11:30-Dunno if anyone is covering this live, so I am gonna sign off, congradulations to Rick Johnson!
11:22-258 of 258. Rick Johnson wins with 15, 483/43.72, John Tory with 14,576/41.17, Mike Schreiner with 2,352/6.64, and Lyn Edwards with 2,117/5.98.
11:10-I'm trying to find somewhere that has live coverage, CTV, Global, and City have all switched to other stories.
11:03-Global was referring to Tory's leadership in the past tense.
11:01-City News has live coverage, saying "the party is now in disarry".
11:00-Lets see how the late news handles Tory's loss.
10:57-Just clearing up the dregs now, 253 of 258, 43.73-41.17. A few people have guessed Christine Elliot as PC leader.
10:50-Oh, and we are now at 248 of 258. 43.80-41.06-6.68-5.99 is the breakdown for the major parties.
10:48- Any guesses for next PC leader?
10:47-Toronto Star says that Tory has lost.
10:44-Facebook tells me Tory has conceeded, 243 of 258, Johnson up 43.78-41.07, Greens looks like they will finish third.
10:43- Pretty much every media source is calling a Liberal victory at this point.
10:36- The Lindsay Post is describing a Liberal victory as "near certain".
10:32-239 of 258 in now, Johnson still up by 3%. Unless the remaining polls are entirely Tory, I am going to proclaim Johnson the winner of HKLB, and Tory to resign within days, if not tonight.
10:26-Independent Taylor nears the 1% mark, with 0.95.
10:21- This is real bad for Tory. 229 of 258, and the gap was widened to 3%.
10:17- Does anyone know what the rules are for how close a provincial election has to be for it to be a recount?
10:15-191 of 258 in now, 43.77 to 41.20. NDP narrowly in 4th.
10:13-Jason Taylor, the independent, is at 0.82, wonder if he will break 1%? Given that his motivation for entering the race was anger at Tory parachuting in, and that this election looks close, he could play a larger role then he votes indicate.
10:08-This result is not exactly what many (including myself) expected. 65% of polls reporting, Johnson up 10,402-9,812. If Tory doesn't win, he resigns tonight.
10:02-149 of 258, Johnson with a 2% lead!
10:00: Edited so most recent postings go at the top.
9:59: With roughly half the polls reporting, I wish I was in HKLB right now.
9:56: 130 of 258 in now, Johnson continues to lead. 8,220-8,024.
9:51: Wow. 107 of 258 in, and Johnson has re-taken the lead. 6,851-6,809. Now, the more densely populated areas of the riding would probably be more Liberal friendly, and report earlier, but still, this is not looking good for Tory. Greens still up on the NDP, none of the minor candidates are above 1%
9:47: The Greens are still narrowly leading the NDP, on the eve of their leadership convention, a 4th place finish would be a real kick in the teeth.
9:44: 65 polls in now, the PC's must be feeling pretty nervous, as Johnson again closes the gap, 3,917 for Johnson, 3,967 for Tory, or 43.62-43.07. As I wrote in my earlier blogs, Tory can't just win HKLB to silence discontent, he has to win decisively, and with a quarter of the poll results in, an almost tie would definately keep Tory in hot water.
9:37-So it is, Johnson closes the gap further, 883-839 with 30 polls in. Greens have pulled ahead of the NDP, 120-113.
9:36-I have been told via facebook that the website doesn't lie, and it updates on the 2 and the 7, lets see if that holds up.
9:32-Results are starting to pour in now, 19 polls, and Johnson has cut into Tory's lead, 479-437, or 44%-40%. The NDP and Green candidate are nearly tied, at 72-66.
9:28-Despite the lie of the website, 8 polls are now in, and Tory is up on Johnson 102-88.
9:24-I am growing somewhat skeptical of the Elections Ontario website claim that result are updated ever 5 minutes.9:15-Rick Johnson wins....at least the first poll reporting, with 23 votes to Tory's 11, with 2 for the NDP, 1 for the Green, and 1 for Jason Taylor.
