John Tory on the HST: "good economic and tax policy if we want to create jobs in the province of Ontario"

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/936390--tory-praises-mcguinty-s-courage-on-the-hst?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

And this quote from McGuinty brings it home:

“I’m absolutely convinced that the PCs in fact are supportive of the HST. They were always there and they always have been,” said McGuinty, shrugging off Hudak’s public opposition to the tax.

“In fact, we would not have been able to move forward with the HST in Ontario without the support of many Ontario PCs, whether you’re taking John Baird or Tony Clement … or Jim Flaherty,” he said, referring to former Tory MPPs who are now top members of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative cabinet.

Leadership on the economy and job creation helps Ontario families more than buck a beer.

Tim Hudak's first piece of real policy: Faith based funding part 2

Check out my video for the Positive Politics Challenge here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MevlKbbGzdM
_____________________________________________________________________

Tim Hudak is taking a page out of Randy Hillier's book, by declaring he would eliminating Human Rights Tribunals. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090515.wPOLonttory16/BNStory/politics/home

I'll be frank with one of my personal views first before taking a closer look at the implications of this. I do believe that HRT's have, in recent years, been somewhat overreaching in scope. However, I do believe that they can play an important role in ensuring the rights of all Ontarians, and that reform of the Tribunals is needed, not haphazard elimination of them.

More importantly, I believe that this being Hudak's first real policy declaration establishes an important part of his campaign and his persona as a potential leader. Despite the economy being issue number 1, Hudak joins Frank Klees and Randy Hillier in being more focused in playing identity politics and trying to paint rural white males as victims to try and win votes. I may disagree with Christine Elliot's flat tax, but in fair game to her, she is the only candidate who has attempted to make the economy part of her policy vision and platform. Hudak's only economic principle has been the flip-flop on the harmonized sales tax. He, like most provincial Conservatives, supported a harmonized sales tax, encouraged by Jim Flaherty, right up until the day of the last budget. Hudak is childishly calling it the Dalton Sales Tax, without presenting any real economic policies. The PC party under Tim Hudak would be more interested in dividing Ontarians with controversial social policy that a PC insider says:


“I think they're going to look at this and say, ‘you're pulling another John Tory move. You picked a hot-button issue that's going to blow up in our faces just as the school thing did,'”

Tim Hudak and the PC's right now have increasingly little economic credibility, and are rapidly becoming the party of No: No to the Green Energy Act and a clean, renewable future, No to any plans to help Ontario families get out of the recession, No to rejecting divisive politics in a time of troubles. Ontario needs to say NO to divide and conquer politicking, and YES to real economic recovery.

HKLB Liveblog

11:30-Dunno if anyone is covering this live, so I am gonna sign off, congradulations to Rick Johnson!

11:22-258 of 258. Rick Johnson wins with 15, 483/43.72, John Tory with 14,576/41.17, Mike Schreiner with 2,352/6.64, and Lyn Edwards with 2,117/5.98.

11:10-I'm trying to find somewhere that has live coverage, CTV, Global, and City have all switched to other stories.

11:03-Global was referring to Tory's leadership in the past tense.

11:01-City News has live coverage, saying "the party is now in disarry".

11:00-Lets see how the late news handles Tory's loss.

10:57-Just clearing up the dregs now, 253 of 258, 43.73-41.17. A few people have guessed Christine Elliot as PC leader.

10:50-Oh, and we are now at 248 of 258. 43.80-41.06-6.68-5.99 is the breakdown for the major parties.

10:48- Any guesses for next PC leader?

10:47-Toronto Star says that Tory has lost.

10:44-Facebook tells me Tory has conceeded, 243 of 258, Johnson up 43.78-41.07, Greens looks like they will finish third.

10:43- Pretty much every media source is calling a Liberal victory at this point.

10:36- The Lindsay Post is describing a Liberal victory as "near certain".

10:32-239 of 258 in now, Johnson still up by 3%. Unless the remaining polls are entirely Tory, I am going to proclaim Johnson the winner of HKLB, and Tory to resign within days, if not tonight.
10:26-Independent Taylor nears the 1% mark, with 0.95.

10:21- This is real bad for Tory. 229 of 258, and the gap was widened to 3%.

10:17- Does anyone know what the rules are for how close a provincial election has to be for it to be a recount?

10:15-191 of 258 in now, 43.77 to 41.20. NDP narrowly in 4th.

