Uneven night, prediction wise

I was accurate about the Republicans, but blindsided by the Democrats.


"Democrats
-Obama wins by around 8-9% over Clinton
-Edwards finishes a relatively distant third, not breaking 20%
-Richardson performs poorly, but manages to hang on to 4th spot, as Dennis Kucinich has a minor bounce
-No one will drop out"

Obviously I got the most important prediction wrong, although to my credit most polls and pundits had Obama winning. Clinton managed to win support with women that she didn't get in Iowa, probably due in large part to the large turn out of older women, who tend to be Clinton loyalists. Age and experience beat youth and change, for now, at least. I was right about Edwards doing poorly, but Richardson failed to really collapse, and Kucinich had no real bounce.



"Republicans
-McCain wins by 4-5% over Romney
-Huckabee finishes in third in the low teens, which for him is ok, as he didn't really focus on this state as it lacks the same kind of evangelical social conservatives that Iowa has
-Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani battle for 4th, with Giuliani looking to avoid another embarrassingly low result like in Iowa, just to give his "ignore the early states" plan some credibility
-Fred Thompson stays in the low single digits, as does Duncan Hunter
-No one drops out"

I at least managed to get the Republicans basically all right, although I thought Huckabee would do slightly better than 11%.

This result further muddles the waters of the races, and I don't think either party has a clear frontrunner at this point.

New Hampshire Predictions

After my relatively successful Iowa predictions, I'm going to take a crack at New Hampshire. I'm kinda depressed that New Hampshire looks to be pretty much decided, Iowa was so much fun because you didn't know how things will break down

Democrats

-Obama wins by around 8-9% over Clinton

-Edwards finishes a relatively distant third, not breaking 20%

-Richardson performs poorly, but manages to hang on to 4th spot, as Dennis Kucinich has a minor bounce

-No one will drop out

Republicans

-McCain wins by 4-5% over Romney

-Huckabee finishes in third in the low teens, which for him is ok, as he didn't really focus on this state as it lacks the same kind of evangelical social conservatives that Iowa has

-Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani battle for 4th, with Giuliani looking to avoid another embarrassingly low result like in Iowa, just to give his "ignore the early states" plan some credibility

-Fred Thompson stays in the low single digits, as does Duncan Hunter

-No one drops out

Republicans

We'll see how right I am later.

Cabbagetown Canvassing pics

MacKay's Iran fear mongering doesn't hold up to facts

Peter MacKay dropped a lovely Christmas present on Canadians when on Christmas day he said that:

""We're very concerned that weapons are coming in from Iran, we're very concerned these weapons are going to the insurgents and keeping this issue alive."

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20071225/hillier_afghanistan_071225?s_name=&no_ads=

This attempt to link the Taliban to the Iranian government surprised many, as anyone who knows anything about the religious geo-politics (and one would hope a Foreign Affairs Minister turned Defense Minister during wartime would) that the Taliban and the Iranian government have a very poor relationship, almost going to war before 9/11. MacKay was both trying to help out his buddy the American ambassador, whose government was quite embarrassed by the intel report showing Iran had halted its nuke program years ago, and score some points on the domestic front, as most uninvolved Canadians would readily believe that two particularly nasty groups of Islamic fundamentalists would work together.

However, MacKay's beating of the war drum is somewhat out of tune with reality:

"There is no evidence the Iranian government is behind the export of weapons that end up in the hands of Taliban fighters"

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080103/iran_ieds_080103/20080104?hub=TopStories

While the article rightly points out that weapons are coming from Iran, and all parties involved have a vested interest in a secure Iranian-Afghan border, this shows that MacKay and the Conservatives have little real interest in the troops and the Afghan mission beyond how useful they can be used to score points at home or curry favour with the Bush administration. We as Liberals, who believe in a progressive and independent foreign policy can never forget to remind Canadians that the Conservatives would prefer Canada had taken part in the Iraq quagmire, and if the Bush administration in its dying months does anything as foolish as attack Iran, that you can expect Harper, Bernier, and MacKay to be ready to say "Aye, Ready, Aye".

I'll be canvassing for Bob Rae today, so hopefully I can get a reminder of what clear-viewed foreign policy looks like.

Reviewing my Iowa predictions

Overall, I think I did decently.

Republicans:

-Overall, Huckabee wins by about 2-3% over Romney

I was right about Huckabee winning with Romney in 2nd, but the predicted razor-thin race failed to materialize, with Huckabee winning by a more comfortable 9%.

-McCain finishes a fairly strong third, given he is more focused on New Hampshire right now. I'd peg him in the mid-teens, anywhere from 14-17%

McCain ended up finishing in 4th, with 13%, just a little bit behind Thompson. I very slightly overestimated his support, but I'll say I was accurate enough on this one.

-Fred Thompson crashes and burns, barely breaking 10%

I was sorta wrong on this one, his supporters managed to get him the bronze medal, which should keep him relevant enough to still be a potential factor in New Hampshire.

-Duncan Hunter drops out after getting less than 2-3%

Hunter only got 1%, so I got that right, but says he has no plans to drop out

-Ron Paul gets higher support than polls indicate, finishing above Rudy and possibly Thompson

Overall a very decent night for Ron Paul, getting 10% of the vote, well above Rudy, who only got 4% (I had him pegged slightly higher) but although he failed to pull off the real upset of finishing in 3rd, should give him momentum going into New Hampshire, where Republican voters have somewhat of a libertarian, anti-establishment streak, and could play serious spoiler by drawing votes from other camps.

Democrats

-Obama wins by 4-5% over Clinton, who barely beats Edwards into 2nd

I was right about Obama winning, and my margin of victory wasn't too far off, but I was pretty surprised at Clinton finishing in third place, which is a major body blow to her campaign.

-Bill Richardson does slightly better than expected, but still a distant 4th

Richardson performed very poorly, with 2% of the vote. I got the 4th place right, but this is a big blow to a guy who deserves to poll better.

-Chris Dodd drops out

I was right about this one, as Dodd had his whole campaign in Iowa, even moving his family, but I didn't predict Biden, who I think was more running for Secretary of State. Interesting to see who they endorse, if anyone.

Because obviously my blog is critical to the process

If for some bizarre reason Iowa voters stumble across my blog in the next hour, I urge them to support Barack Obama. I believe that he would be the most electable, and the candidate with the best policies. I have long described myself as a "centrist progressive", and Obama is the best candidate for people of my viewpoint, discarding the cold, calculating "establishment" supported Clinton, and the overly union friendly, worryingly populist John Edwards, who has re-dressed himself as the candidate of the left of the Democrats.

Obama's emphasis on progressive change with workable, pragmatic policies, as well as his relative popularity among Republicans, makes him the best candidate for the Democratic Party in 2008.

Iowa caucus

Well, voters in Iowa today will play a crucial role in determining who will be the next Presidential nomines for each party, with both races within the margin of error. I will boldly make some predictions for how things turn out:

Republicans:

-Overall, Huckabee wins by about 2-3% over Romney

-McCain finishes a fairly strong third, given he is more focused on New Hampshire right now. I'd peg him in the mid-teens, anywhere from 14-17%

-Fred Thompson crashes and burns, barely breaking 10%

-Duncan Hunter drops out after scoring below 2-3%

-Ron Paul has an increase in support from the polls and finishes ahead of Giuliani, and possibly Thompson

Democrats

-Obama wins by 4-5% over Clinton, who barely beats Edwards into 2nd

-Bill Richardson does slightly better than expected, but still a distant 4th

-Chris Dodd drops out

I'll post tomorrow and see how right/wrong I was