Showing posts with label h-kl-b. Show all posts
Showing posts with label h-kl-b. Show all posts
Thursday, March 5, 2009
HKLB prediction post
With the HKLB by-election today, lets see who can peg the results most accurately. Feel free to leave a comment with a guess.
John Tory-PC: 45%
Rick Johnson-Liberal: 36%
Lyn Edwards-NDP: 10%
Mike Schreiner-Green: 7%
Others: 2%
John Tory-PC: 45%
Rick Johnson-Liberal: 36%
Lyn Edwards-NDP: 10%
Mike Schreiner-Green: 7%
Others: 2%
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
John Tory is not impressed
With both McGuinty and Tory in HKLB recently, I thought it would be interesting to compare how they spent the time:
McGuinty:
http://www.thepost.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1437437
...The new Green Act, expected to be unveiled this month, will lead to the creation of 50,000 direct and indirect jobs within three years.
McGuinty and Johnson were escorted through sprawling modern barns on the dairy farm by co-owners and brothers Jim and Phil Callaghan. McGuinty told them it is "an amazing operation."
The Callaghan brothers run the farm with their mother, Aileen, who watched the Premier's visit while leaning on the arm of Johnson's wife, Terri Crawford. Phil's wife Karen was also on hand, with their two children Jennessa and Chadd. The family later gathered together for a photo with the Premier.
McGuinty asked questions and heard that the farm has 600 head of cattle and is in the process of getting a biodigester to convert the methane from manure into 500 kilowatts of electricity, enough to power 400 homes near Lindsay.
The Callaghans will receive provincial financing of $400,000 when the project is completed, which will be in about a year. Jim Callaghan noted that "the City of Kawartha Lakes has been great. The mayor is 100 per cent behind it."
After the tour, McGuinty gave a brief press conference, thanking the family and commending them for their work ethic and family values. He praised Jim and Phil for their entrepreneurial ability and enthusiasm. He also noted the "impeccable character" of Johnson, who knew the Callaghans' late father.
He said the Green Act will reduce the time it takes to get green energy projects such as theirs up and running. The red tape to get connected to Hydro One for wind turbines will also be cut, he said.
So McGuinty talks about actually putting money into building the new green knowledge economy, (take a look at this too: http://www.thepost.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1437446) and making government more energy efficent, demonstrating that the best kind of government in an economic downturn is of an active, but limited one.
Meanwhile it looks like Nega-Tory is back on the scene:
http://www.thepost.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1437425&auth=DAVE%20FLAHERTY,%20LINDSAY%20POST%20REPORTER
I love this line:
He criticized the Liberal Party for the amount of office space it rents in Toronto.
"We can afford to move some of those jobs out of Toronto," he said.
A large amount of effort will be needed to bring new endeavours to Lindsay. The area will have to sell itself, Tory said...
Interesting to see Tory call for moving jobs out of Toronto, after all, he plans on wanting a job as a Toronto MPP as soon as he finishes Tim Peterson'ing the people of HKLB. A large amount of effort will be needed for HKLB to sell itself, considering even the man who wants to represent it at Queen's Park is looking to run away from actually having to deal with the such concerns as, you know, the actual residents of the riding. I mean, come on, can you really expect a silver spoon boy like Tory to actually want to represent a rural Central Ontario riding? He did that once and he abandoned it as soon as he could. Really, people of HKLB, you need to do a better job of impressing John Tory if you want the privilege to have him as an MPP for a year and half. It's only costing the province a few hundred thousand dollars, which is nothing to a man of Tory's background.
ps: Be sure to show support for Rick Johnson in the Lindsay Post's poll:
http://www.thepost.ca/
Vote early, vote often.
McGuinty:
http://www.thepost.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1437437
...The new Green Act, expected to be unveiled this month, will lead to the creation of 50,000 direct and indirect jobs within three years.
McGuinty and Johnson were escorted through sprawling modern barns on the dairy farm by co-owners and brothers Jim and Phil Callaghan. McGuinty told them it is "an amazing operation."