10:13-Jason Taylor, the independent, is at 0.82, wonder if he will break 1%? Given that his motivation for entering the race was anger at Tory parachuting in, and that this election looks close, he could play a larger role then he votes indicate.

10:08-This result is not exactly what many (including myself) expected. 65% of polls reporting, Johnson up 10,402-9,812. If Tory doesn't win, he resigns tonight.

10:02-149 of 258, Johnson with a 2% lead!

10:00: Edited so most recent postings go at the top.

9:59: With roughly half the polls reporting, I wish I was in HKLB right now.

9:56: 130 of 258 in now, Johnson continues to lead. 8,220-8,024.

9:51: Wow. 107 of 258 in, and Johnson has re-taken the lead. 6,851-6,809. Now, the more densely populated areas of the riding would probably be more Liberal friendly, and report earlier, but still, this is not looking good for Tory. Greens still up on the NDP, none of the minor candidates are above 1%

9:47: The Greens are still narrowly leading the NDP, on the eve of their leadership convention, a 4th place finish would be a real kick in the teeth.

9:44: 65 polls in now, the PC's must be feeling pretty nervous, as Johnson again closes the gap, 3,917 for Johnson, 3,967 for Tory, or 43.62-43.07. As I wrote in my earlier blogs, Tory can't just win HKLB to silence discontent, he has to win decisively, and with a quarter of the poll results in, an almost tie would definately keep Tory in hot water.

9:37-So it is, Johnson closes the gap further, 883-839 with 30 polls in. Greens have pulled ahead of the NDP, 120-113.

9:36-I have been told via facebook that the website doesn't lie, and it updates on the 2 and the 7, lets see if that holds up.

9:32-Results are starting to pour in now, 19 polls, and Johnson has cut into Tory's lead, 479-437, or 44%-40%. The NDP and Green candidate are nearly tied, at 72-66.
9:28-Despite the lie of the website, 8 polls are now in, and Tory is up on Johnson 102-88.

9:24-I am growing somewhat skeptical of the Elections Ontario website claim that result are updated ever 5 minutes.9:15-Rick Johnson wins....at least the first poll reporting, with 23 votes to Tory's 11, with 2 for the NDP, 1 for the Green, and 1 for Jason Taylor.

HKLB prediction post

With the HKLB by-election today, lets see who can peg the results most accurately. Feel free to leave a comment with a guess.

John Tory-PC: 45%
Rick Johnson-Liberal: 36%
Lyn Edwards-NDP: 10%
Mike Schreiner-Green: 7%
Others: 2%

John Tory is not impressed

With both McGuinty and Tory in HKLB recently, I thought it would be interesting to compare how they spent the time:

McGuinty:
http://www.thepost.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1437437

...The new Green Act, expected to be unveiled this month, will lead to the creation of 50,000 direct and indirect jobs within three years.
McGuinty and Johnson were escorted through sprawling modern barns on the dairy farm by co-owners and brothers Jim and Phil Callaghan. McGuinty told them it is "an amazing operation."
The Callaghan brothers run the farm with their mother, Aileen, who watched the Premier's visit while leaning on the arm of Johnson's wife, Terri Crawford. Phil's wife Karen was also on hand, with their two children Jennessa and Chadd. The family later gathered together for a photo with the Premier.
McGuinty asked questions and heard that the farm has 600 head of cattle and is in the process of getting a biodigester to convert the methane from manure into 500 kilowatts of electricity, enough to power 400 homes near Lindsay.
The Callaghans will receive provincial financing of $400,000 when the project is completed, which will be in about a year. Jim Callaghan noted that "the City of Kawartha Lakes has been great. The mayor is 100 per cent behind it."
After the tour, McGuinty gave a brief press conference, thanking the family and commending them for their work ethic and family values. He praised Jim and Phil for their entrepreneurial ability and enthusiasm. He also noted the "impeccable character" of Johnson, who knew the Callaghans' late father.
He said the Green Act will reduce the time it takes to get green energy projects such as theirs up and running. The red tape to get connected to Hydro One for wind turbines will also be cut, he said.

So McGuinty talks about actually putting money into building the new green knowledge economy, (take a look at this too: http://www.thepost.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1437446) and making government more energy efficent, demonstrating that the best kind of government in an economic downturn is of an active, but limited one.


Meanwhile it looks like Nega-Tory is back on the scene:
http://www.thepost.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1437425&auth=DAVE%20FLAHERTY,%20LINDSAY%20POST%20REPORTER

I love this line:

He criticized the Liberal Party for the amount of office space it rents in Toronto.

