Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Iowa caucus

Well, voters in Iowa today will play a crucial role in determining who will be the next Presidential nomines for each party, with both races within the margin of error. I will boldly make some predictions for how things turn out:
-Overall, Huckabee wins by about 2-3% over Romney
-McCain finishes a fairly strong third, given he is more focused on New Hampshire right now. I'd peg him in the mid-teens, anywhere from 14-17%
-Fred Thompson crashes and burns, barely breaking 10%
-Duncan Hunter drops out after scoring below 2-3%
-Ron Paul has an increase in support from the polls and finishes ahead of Giuliani, and possibly Thompson
-Obama wins by 4-5% over Clinton, who barely beats Edwards into 2nd
-Bill Richardson does slightly better than expected, but still a distant 4th
-Chris Dodd drops out
I'll post tomorrow and see how right/wrong I was

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Last time John Kerry won in part because of his get out the vote machine, which was considered to be excellent. He had 400 official volunteer drivers to get people to the polls. Guess how many Clinton has this time? 5000! That's not a typo, not 500, 5000. She can drive every single one of her caucus goers to the polls. Every one. Never in history, and I think I can say that with some assurance has a candidate had so many drivers on polling day that they could drive every single voter to the polls. It is awe inspiring. Obama's youth vote will not be able to compete with 5000 drivers bringing every older voter they can find to the polls. I Couldn't even believe it yesterday. It's unbelievable. Truely amazing. No one has ever even come close to this level of organizing to get out the vote, ever, anywhere on the planet. Gobstopping.

Clinton will win, Obama may even come in third. That's my prediction.