The Callaghan brothers run the farm with their mother, Aileen, who watched the Premier's visit while leaning on the arm of Johnson's wife, Terri Crawford. Phil's wife Karen was also on hand, with their two children Jennessa and Chadd. The family later gathered together for a photo with the Premier.
McGuinty asked questions and heard that the farm has 600 head of cattle and is in the process of getting a biodigester to convert the methane from manure into 500 kilowatts of electricity, enough to power 400 homes near Lindsay.
The Callaghans will receive provincial financing of $400,000 when the project is completed, which will be in about a year. Jim Callaghan noted that "the City of Kawartha Lakes has been great. The mayor is 100 per cent behind it."
After the tour, McGuinty gave a brief press conference, thanking the family and commending them for their work ethic and family values. He praised Jim and Phil for their entrepreneurial ability and enthusiasm. He also noted the "impeccable character" of Johnson, who knew the Callaghans' late father.
He said the Green Act will reduce the time it takes to get green energy projects such as theirs up and running. The red tape to get connected to Hydro One for wind turbines will also be cut, he said.
So McGuinty talks about actually putting money into building the new green knowledge economy, (take a look at this too: http://www.thepost.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1437446) and making government more energy efficent, demonstrating that the best kind of government in an economic downturn is of an active, but limited one.
Meanwhile it looks like Nega-Tory is back on the scene:
http://www.thepost.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1437425&auth=DAVE%20FLAHERTY,%20LINDSAY%20POST%20REPORTER
I love this line:
He criticized the Liberal Party for the amount of office space it rents in Toronto.
"We can afford to move some of those jobs out of Toronto," he said.
A large amount of effort will be needed to bring new endeavours to Lindsay. The area will have to sell itself, Tory said...
Interesting to see Tory call for moving jobs out of Toronto, after all, he plans on wanting a job as a Toronto MPP as soon as he finishes Tim Peterson'ing the people of HKLB. A large amount of effort will be needed for HKLB to sell itself, considering even the man who wants to represent it at Queen's Park is looking to run away from actually having to deal with the such concerns as, you know, the actual residents of the riding. I mean, come on, can you really expect a silver spoon boy like Tory to actually want to represent a rural Central Ontario riding? He did that once and he abandoned it as soon as he could. Really, people of HKLB, you need to do a better job of impressing John Tory if you want the privilege to have him as an MPP for a year and half. It's only costing the province a few hundred thousand dollars, which is nothing to a man of Tory's background.
ps: Be sure to show support for Rick Johnson in the Lindsay Post's poll:
http://www.thepost.ca/
Vote early, vote often.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Thursday, January 22, 2009
My 200th post, and 2 million reasons to vote for Rick Johnson
With an economic downturn in the cards, just another example of those "fiscal conservatives" at work:
David Tilson's severance to make room for Ernie Eves – about $100,000
Byelection to find Eves a seat in Dufferin-Grey-Wellington-Peel – $500,000
Eves's severance to make room for John Tory – about $100,000
Byelection to find Tory a seat in Dufferin-Grey-Wellington-Peel – $500,000
Tory's severance when defeated in the last election – about $60,000
Laurie Scott's severance to make room for John Tory – about $100,000
Byelection to find Tory a seat in HKLB – $500,000
A job for Laurie Scott - $150,000
Total: $2,010,000
2 million spent on internal Ontario Conservative politics in the run-up to and aftermath of the defeat of an Ontario PC government that hid a 5.6 billion dollar deficit, and 64 billion dollar defict in Ottawa thanks to Harper and Flaherty. Good to see Conservative managment of the economy at work.