"We can afford to move some of those jobs out of Toronto," he said.

A large amount of effort will be needed to bring new endeavours to Lindsay. The area will have to sell itself, Tory said...

Interesting to see Tory call for moving jobs out of Toronto, after all, he plans on wanting a job as a Toronto MPP as soon as he finishes Tim Peterson'ing the people of HKLB. A large amount of effort will be needed for HKLB to sell itself, considering even the man who wants to represent it at Queen's Park is looking to run away from actually having to deal with the such concerns as, you know, the actual residents of the riding. I mean, come on, can you really expect a silver spoon boy like Tory to actually want to represent a rural Central Ontario riding? He did that once and he abandoned it as soon as he could. Really, people of HKLB, you need to do a better job of impressing John Tory if you want the privilege to have him as an MPP for a year and half. It's only costing the province a few hundred thousand dollars, which is nothing to a man of Tory's background.

ps: Be sure to show support for Rick Johnson in the Lindsay Post's poll:
http://www.thepost.ca/

Vote early, vote often.

My 200th post, and 2 million reasons to vote for Rick Johnson

With an economic downturn in the cards, just another example of those "fiscal conservatives" at work:

David Tilson's severance to make room for Ernie Eves – about $100,000
Byelection to find Eves a seat in Dufferin-Grey-Wellington-Peel – $500,000
Eves's severance to make room for John Tory – about $100,000
Byelection to find Tory a seat in Dufferin-Grey-Wellington-Peel – $500,000
Tory's severance when defeated in the last election – about $60,000
Laurie Scott's severance to make room for John Tory – about $100,000
Byelection to find Tory a seat in HKLB – $500,000
A job for Laurie Scott - $150,000

Total: $2,010,000

2 million spent on internal Ontario Conservative politics in the run-up to and aftermath of the defeat of an Ontario PC government that hid a 5.6 billion dollar deficit, and 64 billion dollar defict in Ottawa thanks to Harper and Flaherty. Good to see Conservative managment of the economy at work.

Grits to challenge Tory

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090119.wPOLont-tory0119/BNStory/politics/home

This is good stuff, good stuff, particularly the rhetoric used by Johnson, a local name:

“We can elect someone who wants to use our community as a stepping stone, and who will begin shopping for his next riding, the day after the byelection,” he said in a statement from Lindsay, Ont. “Or we can elect a truly local representative to work for our community on the side of the government and bring real, positive change to our riding.”

Johnson, who would be a second time candidate, also has a good story to tell for being opposed to Tory:

Mr. Johnson resigned as president of the Ontario Public School Boards' Association to run against Ms. Scott in 2007 because he was opposed to Mr. Tory's controversial promise to extend public funding to religious schools.

With Johnson as a candidate, the local Liberal campaign can work on two big advantages: portaying Tory as an outsider, with little concern for the people of the riding except as a steping stone to better things in the GTA, and for keeping faith based funding on the agenda. Remember, we dont even have to out and out defeat Tory to limit his effectiveness as leader.

Liberals can humble Tory in H-KL-B

With it being annouced that the Liberals will both contest the by-election, and that is may be held fairly soon (in time for Tory to be in House, so before late March) we as Liberals have to realize that the circumstances are right to hand Tory if not an out and out defeat, an embarrasing result that will hinder Tory's effectiveness as a leader, and the PC's as an opposition party. Lets look at the numbers.

Based on both the most election results, the Tories have roughly a base of about 50% of the vote, the Liberals 30%, with the NDP and Greens splitting the rest. The NDP is going through a leadership race for much of the campaign, and since the riding is a no-hoper for the NDP anyway, the NDP vote, which would normally be in the low teens, can perhaps be subtracted a few points. This possible 3-4% of the vote are ripe for the taking if the Liberals run a good campaign. The Greens could be a potential spoiler for everyone, considering they pulled a good number of votes from the PC's last election province-wide, and if GPO leader Frank De Jong contests the by-election, things could get even more unpredictable, so the Greens in this one could have a vote range from as high as 15% to as low as 5%, making it hard to predict where they would either take votes from, or give votes to.

