Shaun Carmichael sounds grumpy

http://www.recorder.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=2439007

This article touches on some of the controversy potentially developing coming out of the PC nomination battle in Leeds-Grenville, with establishment candidate Steve Clark winning after Shaun Carmichael, the Ontario Landowners backed candidate, was knocked out of the race by HQ. Carmichael says:

'Not to be a sore loser, but … I'm a little perturbed with the process," Carmichael said in an interview. "If they didn't want me to run, they could have told me Tuesday or Wednesday."

Carmichael said the local PC executive told him he could not hand in memberships at the riding office on Friday. He said he was also not informed that voting would begin at noon Saturday and not 2 p.m. as had been stated on an earlier announcement.

While the PC establishment has this to say:

Ken Zeise, president of the PC party of Ontario, denied that Carmichael's application had been rejected. "He withdrew his application before we had made a decision on it."

Considering that Carmichael seemed to have a campaign team in place, the local Landowner movement supported his campaign, the idea that he just withdrew before the PC Party made a decision (and considering they didn't have a problem with green-lighting the runs of Clark and current Brockville mayor David Henderson real quick), something seems rotten in the state of the PCPO.

Trouble brewing for Tories in Leeds-Grenville?

Steve Clark, the former mayor of Brockville has won the PC nomination for the Leeds-Grenville by-election, but not without controversy. Shawn Carmichael, the Vice-President of the Leeds and Grenville Landowners Association, who had been backed by the Randy Hillier wing of the party, had his nomination papers rejected by the party last night. Many have speculated that Carmichael, or one of his kind, could either run as an independent if the party didn't recognize his candidacy, or force Clark, who had been seen as the "establishment" candidate, into tacking to the right, which could hurt the Tories image elsewhere in the province, particularly as they suffered a crushing blow in Toronto Centre finishing a very distant third. The Ontario Landowners Association has already pledged to run "slate" candidates in municipal elections across rural Ontario, so a Landowner camapaign in Leeds-Grenville wouldn't be the most surprising thing in the world. Let's see how things develop.

Toronto Centre analysis, and looking toward OW-N and Leeds-Grenville

Glen Murray continued the Ontario Liberal winning streak last night, rolling to victory in Toronto Centre. Just as in St. Paul's, the Liberal vote held almost exactly at 2007 levels, with Murray holding on to the broad Liberal base across the riding. The NDP had high hopes with Cathy Crowe, but ultimately fell short, although the 33% of the vote pulled by her represents the best showing by the party in that riding since they nearly won St. George-St. David in 1990.

While the Liberals and NDP both went to sleep feeling fairly good for different reasons, the PC's and Green Party both had rough nights. Pamela Taylor finished a distant third, with the PC vote dropping to 15%, and the Green Party vote, which in recent elections had made Toronto Centre one of the better ridings in the country for them, collapsed, going from 10% in 2007 to 3%, with Stefan Premdas finishing with under 1,000 votes.

Although no one was thinking they would win the riding, the 3rd place finish for the PC's has to be demoralizing going into the next round of by-elections, particularly in the leans Liberal but still swing riding of Ottawa West-Nepean. Taylor's campaign was always going to be an awkward one after trying to promote Mike Harris 2.0 in 2010 after declaring that the PC Party she ran under in 2007 "had nothing to do with Mike Harris", and from what I have heard, her status as a very Red Tory didn't do her any favours, both amongst the general population of the riding, and amongst Progressive Conservatives. A friend of mine who was recently elected to the OPCYA executive told me how after the AGM, which was held in Toronto, the staffers tried to take advantage of an influx of PC youth being in the city to go campaign for Taylor, with little to no success, as the Hudakite Youth wanted little to do with the socially liberal Taylor, denying her the same sort of out of riding volunteer support that the Liberal and NDP campaigns had. And while one would think a Red Tory might be more successful in a riding like Toronto Centre, the lack of independence Taylor was given to campaign also hurt (her website contained no local issues, just a news feed from the PC website). The only time the Taylor campaign picked up any press, it was for her outing of John Baird, whose sexual orientation has long been an open secret in political circles, and was hardly a momentum builder.

