Thursday, March 5, 2009

HKLB Liveblog

11:30-Dunno if anyone is covering this live, so I am gonna sign off, congradulations to Rick Johnson!

11:22-258 of 258. Rick Johnson wins with 15, 483/43.72, John Tory with 14,576/41.17, Mike Schreiner with 2,352/6.64, and Lyn Edwards with 2,117/5.98.

11:10-I'm trying to find somewhere that has live coverage, CTV, Global, and City have all switched to other stories.

11:03-Global was referring to Tory's leadership in the past tense.

11:01-City News has live coverage, saying "the party is now in disarry".

11:00-Lets see how the late news handles Tory's loss.

10:57-Just clearing up the dregs now, 253 of 258, 43.73-41.17. A few people have guessed Christine Elliot as PC leader.

10:50-Oh, and we are now at 248 of 258. 43.80-41.06-6.68-5.99 is the breakdown for the major parties.

10:48- Any guesses for next PC leader?

10:47-Toronto Star says that Tory has lost.

10:44-Facebook tells me Tory has conceeded, 243 of 258, Johnson up 43.78-41.07, Greens looks like they will finish third.

10:43- Pretty much every media source is calling a Liberal victory at this point.

10:36- The Lindsay Post is describing a Liberal victory as "near certain".

10:32-239 of 258 in now, Johnson still up by 3%. Unless the remaining polls are entirely Tory, I am going to proclaim Johnson the winner of HKLB, and Tory to resign within days, if not tonight.
10:26-Independent Taylor nears the 1% mark, with 0.95.

10:21- This is real bad for Tory. 229 of 258, and the gap was widened to 3%.

10:17- Does anyone know what the rules are for how close a provincial election has to be for it to be a recount?

10:15-191 of 258 in now, 43.77 to 41.20. NDP narrowly in 4th.

10:13-Jason Taylor, the independent, is at 0.82, wonder if he will break 1%? Given that his motivation for entering the race was anger at Tory parachuting in, and that this election looks close, he could play a larger role then he votes indicate.

10:08-This result is not exactly what many (including myself) expected. 65% of polls reporting, Johnson up 10,402-9,812. If Tory doesn't win, he resigns tonight.

10:02-149 of 258, Johnson with a 2% lead!

10:00: Edited so most recent postings go at the top.

9:59: With roughly half the polls reporting, I wish I was in HKLB right now.

9:56: 130 of 258 in now, Johnson continues to lead. 8,220-8,024.

9:51: Wow. 107 of 258 in, and Johnson has re-taken the lead. 6,851-6,809. Now, the more densely populated areas of the riding would probably be more Liberal friendly, and report earlier, but still, this is not looking good for Tory. Greens still up on the NDP, none of the minor candidates are above 1%

9:47: The Greens are still narrowly leading the NDP, on the eve of their leadership convention, a 4th place finish would be a real kick in the teeth.

9:44: 65 polls in now, the PC's must be feeling pretty nervous, as Johnson again closes the gap, 3,917 for Johnson, 3,967 for Tory, or 43.62-43.07. As I wrote in my earlier blogs, Tory can't just win HKLB to silence discontent, he has to win decisively, and with a quarter of the poll results in, an almost tie would definately keep Tory in hot water.

9:37-So it is, Johnson closes the gap further, 883-839 with 30 polls in. Greens have pulled ahead of the NDP, 120-113.

9:36-I have been told via facebook that the website doesn't lie, and it updates on the 2 and the 7, lets see if that holds up.

9:32-Results are starting to pour in now, 19 polls, and Johnson has cut into Tory's lead, 479-437, or 44%-40%. The NDP and Green candidate are nearly tied, at 72-66.
9:28-Despite the lie of the website, 8 polls are now in, and Tory is up on Johnson 102-88.

9:24-I am growing somewhat skeptical of the Elections Ontario website claim that result are updated ever 5 minutes.9:15-Rick Johnson wins....at least the first poll reporting, with 23 votes to Tory's 11, with 2 for the NDP, 1 for the Green, and 1 for Jason Taylor.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I hope Tory wins. If he wins it guarantees a Liberal victory in 2011.

Erik said...

Wow! This is close. 30% of polls reporting and only 2% spread between Tory and the Liberal

Anonymous said...

here's the recount procedure during a close result:


http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=loi&document=jud_p2&dir=jud&lang=e&anchor=p2.2.1&textonly=false#p2.2.1