The main event, however, should be the Liberal vs. PC numbers. With a 20% gap between the starting block numbers, the Liberals will certainly be playing catch-up. While perhaps some votes could be taken from the NDP/Greens, the Liberals should focus on taking PC votes. While a 10% direct movement from the PC's to the Liberals might seem unrealistic, it should be a target. The Liberal math for a strategic or tactical victory in H-KL-B should go something perhaps like this:

Starting block numbers, roughly:

PC: 50%
Lib: 30%
NDP: 12%
GRN: 8%

If the Liberals can swing say, 6-7% directly from the Tories, that gives us:

PC: 44%
Lib: 36%
NDP: 12%
GRN: 8%

Now lets say we can grab 2-3% from a disorganized NDP, and 2% from Greens voting strategically:

PC: 44%
Lib: 41%
NDP: 9%
GRN: 6%

While this alone is not a "victory", it would humble Tory, and demonstrate his inability to make any seat safe for the PC's, and if on e-day we can pull our vote, will supress the PC vote, it is very possible we could even take the seat. In terms of tactics and rhetoric, I think we could borrow from the experience of Mississauga South, which summed up the failure of Tory as a leader and a campaigner.

1. Don't let up on faith-based funding.
Yes, he has reversed his stance. Yes, he has moved past it. But it is still a wildly unpopular idea, and it would be foolish to surrender the potential explosiveness it could still provide as ammo, as it demonstrated Tory's lack of judgement. If the PC's and Tory try to turn the tables, and try to say the Liberals are fighting old fights, and focus on the economy, take a page out of Harper's playbook and tie in an unpopular idea with the economy. Argue that Tory failed to understand the educational and social system of the province, and cannot be trusted with its economy, and that he was willing to de-fund public schools at a time of economic change, in which modern training and learning will be crucial.

2. Use Tory's unpopularity with his own voters against him.
The federal Conservatives managed to suppress the Liberal vote in the election by making Liberal voters stay at home, and we have to demonstrate our ability to show the Tories that Liberalism can use every tool in the trade to promote itself and battle those who would stem the flow of progress. Point out at every occassion that Tory has never won an election beyond PC leader, and that almost a full third of the party was prepared to ditch him a year ago. In more basic terms, John Tory is not a leader, an ironic turnaround considering that his provincial campaign in 07 was based around the concept of "Leadership Matters."

3. All politics is local
Tim Peterson failed because he was seen as a John Tory imposed outsider on PC voters, John Tory must be made to fail because he is another John Tory imposed outsider. Point out at every chance that Tory has zero commitment to the riding, and that Tory is a repeat offender in this sense, after his use it and lose it attitude towards Central Ontario, rural ridings. Run a good local campaign, with a good local candidate, with minimal outside influence in the form of physical visits to the riding by cabinet ministers, but toss out a goodie of some sort to demonstrate that unlike John Tory, the Liberals have a commitment to the riding. Turn a time-tested attack on Liberals against Tory, and paint him as a Toronto-centric elitist. Make hay out of the allegations that Tory "leaned heavily" on the local name Scott to give the seat up for a failed Torontonian, and that a Liberal candidate would be H-KL-B's man or woman in Queen's Park, not Queen's Park's man in H-KL-B.

"Mr. Toronto" to run in...an East-Central Ontarian riding that doesn't come within two ridings of the GTA

http://www.thestar.com/News/Ontario/article/563544

So John Tory has apparently found a seat, his foray into the 416 resulting in defeat, so he is slinking back to the rural, Central Ontario ridings (after Dufferin-Caledon, the second he has represented) which form the bulk of the Tory rump caucus. It will be interesting to see how Tory in the House will lobby effectively on behalf of the 905/416 regions he will need breakthroughs in to have a hope of returning to power.

Of course, this assumes Tory can even win the seat. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock was won by Laurie Scott with slightly less then 50% of the vote, so it is hardly a swing riding or anything, but with the Liberals probably able to have a base of about 30% they can build on, (and you better believe the Liberals will contest this by-election) combined with Tory's unpopularity, his parachute candidate status (again) and the unpredictable nature of by-elections, will combine to make this no walk in the park for Tory.

Another interesting note is this:

In return for giving up the seat she has held since 2003, Scott will likely succeed Bay Street veteran Andy Pringle as Tory's chief of staff at Queen's Park until the 2011 provincial election.
At that point, she would want to return to elected politics in her cottage country riding while the leader runs in another constituency, sources said.

A few things stand out here:

-A possible line of attack for Liberals during the by-election campaign, attacking Tory for only having the seat on an interim basis, run a local based campaign around the idea of Tory as a parachute candidate who prefers Toronto and based on his past experience in Dufferin-Caledon, finds Central Ontario nice to visit when in a pickle, but doesn't think it is worth his time to stay.

