9 Political Predictions for 2009

1. John Tory's days as Ontario PC leader are in the very low numbers, and will not survive past the end of the spring sitting of the Queen's Park.

2. The contenters for Ontario PC leadership will be Tim Hudak, Michael Chong, and Lisa Macleod.

3. Peter Tabuns will narrowly defeat Micheal Prue for Ontario NDP leadership.

4. Rodney MacDonald's minority PC government in Nova Scotia will fall, and be defeated by the NDP.

5. The NDP will defeat the BC Liberals in the BC provincial election.

6. Gilles Duceppe will step down as BQ leader, Pierre Paquette will take over the leadership.

7. The coalition will not be asked to take power, but it will not be formally disbanded either.

8. Elizabeth May will be forced out as Green leader.

9. No federal election in 2009.

"Premier Dad" strikes again

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/081221/national/farewell_cheap_suds

McGuinty already caused some grumblings within the OYL ranks with his proposed driving legislation, and raising the price of beer for reasons of "social responsibility" makes me think the OYL will have an increasingly hard time reaching out to youth by promoting the Ontario Liberals as a party that takes them seriously. Something the OYL has tried recently has been to promote itself as a real youth-centric organization, with an activist spirit, but it is hard to recruit new young members and supporters with the rally cries of driving restrictions and more expensive booze.

Harper's economic leadership

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/12/18/deficits.html

That about sums it up.

Good on Charest

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081218.wcharest1218/BNStory/National

For his second straight ministry, Charest has implemented a gender equitable cabinent, including having women in the important positions of Finance Minister, Deputy Premier, Treasury Board President, Justice Minister, and several others. Charest and the PLQ had plenty of female candidates with heavy use of a quota system or leader appointments, and the federal Liberals can learn from this.

For example, lets look at our current frontbench critcs. Women are critics for only 9 portfolios, and out of the high-profile critic positions like Finance, Defense, Foreign Affairs, Industry, Environment, Justice, etc, a grand total of 0 are held by female MP's. Only Carolyn Bennett in Health, Ruby Dhalla in Labour, and Judy Sgro in National Revenue have somewhat important positions, and for a party while claims to promote women in politics, this needs to change. We cannot mirror the Conservatives who appoint (albeit in this new ministry a record number of) women to middling positions. Copying this and downplaying the role of women in politics is no way to win back voters of all genders who have abandoned the Liberal Party recently.

I for one welcome our new Iggy overlords

I believe the events of the last 48 hours is probably the best outcome that could have been salvaged out of the situation. We have a leader with caucus support, wh0 will be secure in the job for quite some time. Is the way the situation resolved perfect? No, of course not. But we as a party have to make due with what we have, and move forward together. The constitutional, procedural thing was done. Those who talking about the grassroots being disenfranchised do have a valid point, however, and I believe one of Iggy's top priorities should be to re-engage with the grassroots, opening up any new policy process. I believe Rae's suggestion of utilizing our online resources here would be valuable.

The Big Lebowski

Pauline Marois may use slightly more eloquent language in her speech tonight, but with the PQ performing well above the poll predictions, and keep Charest to a very slim majority (the night is young enough to even keep him to minority) this famous quote from The Big Lebowski will sum up her feelings towards Stephen Harper and his Quebec baiting/bashing, which most commentators tonight are citing as a significant factor in the PQ's surprising result, when almost everyone had the PLQ at a comfortable 70ish seat majority, as opposed to the narrow majority he will get. Harper and the Conservative/ADQ stock is collapsing in Quebec, and the federal Liberals need to pounce on this weakness.

Coalition Fantasy Pool?

Here are my picks:

Prime Minister: Stephane Dion, Saint Laurent-Cartierville, Liberal, Montreal
Minister of Agriculture and Minister for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency: Wayne Easter, Malpeque, Liberal, PEI
Minister of Canadian Heritage and Official Languages: Marlene Jennings, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Lachine, Liberal, Montreal
Minister of Citizenship and Immigration: Navdeep Bains, Mississauga-Brampton South, Liberal, GTA
Minister of the Environment and Western Economic Diversification: Linda Duncan, Edmonton-Strathcona, NDP, Alberta
Minister of Finance: Ralph Goodale, Wascana, Liberal, Saskatchewan
Minister of Fisheries and Oceans: Siobhan Coady, St. John’s South-Mount Pearl, Liberal, Newfoundland
Minister of Foreign Affairs: Jack Layton, Toronto-Danforth, NDP, GTA
Minister of Health: Ujjal Dosanjh, Vancouver South, Liberal, BC
Minister of Human Resources and Social Development: Gerard Kennedy, Parkdale-High Park, Liberal, Toronto
Minister of Indian Affairs: Anita Neville, Winnipeg South, Liberal, Manitoba
Secretary of State for Northern Development: Larry Bagnell, Yukon, Liberal, North
Minister of Industry: Scott Brison, Kings-Hants, Liberal, Nova Scotia
Minister of International Trade: David McGuinty, Ottawa South, Liberal, Eastern Ontario
Minister of International Cooperation, Minister of State: Pacific Gateway, Sport, 2010 Olympics: Hedy Fry, Vancouver Centre, Liberal, BC
Minister of Justice: Irwin Cotler, Mont Royal, Liberal, Montreal
Minister of Labour: Libby Davies, Vancouver East, NDP, BC
Minister of National Defense and Vet Affairs: Denis Coderre, Bourassa, Liberal, Montreal
Minister of National Revenue: John McCallum, Markham-Unionville, Liberal, GTA
Minister of Natural Resources and FEDNOR: Anthony Rota, Nipissing—Timiskaming, Liberal, Northern Ontario
Minister of Public Safety: Thomas Mulcair, Outremont, NDP, Montreal
Minister of Public Works and Government Services: Brian Murphy, Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe, New Brunswick, Liberal
Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs: Mark Holland, Ajax-Pickering, Liberal, GTA
Minister of Transport: Joe Comartin, Windsor—Tecumseh, Southern Ontario, NDP
Minister of State (Economic Development Agency of Canada for the Regions of Quebec): Alexandra Mendes, Brossard—La Prairie, Liberal, Montérégie
President of the Treasury Board: Maurizio Bevilacqua, Vaughn, Liberal, GTA
Secretary of State for Democratic Reform and Government House Leader: Carolyn Bennett, St. Paul’s, Liberal, GTA
Secretary of State for Multiculturalism: Ruby Dhalla, Brampton-Springdale, Liberal, GTA
Secretary of State for Women’s Issues: Judy Wasylycia-Leis, Winnipeg North, NDP Manitoba


Total: 29 (including a few Secs of State)

NDP: 7
Liberals: 22

Women: 9

Newfoundland: 1
Nova Scotia: 1
PEI: 1
Nova Scotia: 1
Quebec: 6
Ontario: 11
Manitoba: 2
Saskatchewan: 1
Alberta: 1
BC: 3
North: 1