The other, perhaps more tangible issue one can see from the failure of the PC campaign is a repeat finding from the St. Paul's by-election, that attempting to turn by-elections into referendums on the HST seems to be a losing strategy. Indeed, a non-partisan consensus seems to be building around the by-election results that the HST just wasn't much of a factor in the vote, with the big issues being the battle of personalities between Glen Murray and Cathy Crowe, with Taylor getting almost totally squeezed out of the picture. When I was out door knocking for Glen, I maybe had a couple voters who expressed anything about the HST at all. The mantra that all politics is local seems to perfectly fit this by-election.

Moving back to the idea that Taylor's status as a Red Tory hurt her campaign thanks to internal divisions within the PC Party, this is something that could come back to hurt the PC's in the next round of by-elections. After losing badly in St. Paul's and Toronto Centre running against the HST, and little else in the way of tactics, some grumbling must be building in PC ranks over if Hudak, who has campaigned against the HST since his election as leader across the province and made it a central part of the PC messaging, cannot deliver the goods electorally. In terms of candidate selection, it will be interesting to see how OW-N goes, with 2007 candidate Mike Patton, who has a Red Tory past, going up against former assistant to Lisa MacLeod, Beth Graham, and who seems to tack more to the right. If Patton, former communications director for Larry O'Brien wins the nomination, could he have the same trouble motivating a grumpy and right-wing PC base that Pam Taylor had?

And in Leeds-Grenville, a crowded Tory race could get interesting, with the powers that be seemingly lining up behind Steve Clark, a former mayor of Brockville and EA to Runciman, who seems to be the establishment candidate in a field that includes current Brockville mayor David Henderson and perhaps most interestingly,
Shawn Carmichael, vice-president of the Leeds and Grenville Landowners Association and a close ally of Randy Hillier, who has endorsed him for the nomination. With the PC party having had two socially liberal by-election candidates in a row under Hudak (Sue Ann Levy and Pam Taylor), another one possibly in Mike Patton, some PC's on the right/Randy Hillier flank of the party could rebel against another "establishment" candidate, a theory put forward by Andrew Steele (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/andrew-steele/runcimans-exit-exposes-hudaks-right-flank/article1449243/)

It is worth noting that in a 1982 by-election, former newspaper editor Neil Reynolds ran as a Libertarian candidate and finished 3rd, getting 13.4% of vote. If Carmichael, the Landowners candidate, is forced out by the party or loses the nomination, could he run as an independent? Or failing that, will the weight of the Landowners force Clark into taking some further-right positions? If it is the latter, the Liberals could jump on this by framing it as part of a Hudak "secret agenda", and use it to campaign in Ottawa West-Nepean. If the PC's don't win Ottawa West-Nepean, a riding they need to win if they wish to form government, murmurs of discontent could definitely start to surface more.

Cuts to Canadian Federation for Sexual Health show Harper can't be trusted with maternal health

As a Liberal, and a member of the Pro-Choice Coalition of Ottawa, I am very pleased to see Michael Ignatieff take a stand for choice by pressuring the Prime Minister on the issue of maternal health at the G8.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/bureau-blog/include-abortion-in-maternal-health-pledge-michael-ignatieff-tells-pm/article1453666/

"We want to make sure that women have access to all the contraceptive methods available to control their fertility because we don’t want to have women dying because of botched procedures, we don’t want to have women dying in misery.”

In the face of moves like this, it is crucial to keep the pressure up on the Harper social conservative agenda:

http://www.theinterim.com/features/ottawa-cuts-funding-for-cfsh/

An Interim investigation has found that over the past half decade, the Canadian Federation for Sexual Health has had its federal government grants cut by more than 99 per cent.
The federation, formerly the Planned Parenthood Federation of Canada and still the Canadian member of the International Planned Parenthood Federation, has charitable status, according to the Canada Revenue Agency. The CFSH says on its website that it “promote(s) sexual and reproductive health and rights in Canada and abroad.” It also admits being a “pro-choice organization.”