-If Tory is elected, how will he be able to represent his constituents effectively, since he will be a temp, interim MPP, whose citizens are seemingly unworthy of his permanent representation?

-Where would Tory run (if he is still around as leader in 2011) in the next election? Given his preference for the GTA, lets try and find a seat for him.

Don Valley West: Tory's home riding, and the site of his last run. Probably doubtful, as I doubt Tory has any desire to take on a well-entrenched cabinet minister who won a majority of the votes in the previous election, despite the decent performance by the federal Conservatives in the last election.

Thornhill: Tory was rumoured to want this seat to keep in the GTA, but Peter Shurman seems to be going nowhere, and will probably still be around in 2011.

Mississauga South: A seat Tory was reportedly very strongly considering running in before the Tim Peterson debacle, local feelings still run high (Effie was a leader of the anti-Tory movement at last years convention) and Sousa is becoming more and more locally popular. Would be interesting to see a match-up between Tory and a Liberal MPP who supported him in his mayoral run, but I don't see it happening.

Mississauga-Erindale: Site of the first federal Conservative victory in Mississauga in almost 2 decades, if it was represented by someone not a cabinet minister, Tory might give some serious thought to this one. However, given Takhar's much lower profile compared to Wynne, I think you could put this one on the maybe, albeit long-shot list.

Oakville: Another 905 seat the federal Conservatives won in 2008, and with demographics possibly friendly to Tory, and represented by a backbencher and not a cabinet minister, this could be a good one for Tory.

Oak Ridges-Markham: 905, taken again by the federal Conservatives, and the provincial Liberals "only" won by 11%, might be on the short-list.

Ottawa West-Nepean: A longshot, but an interesting one. I don't know how Tory would feel about taking on Dalton in his home city, (Dalton is significantly more popular in Ottawa then in say, Mississauga, as door knocking in both Mississauga South and Ottawa Centre demonstrated, in Mississauga South, we attempted to avoid mentioning Dalton, and the most common complaints made by voters were specifically about in Dalton, while in Ottawa Centre, dislike of Dalton was much less of an issue, at least going door to door) but it is a riding with a definite urban/suburban flavour, even if it is outside the GTA. John Baird could (if he was so inclined, it must be remembered Baird supported Flaherty for leadership, serving as his campaign co-chair, and his departure from provincial politics was attributed by some as his distaste for serving under Tory) lend Tory a formidable ground team, and the riding is traditionally a swing riding, which would come in hand. However, Tory would never run in OW-N unless Jim Watson, the very popular incumbent MPP and another cabinet minister, steps aside to run for Mayor of Ottawa, which he apparently is strongly considering. I really doubt he would go further east then he would be with H-KL-B, but hey, you never know.

So if we look at those, I say the most likely options for a Tory 2011 run would be Oakville and Oak Ridges-Markham, with a particular emphasis on Oakville.

Oh, and let the record show that by displacing a female MPP in order to cling to his job, John Tory will bring the female PC caucus down to 6, or less then a quarter of the PC caucus. As a point of comparison, the Liberal cabinet has 8 female members in the cabinet, not including backbenchers. Well done, Mr. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock (just doesn't have the same ring, does it?)

Tory stays on, and some questions

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080223.wtoryleader0223/BNStory/National/home

So Tory is staying on with the Joe Clark number. I've got a few questions, and some guessing answers.

1. Is Tory planning to actually re-sign in the long term, and his staying on as leader is simply a way to ensure short term stability?

2. If Tory does resign, would he pull a Clark and run to succeed himself? I think if he did resign he might do this, because there really isn't any other high profile challenger, and in a new leadership race, all Tory would need is 50%+1

3. Something in the Globe and Mail article caught my eye:
One of his staff members confirmed that Mr. Tory dropped in on a party last night held by members of the group seeking to oust him. The party was hosted by Effie Triantafilopoulos, the burned candidate in the riding of Mississauga South who had to step aside for Tim Peterson after he crossed the floor from the Liberals to the Tories.
The evening ended with a large group photo taken with Ms. Triantafilopoulos and Mr. Tory right in the middle smiling, a source said.