David Tilson's severance to make room for Ernie Eves – about $100,000
Byelection to find Eves a seat in Dufferin-Grey-Wellington-Peel – $500,000
Eves's severance to make room for John Tory – about $100,000
Byelection to find Tory a seat in Dufferin-Grey-Wellington-Peel – $500,000
Tory's severance when defeated in the last election – about $60,000
Laurie Scott's severance to make room for John Tory – about $100,000
Byelection to find Tory a seat in HKLB – $500,000
A job for Laurie Scott - $150,000
Total: $2,010,000
2 million spent on internal Ontario Conservative politics in the run-up to and aftermath of the defeat of an Ontario PC government that hid a 5.6 billion dollar deficit, and 64 billion dollar defict in Ottawa thanks to Harper and Flaherty. Good to see Conservative managment of the economy at work.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Grits to challenge Tory
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090119.wPOLont-tory0119/BNStory/politics/home
This is good stuff, good stuff, particularly the rhetoric used by Johnson, a local name:
“We can elect someone who wants to use our community as a stepping stone, and who will begin shopping for his next riding, the day after the byelection,” he said in a statement from Lindsay, Ont. “Or we can elect a truly local representative to work for our community on the side of the government and bring real, positive change to our riding.”
Johnson, who would be a second time candidate, also has a good story to tell for being opposed to Tory:
Mr. Johnson resigned as president of the Ontario Public School Boards' Association to run against Ms. Scott in 2007 because he was opposed to Mr. Tory's controversial promise to extend public funding to religious schools.
With Johnson as a candidate, the local Liberal campaign can work on two big advantages: portaying Tory as an outsider, with little concern for the people of the riding except as a steping stone to better things in the GTA, and for keeping faith based funding on the agenda. Remember, we dont even have to out and out defeat Tory to limit his effectiveness as leader.
This is good stuff, good stuff, particularly the rhetoric used by Johnson, a local name:
“We can elect someone who wants to use our community as a stepping stone, and who will begin shopping for his next riding, the day after the byelection,” he said in a statement from Lindsay, Ont. “Or we can elect a truly local representative to work for our community on the side of the government and bring real, positive change to our riding.”
Johnson, who would be a second time candidate, also has a good story to tell for being opposed to Tory:
Mr. Johnson resigned as president of the Ontario Public School Boards' Association to run against Ms. Scott in 2007 because he was opposed to Mr. Tory's controversial promise to extend public funding to religious schools.
With Johnson as a candidate, the local Liberal campaign can work on two big advantages: portaying Tory as an outsider, with little concern for the people of the riding except as a steping stone to better things in the GTA, and for keeping faith based funding on the agenda. Remember, we dont even have to out and out defeat Tory to limit his effectiveness as leader.
Friday, January 9, 2009
Liberals can humble Tory in H-KL-B
With it being annouced that the Liberals will both contest the by-election, and that is may be held fairly soon (in time for Tory to be in House, so before late March) we as Liberals have to realize that the circumstances are right to hand Tory if not an out and out defeat, an embarrasing result that will hinder Tory's effectiveness as a leader, and the PC's as an opposition party. Lets look at the numbers.
Based on both the most election results, the Tories have roughly a base of about 50% of the vote, the Liberals 30%, with the NDP and Greens splitting the rest. The NDP is going through a leadership race for much of the campaign, and since the riding is a no-hoper for the NDP anyway, the NDP vote, which would normally be in the low teens, can perhaps be subtracted a few points. This possible 3-4% of the vote are ripe for the taking if the Liberals run a good campaign. The Greens could be a potential spoiler for everyone, considering they pulled a good number of votes from the PC's last election province-wide, and if GPO leader Frank De Jong contests the by-election, things could get even more unpredictable, so the Greens in this one could have a vote range from as high as 15% to as low as 5%, making it hard to predict where they would either take votes from, or give votes to.
The main event, however, should be the Liberal vs. PC numbers. With a 20% gap between the starting block numbers, the Liberals will certainly be playing catch-up. While perhaps some votes could be taken from the NDP/Greens, the Liberals should focus on taking PC votes. While a 10% direct movement from the PC's to the Liberals might seem unrealistic, it should be a target. The Liberal math for a strategic or tactical victory in H-KL-B should go something perhaps like this:
Starting block numbers, roughly:
PC: 50%
Lib: 30%
NDP: 12%
GRN: 8%
If the Liberals can swing say, 6-7% directly from the Tories, that gives us:
PC: 44%
Lib: 36%
NDP: 12%
GRN: 8%
Now lets say we can grab 2-3% from a disorganized NDP, and 2% from Greens voting strategically:
PC: 44%
Lib: 41%
NDP: 9%
GRN: 6%
While this alone is not a "victory", it would humble Tory, and demonstrate his inability to make any seat safe for the PC's, and if on e-day we can pull our vote, will supress the PC vote, it is very possible we could even take the seat. In terms of tactics and rhetoric, I think we could borrow from the experience of Mississauga South, which summed up the failure of Tory as a leader and a campaigner.