And just in case Harper's piano-playing ways have made anyone forget his real secret agenda, lets let his caucus speak for him:
http://www.liberal.ca/en/newsroom/media-releases/17427_liberals-ask-harper-to-keep-ideology-out-of-maternal-health-initiative

October 2009 - Brad Trost, Conservative MP, Saskatoon-Humboldt launches a Petition to Stop Federal Funding of Planned Parenthood:“Mr. Speaker, it is my pleasure to present in the House today petitions... They are calling upon this House to promote the values they cherish, which are Canadian values in support of pre-born life. They are particularly calling upon the Government of Canada to stop the funding of Planned Parenthood by CIDA, the Canadian International Development Agency, believing that CIDA should be concentrating on dealing with fighting poverty instead of concentrating on destroying human life.” (MP Brad Trost, Hansard, October 5, 2009)

“In Trost's opinion, the government has continued funding IPPF (International Planned Parenthood Federation) because of ‘inertia.’ ‘The bureaucracy's done it before and no one wants to rock the boat,’ he explained. ‘... I'm encouraging people to let their voice be spoken so that the unelected government, i.e. the bureaucrats in CIDA who support Planned Parenthood, don't get to dictate where people's tax dollars go.’ He is encouraging people to write the Prime Minister and CIDA's Minister, Bev Oda. He would like those who write ‘not only to oppose it because abortion is wrong, period, but also because there's other better ways to spend ... Canadian international development aid money.” (Lifesitenews.com, November 2, 2009)

“[Conservative MP Brad Trost] presented a petition in the House calling for CIDA to stop funding IPPF saying it ‘promotes the establishment of abortion as an international human right and lobbies aggressively to impose permissive abortion laws on developing nations.’” (Saskatoon Leader Post, November 4, 2009)

Maurice Vellacott, Conservative MP, Saskatoon – Wanuskewin:“Saskatoon's doctors should be commended for the leadership they are showing by reducing the availability of abortion in our city and for supporting real alternatives for women in need.” (MP Maurice Vellacott, “Outspoken MP Slams Canada’s ‘Abortion Regime,’ LifeSiteNews.com, November 27, 2009)

“[MP Maurice Vellacott] says pro-life feminists view abortion as ‘part of a male agenda to have women more sexually available,’ and adds abortion has been used to cover up the sexual abuse of young girls.” (Saskatoon Star Phoenix, November 24, 2009)

Stockwell Day, Conservative MP, Okanagan Coquihalla:“The thinking is, if you can cut a child to pieces or burn them alive with salt solution while they're still in the womb, what's wrong with knocking them around a little when they're outside the womb?” (MP Stockwell Day arguing in 1988 that abortion leads to child abuse, Edmonton Journal, March 10, 2000).

Jim Flaherty, Conservative MP , Whitby-Oshawa:“On abortion services he [Jim Flaherty] said, ‘I would not change that status quo. Would I expand it? No. . . . I would not authorize the creation of any more clinics.’” (LifeSite Daily News, February 11, 2002)

Jason Kenney, Conservative MP, Calgary Southeast:“Mr. Harper’s Immigration Minister Jason Kenney has compared abortion to child abuse and slavery, saying that if politicians refuse to take a political stand against abortion, people should ‘ask them if they're personally opposed to child abuse, ask them if they're personally opposed to slavery.’” (Canadian Catholic News, May 24, 2004)

Cheryl Gallant, Conservative MP, Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke:"We saw that young American (in Iraq) have his head literally cut off in front of the cameras, but what's happening down there is absolutely no different!" (MP Cheryl Gallant referring to an abortion clinic, CBC, May 13, 2004)

Garry Breitkreuz, Conservative MP, Yorkton Melville:Mr. Breitkreuz introduced Private Members Bill M-83 in the House of Commons: “That the Standing Committee on Health fully examine, study and report to Parliament on: (a) whether or not abortions are medically necessary for the purpose of maintaining health, preventing disease or diagnosing or treating an injury, illness or disability; and (b) the health risks for women undergoing abortions compared to women carrying their babies to full term.” (Private Member’s Business, voted on October 1, 2003)

“Since sending me to Ottawa in 1993, I’ve been working on two issues vital to the vast majority of my constituents – democratic reform and rights for the unborn.” (MP Garry Breitkreuz News Release, March 31, 2003)

“In 1996, Breitkreuz called for a national referendum on tax-funding for abortions.” (MP Garry Breitkreuz News Release, March 14, 1996)

Gary Goodyear, Conservative MP, Cambridge:“‘I always have hope, I'll never give up hope,’ Goodyear added after calling on anti-abortion groups to continue striving for a new law.” (The Standard, May 12, 2006)

"I'm pro-life and that's the answer to the question." (MP Gary Goodyear, Cambridge Times Friday, June 11, 2004)