Might Effie be in line for an appointment as the federal Conservative candidate? Effie publicly declared that she did hold her nose and vote for Tim, and with Tory definitely making a reach out, the Mississauga South conservative family is probably trying to get back together. I have heard some rumours that the Conservatives have been deliberately stretching out the nomination race (which has been going on since the party bizarrely vetoed Phil Green running again) which is becoming increasingly crowded, in case a star candidate comes along. As Mississauga South (minus the Durham seats, which are at the extreme end of the GTA, as well as Mississauga Streetsville, which will go back to being a Liberal held seat) is the Conservatives best shot at winning in the GTA, they will for sure be focusing tons of resources on it, and you better believe they would want a candidate that would re-motivate the conservative base, and Effie would be one who could do that. A few months back, incumbent Liberal MP Paul Szabo sent out a fundraising letter saying that the need for cash was particularly important, as he felt he would be facing a "well funded, high profile" candidate.

4. If Tory does want to stay on in the long-term, which MPP gives up a seat, or will he remain seatless? If Tory is realistic about staying on, he needs a seat, or else he will become irrelevant. The new MPP for his old seat of Dufferin Caledon has been very adamant about not giving it up, and no rural backbencher has given signs of wanting to give up a seat. It would be interesting if Tory, who made his desire to win over urban centres, and ran in his home riding of Don Valley West in Toronto, were to run in Thornhill, the only Toronto seat gained by the PC's, or relegated himself to being a parachute candidate in a rural riding. I doubt he will be able to convince the PC MPP in Thornhill to give his seat up, (particularly as he won it narrowly) so if Tory does get a seat, expect it to be far from the urban and suburban voters Tory needs to win over.

5. If Tory wants to stay on long-term, how fast, and how far, to the right will he sprint to win over disgruntled grassroots who thought the last PC platform was just a re-wording of the Liberal platform (which it was)? Given that figures on the right of the party are leading the charge against Tory, and have a very large foothold against his leadership, Tory will have to pull some impressive policy flip-flops in order to please them. Watch Tory's next few policy statements closely, if he continues to sound like a Red Tory centrist, then I think he is just staying on in the short term for stability reasons, but if he cuts hard to the right, he is probably aiming to stay on in the long run.

6. If Tory does go down at some point, who would run for the leadership? Jim Flaherty is obviously amongst those opposed to Tory's leadership, but I don't see him jumping from the federal cabinet to the provincial opposition benches. I've heard John Baird tossed around, but I don't see him taking the plunge either, I think it will either be someone already from the provincial ranks, or an outsider. Names commonly tossed around are Tim Hudak, Randy Hillier, Lisa MacLeod, and Christine Elliot. I'm also going to go ahead and toss out Pinball Clemons as outsider candidate, based on nothing but a guess. I don't think the leader of the anti-Tory movement, Rueben Devlin, would give it a run.

How quickly things change

Already the last post I wrote is outdated, and the link takes you to a totally new article, with a different headline:

I was unaware that internal tracking showed him more comfortably in the 70 per cent range, which probably would have been enough to avert any leadership questions. Now things are getting interesting. Also the article mentions Peter Kormos as the NDP observer and counter-point man, and I'd just like to point out that my man Charles Sousa, Mississauga South MPP, is the Liberal counter-point.

Tory gets Joe Clark number

http://www.thestar.com/News/Ontario/article/306314

The Toronto Star headline reads "Conservatives back Tory", but I'm not so sure. As I say, two-thirds support is exactly the number that Joe Clark got in 1983, and Clark resigned to run in a leadership race to succeed himself, as well as below the 75% that Ralph Klein felt he needed, and the 80% that enemies of Tory felt he needed to avoid any more questions.

As Tory has always said he would accept 50%+1 as a mandate to stay on, I highly doubt he will resign and spark a leadership contest, but expect to hear rumblings about Tory's leadership for quite some time.

Because "leadership" is rigging your own review

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080223.wontario23/BNStory/National/home?cid=al_gam_mostview

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080223/tory_leadership_080223/20080223?hub=QPeriod

As a Liberal, I really have no strong opinion either way on if Tory stays or goes, but I do think that John Tory and the PC establishment willingness to not just bend, but openly break party rules and ignore the will of party members speaks volumes about the character of Tory. The CTV article has a quote from an anti-Tory delegate from Mississauga:

Roland Willis, a Mississauga lawyer and delegate, said it's time for Tory to step aside.
"Please go away,'' Willis said. "Please don't bother our party anymore ... He's incompetent. He's an incompetent leader.''

