Showing posts with label yasir naqvi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label yasir naqvi. Show all posts

Monday, October 31, 2011

Young Liberals serve!



All this food was raised by Ottawa-area Young Liberals as part of the Trick or Eat campaign for the Ottawa Food Bank. Young Liberals from Carleton, U of O, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa-Vanier and beyond came out to help us, and a particular thanks goes out to Yasir Naqvi, MPP for Ottawa Centre for joining us.

Monday, October 15, 2007

Ottawa Centre

So Yasir Naqvi managed to hold on to Ottawa Centre from the NDP, who had this as one of their top targets. What does this mean for the riding federally?

The NDP does own the seat federally, with Paul Dewar being the incumbent. His victory over arch-Martinite Richard Mahoney in 2006 was somewhat of a surprise, as it was thought that Mahoney (who had he been elected would have most certainly been given a high level cabinet post) had only lost to the NDP in 2004 because former leader and living legend Ed Broadbent was the candidate. Let's examine the both the 2000 and 2004 Federal results:

2000:

Liberal
Mac Harb
22,710

New Democrat
Heather-Jane Robertson
13,515

Canadian Alliance
David Brown
10,163

Progressive Conservative
Beverly Mitchell
7,501

Green
Chris Bradshaw
1,529

In 2000, an election which saw Chretien at the height of his power, the Liberals easily held the seat. In 2004:

New Democrat
Ed Broadbent
25,734
41.05%

Liberal
Richard Mahoney
19,478
31.07%


Conservative
Mike Murphy
11,933
19.03


Green
David Chernushenko
4,730
7.54%

A massive surge for the NDP, a drop for the Liberals, and the growth of the Greens are all notable here. Now, making allowances for the drop the Liberals saw overall in this election, and the star candidate make the NDP victory less surprising in retrospect. By 2006 however, the Liberals wanted the seat, and given that Broadbent was not running for re-election, Mahoney was figured by many to have a much easier go. The results though, didn't pan out:

2006:

NDP
Paul Dewar
24,611
36.9%

Liberal
MAHONEY, Richard
19,468
29.2%

Conservative
FOUNTAIN, Keith
15,105
22.7%

Green
CHERNUSHENKO, David
6,765
10.2%

Another NDP victory, although both the NDP and the Liberals appear to have lost some overall percentage to the rising Greens and Conservatives. Something to remember though, the rough breakdown of the votes was 35%-30%-20%-10%.

Lets examine the provincial scene. The incumbent Liberal, Richard Patten, had been around forever, and left in a bit of a huff, (although he still played an active role supporting Yasir's campaign) leaving the riding fairly open. In step 4 youngsters in Yasir Naqvi, Will Murray, Trina Morissette and Greg Laxton to try and win the divided riding, although only Yasir and Will had an actual chance, save for a massive PC lifting. For context, here are the 2003 provincial results:


Liberal
Richard Patten
22,295
45.1


New Democrat
Jeff Atkinson
11,362
23.0


Progressive Conservative
Joe Varner
11,217
22.7


Green
Chris Bradshaw
3,821
7.7


So Richard has a fairly safe seat, and the NDP and PC's battle it out for second. Oddly enough, a glance at the provincial results show that although the PC's never won the seat, they were extremely competitive, coming in under 10% behind in every election from 1967-1981, and after that, finishing well behind the eventual winner, with the exception of 1999, coming in 6% behind.

Now, in between the last provincial election and the 2007 one, the NDP had won the riding fairly convincingly twice, and seen the long-time incumbent MPP leave. Ottawa Centre was probably amongst the top 5 targets for the NDP in this election, and a must win seat if they had wished to hold the balance of power in a minority situation. They focused lots of resources on the seat, with federal MP Paul Dewar showing his face frequently, and numerous visits by Howard Hampton. The Liberals ran a tough campaign, wanting to show the NDP that they didn't own the riding yet. The results are as follows:



