Jack MacLaren, and Bob Broomfield, who compared urban officials to "the KGB or the Gestapo".

So who is the real undertaker? An urbane, pro gay marriage Red Tory, or a rural radical not fit to deal with complex urban issues facing Ottawa Centre? As Ottawa Centre is a two horse race between NDP MP Paul Dewar (or Paul Didn't, as he is called to in circles critical of his lack of interest in real Ottawa Centre issues other than issuing constant press releases in an effort to gain headlines) and the strong and credible Penny Collenette for the Liberals, urban Conservatives should reject the two faced Undertaker, and help Penny move Ottawa Centre forward.

NDP, Conservative, and Liberal views towards Ottawa

http://ottsun.canoe.ca/News/Columnists/Sherring_Susan/2008/01/19/4781792.html

This article gives a good idea of why the Liberals are the best party for Ottawa, both provincially and federally. My current MP, NDP'er Paul Dewar, sticks his head into city business, disrespecting jurisdictional boundaries in crude attempts to win political support and build his profile in a swing riding as he faces a very strong challenge in Penny Collenette.

Dewar...has got into the habit of firing off news releases in matters where his role as a federal representative has no place.

Of course, being a Dipper, Dewar probably believes the federal government should be involved everywhere.

If Dewar cared so much...where was he during the city's budget deliberations late last year when he could have actually made a difference in lobbying council?

Because this would require actual effort and taking a stand for progressive policy for the people of Ottawa, such as how the NDP propped up the Conservatives on the environment issue with the Clean Air Act, as opposed to Penny Collenette's work on the environment (http://www.pennycollenette.ca/_pdf/OttawaCitizen_Waterqualityistickingtimebomb.pdf)

"It looks like he's just jumping on a bandwagon," Coun. Rainer Bloess said, adding there's a difference between speaking out as a citizen and "political grandstanding for the sake of publicity."

A Dipper putting grandstanding and rhetoric ahead of actual hands on policy responsibility? Shocking I tell you.

Dewar's interference can be seen as a a companion to Pierre Poilievre, who as a Conservative MP has a negative reflex reaction to any political body making decisions which aren't triple checked by Ian Brodie.

Coun. Steve Desroches:
"We really don't need these 11th-hour antics,"
(Conservative MPP) MacLeod and Poilievre "should stay out of city business."

Coun. Peter Hume:
"Why is the city being criticized for adhering to provincial and federal regulations?"

Coun. Jan Harder:
"Writes off Poilievre's silliness as immaturity."

On the other hand, former Ottawa mayor and current provincial Liberal minister Jim Watson helps Ottawa keep moving forward by acting "Only when it affects the relationship between city and province. His professionalism should be studied and copied."

Ottawa Centre

So Yasir Naqvi managed to hold on to Ottawa Centre from the NDP, who had this as one of their top targets. What does this mean for the riding federally?

The NDP does own the seat federally, with Paul Dewar being the incumbent. His victory over arch-Martinite Richard Mahoney in 2006 was somewhat of a surprise, as it was thought that Mahoney (who had he been elected would have most certainly been given a high level cabinet post) had only lost to the NDP in 2004 because former leader and living legend Ed Broadbent was the candidate. Let's examine the both the 2000 and 2004 Federal results:

2000:

Liberal
Mac Harb
22,710

New Democrat
Heather-Jane Robertson
13,515

Canadian Alliance
David Brown
10,163

Progressive Conservative
Beverly Mitchell
7,501

Green
Chris Bradshaw
1,529

In 2000, an election which saw Chretien at the height of his power, the Liberals easily held the seat. In 2004:

New Democrat
Ed Broadbent
25,734
41.05%

Liberal
Richard Mahoney
19,478
31.07%


Conservative
Mike Murphy
11,933
19.03


Green
David Chernushenko
4,730
7.54%

A massive surge for the NDP, a drop for the Liberals, and the growth of the Greens are all notable here. Now, making allowances for the drop the Liberals saw overall in this election, and the star candidate make the NDP victory less surprising in retrospect. By 2006 however, the Liberals wanted the seat, and given that Broadbent was not running for re-election, Mahoney was figured by many to have a much easier go. The results though, didn't pan out:

2006:

NDP
Paul Dewar
24,611
36.9%

Liberal
MAHONEY, Richard
19,468
29.2%

Conservative
FOUNTAIN, Keith
15,105
22.7%

Green
CHERNUSHENKO, David
6,765
10.2%

Another NDP victory, although both the NDP and the Liberals appear to have lost some overall percentage to the rising Greens and Conservatives. Something to remember though, the rough breakdown of the votes was 35%-30%-20%-10%.

Lets examine the provincial scene. The incumbent Liberal, Richard Patten, had been around forever, and left in a bit of a huff, (although he still played an active role supporting Yasir's campaign) leaving the riding fairly open. In step 4 youngsters in Yasir Naqvi, Will Murray, Trina Morissette and Greg Laxton to try and win the divided riding, although only Yasir and Will had an actual chance, save for a massive PC lifting. For context, here are the 2003 provincial results:


Liberal
Richard Patten
22,295
45.1


New Democrat
Jeff Atkinson
11,362
23.0


Progressive Conservative
Joe Varner
11,217
22.7


Green
Chris Bradshaw
3,821
7.7


So Richard has a fairly safe seat, and the NDP and PC's battle it out for second. Oddly enough, a glance at the provincial results show that although the PC's never won the seat, they were extremely competitive, coming in under 10% behind in every election from 1967-1981, and after that, finishing well behind the eventual winner, with the exception of 1999, coming in 6% behind.

Now, in between the last provincial election and the 2007 one, the NDP had won the riding fairly convincingly twice, and seen the long-time incumbent MPP leave. Ottawa Centre was probably amongst the top 5 targets for the NDP in this election, and a must win seat if they had wished to hold the balance of power in a minority situation. They focused lots of resources on the seat, with federal MP Paul Dewar showing his face frequently, and numerous visits by Howard Hampton. The Liberals ran a tough campaign, wanting to show the NDP that they didn't own the riding yet. The results are as follows:



Liberal
Yasir Naqvi
18,239
35.0


New Democrat
Will Murray
16,074
30.8


Progressive Conservative
Trina Morissette
10,410
20.0

Green
Greg Laxton
6,438
12.3

So what do we see? My first reaction was that the share of votes for each parties position was nearly the exact same as the previous federal election, with the winner taking 35%, the runner up 30%, (with the actual winner and loser being reversed) and the Conservative and Green votes remaining similar, at 20-ish% and 10-ish percent. Now of course, federal and provincial dynamics are different, but I can draw similarities between Yasir and Paul's victory. Both saw victory despite a decline in overall vote share, both were running to take over from high profile incumbents, and both faced tough fights. Overall, the fact that we were able to run a more effective campaign is what kept the riding Liberal. Will Murray had a potential pool of 40% of the voters who went NDP only 3 years ago, and was only able to get 30%, while Yasir and his team were able to raise the Liberal vote from below 30% to a victory. The victory was certainly a morale raiser, and should help the team manage to get Penny Collenette a very good shot at knocking off Paul Dewar, who didn't seem to help Will Murray much.