I would be shocked if any Mississauga PC supported Tory at this point, given that his election campaign resulted in hammering losses for the the PC's across a city which used to be good ground for them. But Mississauga PC's, particularly in my home riding of Mississauga South, already know all about being ignored and overruled by John Tory and the PC establishment:

Because "leadership" is flip-flopping on your central campaign theme

http://communities.canada.com/nationalpost/blogs/ontarioelection/archive/2007/10/01/tory-confirms-free-vote-on-religious-funding-if-elected-premier.aspx

"In Guelph last Monday, Mr. Tory said: "It's obviously an important element of our platform and I would expect that people will support what's in our platform. It's do what you said you would do."

That was then.

"MPPs will be allowed a free so that they are at liberty to vote their conscience and represent the wishes of their constituents...Through this free vote, in this significant way, the public can be more involved in the decision making."

A week or so, and a 10 point Liberal lead later, this is now.

And of course, "leadership" is also being attacked by members of your own party:

"One long-time Mr. Tory said the decision “reinforces” the impression among some that Mr. Tory has bad judgment. “The rest of his policies are all so mushy,” said the source. “It didn’t give him any place to go when he came forward with the faith-based thing.Here’s one big policy and the rest is all so vague and mush that he didn’t have an escape hatch.”

And of course, "leadership" is having front bench members discuss leadership races during campaign crunch time.

"Supporters loyal to Mr. Hudak and Mr. Flaherty (and potentially Ms. Elliott) have been distancing themselves from the faith-based “fiasco” lately, the source said, telling party activists that the unpopular funding approach was always second best to a tax credit. Some party members think Mr. Klees, a social conservative who lost to Mr. Tory in the September 2004 leadership race, would have difficulties running again. He is widely credited as the force behind Tory’s disastrous religious school funding policy. "

Greg Sorbara, Finance Minister and Liberal campaign chief, I think, says it best:

“It took an awful lot of gall on Mr. Tory’s part , today of all days, to talk about leadership and his special style of leadership...this is an appalling example of bad leadership and weak judgment. The fact is, the issue remains the same. Mr. Tory proposes to continue the debate into the next two, three or four years with all of the incumbent destabilization in public education, all of the division, all of the rancor.”

Leadership is restoring balance to the public system and civil society as a whole after the 8 years of mean-spirited cuts, public sector chaos, and fiscal mismanagement that is the legacy of the Harris/Eves governments. Leadership making the tough choices that serve the people, not political personality. Dalton McGuinty has displayed leadership in 4 years by acting less like a polititan, and more like a public servant. Leadership is also admiting areas that you've fallen short, and setting acheiveable and reasonable goals to fix those problems, and keep moving forward. John Tory's "leadership" as demonstrated throughout the campaign is empty promises, Karl Rove style negativity, glossed over platforms, and now, flip floping.

As I always say, John Tory is right about one thing, leadership does matter, and John Tory is not a leader.

EDIT: This: http://www.thestar.com/OntarioElection/article/262654 is hilarious!

"Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory’s scramble to change the channel from his flip-flop on funding faith-based schools suffered a setback this morning when a former party supporter ambushed him in a Scarborough supermarket."

Dalton's Leadership

http://www.thestar.com/OntarioElection/article/261178

So far I've been impressed with the tone of the Liberal re-election campaign. Faced with accusations of "broken promises", the Liberals and Dalton McGuinty have responded with openess and honesty, rather than attempt to gloss over percieved weaknesses, which has been the backbone of the John Tory Conservative campaign. When Tory has shifted blame and attacked the media for daring to compare his platform to Mike Harris, Dalton's platform was fully costed out and planned before the election. When Tory has pledged to introduce segregated schools and two-tier heath care, Dalton has stood up and defended our inclusive public education system, and investments in heath care after 4 years of Conservative mismanagement. Now Dalton is calling on John Tory to display some of his supposedly vaunted leadership, and discuss actual policy planks in his platform. Expect either no response at all, or a typical glossy "NegaTory" attack of Dalton. Leadership does matter. Only one of the two men who can possibly be Premier on Oct 10th is displaying any, and it's not the one who puts "Leadership" on his campaign signs.

"NegaTory" and "HoJo" continues lack of leadership, energy edition

So John Tory is continuing his relentlessly negative campaign, and after putting out ads more or less accusing Dalton of murdering every child in Ontario, now he is attacking the Liberals energy record and plans. The Liberal plan for energy supply is one of balance and moderation, which ensures that Ontario has both green and effective power, and that we can remain a net exporter of power. Howard Hampton on the other hand, wants to phase out nuclear power (read: protect his voter base from the Greens) removing 50% of our energy supplies and create a massive make-work program for his home area in the form of a non-profit hydro corporation. The Conservatives, on the other hand, would like to work around federal environmental legislation, and push for more and more nuclear power, while being critical of the Liberal record on the nuclear file. Of course, the real kicker of Tory's power platform comes from 24 Hours this morning:

"Details of the Conservative plan were scant. Tory wouldn't say how much nuclear power the province should have or how we planned to dispose of the radioactive waste."