Liberal
Yasir Naqvi
18,239
35.0


New Democrat
Will Murray
16,074
30.8


Progressive Conservative
Trina Morissette
10,410
20.0

Green
Greg Laxton
6,438
12.3

So what do we see? My first reaction was that the share of votes for each parties position was nearly the exact same as the previous federal election, with the winner taking 35%, the runner up 30%, (with the actual winner and loser being reversed) and the Conservative and Green votes remaining similar, at 20-ish% and 10-ish percent. Now of course, federal and provincial dynamics are different, but I can draw similarities between Yasir and Paul's victory. Both saw victory despite a decline in overall vote share, both were running to take over from high profile incumbents, and both faced tough fights. Overall, the fact that we were able to run a more effective campaign is what kept the riding Liberal. Will Murray had a potential pool of 40% of the voters who went NDP only 3 years ago, and was only able to get 30%, while Yasir and his team were able to raise the Liberal vote from below 30% to a victory. The victory was certainly a morale raiser, and should help the team manage to get Penny Collenette a very good shot at knocking off Paul Dewar, who didn't seem to help Will Murray much.

Saturday, October 6, 2007

The meaning of signs




I've always been interested in the ways people visually identfy themselves politically. This has brought me to an interest in pins and buttons obviously, but also posters and signs. Having been in a number of different ridings over the course of the election, the differences and similarities between the parties and candidates is very interesting.




Liberals


Charles Sousa-Mississauga South, Yasir Naqvi-Ottawa Centre




Most Liberals don't stray very far from the template, as seen above. Strikes a nice balance between the central party and the candidates individual name, and the candidates personal website. The only candidates who I've noticed have different signs are Ministers like Jim Watson, who I included in the collage above. Jim has had that "re-elect a good MPP" since forever, and was allowed to grandfather it in. Dalton also has a few different designs, seen here: Image and video hosting by TinyPic although he also has plenty of "standard" designs.


I'm assuming Ministers have more choice in choosing a custom sign vs. a standard sign, such as Kathleen Wynne's standard bags: Image and video hosting by TinyPic


compared to George Smitherman's "last name only" signs

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


The template is designed to show both party solidarity, and highlight the individual, which is a good reflection of the Liberal team values.


Progressive Conservatives


Tim Peterson-Mississauga South, Trina Morissette-Ottawa Centre


Now here is a good example of how psychology can effect a candidate and his or her sign choices. Tim Peterson, the floor crosser, has a sign that has little Conservative blue in it, and has that stupid by-line "Your John Tory Candidate" as well as a link to the "leadership matters" campaign website. For Tim at the start of the campaign, this would have made sense. First, avoid using partisan colours as much as possible. In the period in which he was an Independent, Tim largely stuck to a neutral yellow and grey template in his literature, his MPP website, and in this official photo.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


So using a white sign to try and give something of a non-partisan image makes sense. As does the ignoring of everything Tim Peterson related but the actual name on the sign. "John Tory candidate" is because Tim's entire platform is John Tory, and was thought up in the pre-flip flop days when Conservative candidates thought Tory would lead them into to promised land with his leadership on faith-based funding, instead of electoral oblivion. Same goes for the "leadership matters" webpage. For those of you who still doubt the slavish devoution Tim has for all things John Tory, look at this banner outside his campaign office.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

You can't really get a proper scope of size from that photo, but this thing is HUGE. With Peterson headed for defeat at the hands of Mr. Sousa, perhaps he will ponder what could have been had his attendtence record not been so poor, and his floor crossing not so unpopularly recieved.


Trina is a whole different story. Unlike the psedo-incumbant Tim, Trina would never have won her seat, even in a best case scenario, considering Ottawa Centre is a Liberal-NDP battleground. But her sign is all Conservative blue, has her own personal website listed, and none of that "John Tory for insert every riding in province" bull here. She also has the riding listed, which is something that is becoming increasingly rare on political signs.


It is important to note that both Trina and Tim's signs have the PC logo cramed in as small as legally possible, probably to avoid voters connecting the candidates to the Harris days. Shocking, how voters have a tendancy to hold parties responsible for what they did in government.


New Democratic Party

Ken Cole-Mississauga South, Will Murray-Ottawa Centre


I couldn't actually find any online pictures of Ken and Will's signs, but since they both use the same template as shown in the collage, it is not a huge loss. The NDP, more so even than the Liberals, are very focused on consistancy in signs. The only difference in any signs I've seen personally or could find online is that Lynn Hamilton in Ottawa West uses a someone darker shade of orange, and Ric Dagenais in Ottawa Vanier uses a different template, white background with black text and orange and green highlights, which I couldn't find pictures of. Oh, and Ric and Will both have the bi-lingual aspect on the signs, with NDP alongside NPD.