Rob Nicholson, Conservative MP, Niagara Falls:“When this issue was before the House the last time I voted against the bill. I could not in good conscience give approval to something that I have always fought against in my life. I have fought for the protection of unborn children and I fought against the abortion law that was in place in Canada for many years.” (MP Rob Nicholson, Hansard, May 23, 1990)

Vic Toews, Conservative MP, Provencher:“Vic Toews told the National Pro-Life Conference on Sept. 8, 2004, in a speech entitled ‘Abuse of the Charter by the Supreme Court,’ that the right to abortion is a result of ‘activist judges’ abusing the Charter of Rights and Freedoms to develop and implement their own social policy... ‘Do not look at the issue of abortion as an issue that stands alone... this issue has a much broader significance in areas related to the policy of government concerning marriage, the family, and the response of government to social problems generally.’ (Abortion Rights Coalition of Canada, http://www.arcc-cdac.ca/action/conservative-danger.html)

With a government that has vocal anti-choicers in the critical positions of the Minister of Justice, Minister of State for Science, Minister of Finance, Minister of Immigration, President of Treasury Board, Minister of Public Safety and others, I applaud Michael Ignatieff for standing up for choice.

NDP infighting in Toronto Centre?

While I was out canvassing for Glen Murray on the weekend, I saw an interesting piece of NDP lit a few times. It was standard anti-HST rhetoric, claiming that with the costs of living rising, the HST was bad for lower income voters (never mind the historic lower income tax cuts the NDP voted against), and one of the things it claimed was going up, which would be hurting lower income voters? TTC fare hikes. Never mind that the province has no responsibility over the price of TTC fares, so Crowe is shamelessly hoping to fool voters with base populism, but just who would be responsible for said TTC fair hikes? Former federal NDP president, current TTC chair, and newly declared Toronto mayoral candidate Adam Giambrone. With Giambrone looking to beat former Toronto Centre MPP George Smitherman for mayor, getting attacked from the left for making life harder for lower income voters can't help, and shows that the Team Orange supporters in downtown Toronto don't seem to be working all on the same page right now.

Prentice and Tories have head in the sand on climate issues

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/page/view/prentice-02-01-2010

With reports coming out of the Davos conference that Canada's voice at the meeting is being widely ignored after the Conservative government's shameful performance at the Copenhagen climate talks, news that Environment Minister Jim Prentice has shut environmental groups out of the process come as no surprise. When Prentice replaced political pitbull John Baird as Environment Minister, some in the environmental movement hoped that the appointment of Prentice, generally seen as one of the Harper governments more skilled and less partisan ministers was a sign that after the days of Baird being used to "neutralize" the issue of climate change, and that the government was serious about the issue. However, this is not a sign of a government that takes the issue seriously:

A search of Canada's Lobbyists Registry revealed that Environment Minister Jim Prentice met with some nine times as often with lobbyists from the oil, energy and other industry sectors than with environmental interest groups.

Energy producers are obviously important stakeholders in discussions on environmental policy, and they play a vital role in our economy, but to let one side of the issue shape the policy agenda so totally is an abdication of responsibility on the part of Jim Prentice. Perhaps this section gets more to the root of the issue:

"The dirty little secret about this government is that its relations with the bureaucracy are very, very poor, and particularly with the policy side of the bureaucracy. It doesn't trust it, and it doesn't trust the options and the policy prescriptions its being given," he said. "There really is an imperative for them to reach out to players in the private sector for expertise, for policy help, for analysis because of the fundamental distrust it has with the bureaucracy."

In other words, confirming once again that this government views the public service not as a non-partisan tool to help implement policy and agenda set, but as a group of villains, to be distrusted as long as they don't hold a Tory membership card. The Conservative government is letting Canadians down once again with this abuse of power and willful ignorance of the crucial role fighting climate change will play in the 21st century.

Contested Tory nomination for Ottawa West-Nepean

While Bob Chiarelli secured the Grit nomination for the upcoming by-election this weekend, the Tories will have a contested nomination, with Beth Graham entering the race. Graham was President Leslie Park Community Association and the Nepean Federation of Community Associations and worked for Lisa MacLeod, MPP for the next door riding of Nepean-Carleton, for almost three years. We'll see if Beth can be the third consecutive female by-election candidate for the PC's.