Thursday, January 3, 2008

Reviewing my Iowa predictions

Overall, I think I did decently.

-Overall, Huckabee wins by about 2-3% over Romney

I was right about Huckabee winning with Romney in 2nd, but the predicted razor-thin race failed to materialize, with Huckabee winning by a more comfortable 9%.

-McCain finishes a fairly strong third, given he is more focused on New Hampshire right now. I'd peg him in the mid-teens, anywhere from 14-17%

McCain ended up finishing in 4th, with 13%, just a little bit behind Thompson. I very slightly overestimated his support, but I'll say I was accurate enough on this one.

-Fred Thompson crashes and burns, barely breaking 10%

I was sorta wrong on this one, his supporters managed to get him the bronze medal, which should keep him relevant enough to still be a potential factor in New Hampshire.

-Duncan Hunter drops out after getting less than 2-3%

Hunter only got 1%, so I got that right, but says he has no plans to drop out

-Ron Paul gets higher support than polls indicate, finishing above Rudy and possibly Thompson

Overall a very decent night for Ron Paul, getting 10% of the vote, well above Rudy, who only got 4% (I had him pegged slightly higher) but although he failed to pull off the real upset of finishing in 3rd, should give him momentum going into New Hampshire, where Republican voters have somewhat of a libertarian, anti-establishment streak, and could play serious spoiler by drawing votes from other camps.


-Obama wins by 4-5% over Clinton, who barely beats Edwards into 2nd

I was right about Obama winning, and my margin of victory wasn't too far off, but I was pretty surprised at Clinton finishing in third place, which is a major body blow to her campaign.

-Bill Richardson does slightly better than expected, but still a distant 4th

Richardson performed very poorly, with 2% of the vote. I got the 4th place right, but this is a big blow to a guy who deserves to poll better.

-Chris Dodd drops out

I was right about this one, as Dodd had his whole campaign in Iowa, even moving his family, but I didn't predict Biden, who I think was more running for Secretary of State. Interesting to see who they endorse, if anyone.

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