That Ken and Will would use the same design is interesting. The NDP design as is seems to focus much more on the candidate, with the NDP (or NPD) logo cramed into the green highlight. Ken in Mississauga South faces an unwinnable fight, as the NDP has struggled, particularly in the last few decades, to even put in a respectable showing, usually finishing with below 10%. Ken might be better served with the current signs, as the NDP brand is not particularly strong here, and he does have some name exposure from being the perpetual NDP candidate, having run in the last few provincial elections and one recentish federal election for the Dippers.


Will Murray however, is locked in a tight battle with the Liberals, in a seat the NDP already have federally. Given Murray's profile (like all the major candidates, to be frank) is somewhat low, I would have figured Murray would strongly rely on the NDP brand name to help him out in an area that has elected NDP'ers both federally and provincially before. Both signs also fail to mention the individual website, and provide a link to the party one, although the green shadow used on the white text makes it very hard to read the smaller print of the website adress from any sort of reasonable difference. Lynn Hamilton's slightly darker shade of orange makes the website somewhat easier to see.
Greens
David Johnson-Mississauga South, Greg Laxton-Ottawa Centre
Couldn't find any pictures of David's signs, but they are the same template as Greg's. The Green signs are a classic example of placing brand first. The last name of the candidate is large enough to get you to remember it, but the main emphasis is on the colour green, and the word "green" (dunno why they like lowercase so much). This makes sense considering the Green brand rather than the individual candidates are more likely to pick up voters. The Greens further shun individuality by giving the party website, as opposed to the candidate website, and interestingly, follow the PC's in placing the election slogan ("Real Issues. Real Answers") on the signs.





















































































Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Ottawa Centre Debate Review

Got back from the OC debate, and overall it was pretty good and even, no candidate landed a killing blow.

Greg Laxton-Green Party: 6.5/10
Calm, relaxed, and laid back, Greg managed to formulate the Greens eco-capitialist platform in a fairly effective way. He was very focused on staying on message, and had a relaxed pitch while speaking. I didn't think though, that he was really agressive enough. I appreciate his approch, but considering the Greens are positioned to greatly improve opon past elections, and that OC has been a good riding for them in the past, I expected him to be more agressive in defending his positions and attacking others.

Will Murray-NDP: 5/10
Dippers tend to be either passive-agressive, or fire breathing dragons in all candidates debates, and Murray leans more towards the former. Long on rhetoric, and short on workable policies, Murray was smart enough to focus mainly on the Liberals, rather than engage in debates on the impact of Conservative governments past. His agressiveness and reliance on rhetoric was probably based more on wanting to preach to the choir, and I doubt he managed to draw in any more undecided voters.

Yasir Naqvi-Liberal: 7.5/10
As the representitive of the incumbant party both in Queens Park and in OC itself, Yasir took most of the heat on the evening, and although he was largely successful in staying on message and telling his story, the cumulative effect of the 3-on-1 was noticable. Did a good job of rebutting NDP and PC criticisms of the Liberal record by pointing out the short comings of those parties governments.

Trina Morissette-PC: 4/10
Trina's performance was basically the cookie cutter PC platform, short on policy, avoiding any references to the Harris days at all cost, painting John Tory to be a god like genius, and Dalton to be basically the devil. She was the only candidate to get outright heckled, as the audidence at one point "reminded" her on the childcare spending record of the PC government. On the plus side for her, she is getting better and telling her story, and her intro and outro pieces were both fairly solid.

Stuart Ryan-Communist: 1/10
Had a table with various propaganda set up at the start out in the lobby, but didn't show up himself until halfway through the debate, when he pretended to not have been invited to go up on stage, and asked a question from the audience about manufacturing job loss. Apparently pulls this sort of stunt often.

Family Coalition Party candidate Danny Moran and Independent candidate Richard Eveleigh I didn't see, unless they pulled a Ryan and I missed them.

Ottawa Centre Debate Tonight!

All Liberals (and all informed citizens, frankly) should make an effort to show up to the Ottawa Centre debate this evening. It's at 211 Bronson, starting at 7:30. Judging by both the polls, number of signs up, and election predictions, we will hold this riding and keep moving forward, but it's still important to make sure Yasir Naqvi has a strong show of support this evening. Hope to see you all there!