Par for the course for NegaTory, attack, attack, attack, but pray no one dares to ask policy questions. Of course, he did work on Kim Campbell's campaign, which in addition to airing the most vile political attack ad ever (green lighted by Tory himself), gave us the famous "Elections are no time to discuss policy" quote. Seems Tory hasn't changed gears much since 1993.

Debate confirms what we all knew

Dalton's opening video, where he honestly and realistically talked about the shortcomings of his government took a lot out of the wind of Hampton's (but particularly Tory's) sails. Dalton presented himself as the best leader to keep moving Ontario forward, while admitting areas in which the Liberal Party well short. Tory, who continues to rely overwhelmingly on negativity and attacking Dalton, was left repeating the same talking points over and over again, with zero mention of his own platform, save having to defend his half baked plans for faith based education and two tier health care. Hampton looked rattled early on, but managed to gain strength as the debate went on, but failed to deliver more than glancing blows on issues he should have owned, such as manufacturing job loss and tuition fees.

Southwestern Ontario Liberal collected some of the best media reaction quotes, and they deserve a re-post here:

“Either way, the Liberals are stronger on education than the Tories, who get stuck with dealing with the faith-based school issue. Call it an early Dalton lead.”- Toronto Sun

“McGuinty's opening video: Admits right off the bat why he broke his tax pledge. Smart.”- Dan Cook, Globe and Mail

“[McGuinty] pointed out quite efficiently that the NDP energy position is insane.”- Adam Radwanski, Globe and Mail

“[I] credit Dalton for bridging back to his message.”- Guy Giorno, former Mike Harris Chief of Staff, National Post

“McGuinty's making a decent case for his government having invested well in [post-secondary education].”- Adam Radwanski, Globe and Mail

http://southwesternontarioliberal.blogspot.com/2007/09/ontario-leaders-debate-my-favourite.html

Big thanks to her for collecting these!

Conservatives putting faith in non-existant John Tory "leadership"

"Tory admitted he hadn't put "all the flesh on the bones" of this policy so couldn't say exactly how it would work. But he did say it would do more than the Liberals have done with their Foodland Ontario ads."

Seem familiar?

The entire Conservative election strategy seems to rest on the fact that John Tory is supposed to be some magical figure, with his so-called "leadership" bringing the Conservatives into a promised land. If you read the Conservative platform, the phrase "Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario" shows up maybe twice, but "A John Tory" government is on every single page, plastered to every promise. If you read the literature of the PC candidate in my home riding of Mississauga South, (the floorcrossing Tim Peterson) you wouldn't be able to guess that the PC Party actually exists, as Peterson is apparently "Your John Tory Candidate in Mississauga South". Now aside from Tim, this total reliance on John Tory to be some godly figure is destined to fail.

Aside from his dangerous positions on faith based schools, and today's statement of Tory being open to two-tier health care, the entire Conservative election strategy has been to simply attack Dalton McGuinty (after Tory said he wanted an issues based campaign) and promote the "leadership" of John Tory as the alternative. However, when pressed on the actual issues, the Conservatives and John Tory are remarkably empty. This may be because the platform itself is so vague and filled with watered-down Liberal polices that Tory is uncomfortable attacking Liberal ideas and platforms which are replicated in his own platform, or it may be because the Conservatives are afraid of any discussion of their own platform, which of course will bring people to thinking about the Harris days.

Perhaps the best example was when prior to the start of the official campaign, Tory was critical of the Liberals "pre-election spending binge", but when asked what part of the Liberal spending he would cut, was totally evasive.

John Tory and the Conservatives are simply attempting to hide every flaw in the platform with the cover of "leadership". But is leadership running a one-man campaign? Is leadership taking other parties talking points and rhetoric, changing the wording behind them, and presenting them as a fresh alternative? Is leadership denying the members of the Mississauga South Progressive Conservative riding association a democratic vote, invalidating the hard work of the members who were working on a number of active nomination campaigns? Is leadership not having any answers to questions about policy?

John Tory is right about one thing, Leadership does matter.