1. Don't let up on faith-based funding.
Yes, he has reversed his stance. Yes, he has moved past it. But it is still a wildly unpopular idea, and it would be foolish to surrender the potential explosiveness it could still provide as ammo, as it demonstrated Tory's lack of judgement. If the PC's and Tory try to turn the tables, and try to say the Liberals are fighting old fights, and focus on the economy, take a page out of Harper's playbook and tie in an unpopular idea with the economy. Argue that Tory failed to understand the educational and social system of the province, and cannot be trusted with its economy, and that he was willing to de-fund public schools at a time of economic change, in which modern training and learning will be crucial.
2. Use Tory's unpopularity with his own voters against him.
The federal Conservatives managed to suppress the Liberal vote in the election by making Liberal voters stay at home, and we have to demonstrate our ability to show the Tories that Liberalism can use every tool in the trade to promote itself and battle those who would stem the flow of progress. Point out at every occassion that Tory has never won an election beyond PC leader, and that almost a full third of the party was prepared to ditch him a year ago. In more basic terms, John Tory is not a leader, an ironic turnaround considering that his provincial campaign in 07 was based around the concept of "Leadership Matters."
3. All politics is local
Tim Peterson failed because he was seen as a John Tory imposed outsider on PC voters, John Tory must be made to fail because he is another John Tory imposed outsider. Point out at every chance that Tory has zero commitment to the riding, and that Tory is a repeat offender in this sense, after his use it and lose it attitude towards Central Ontario, rural ridings. Run a good local campaign, with a good local candidate, with minimal outside influence in the form of physical visits to the riding by cabinet ministers, but toss out a goodie of some sort to demonstrate that unlike John Tory, the Liberals have a commitment to the riding. Turn a time-tested attack on Liberals against Tory, and paint him as a Toronto-centric elitist. Make hay out of the allegations that Tory "leaned heavily" on the local name Scott to give the seat up for a failed Torontonian, and that a Liberal candidate would be H-KL-B's man or woman in Queen's Park, not Queen's Park's man in H-KL-B.
Based on both the most election results, the Tories have roughly a base of about 50% of the vote, the Liberals 30%, with the NDP and Greens splitting the rest. The NDP is going through a leadership race for much of the campaign, and since the riding is a no-hoper for the NDP anyway, the NDP vote, which would normally be in the low teens, can perhaps be subtracted a few points. This possible 3-4% of the vote are ripe for the taking if the Liberals run a good campaign. The Greens could be a potential spoiler for everyone, considering they pulled a good number of votes from the PC's last election province-wide, and if GPO leader Frank De Jong contests the by-election, things could get even more unpredictable, so the Greens in this one could have a vote range from as high as 15% to as low as 5%, making it hard to predict where they would either take votes from, or give votes to.
The main event, however, should be the Liberal vs. PC numbers. With a 20% gap between the starting block numbers, the Liberals will certainly be playing catch-up. While perhaps some votes could be taken from the NDP/Greens, the Liberals should focus on taking PC votes. While a 10% direct movement from the PC's to the Liberals might seem unrealistic, it should be a target. The Liberal math for a strategic or tactical victory in H-KL-B should go something perhaps like this:
Starting block numbers, roughly:
PC: 50%
Lib: 30%
NDP: 12%
GRN: 8%
If the Liberals can swing say, 6-7% directly from the Tories, that gives us:
PC: 44%
Lib: 36%
NDP: 12%
GRN: 8%
Now lets say we can grab 2-3% from a disorganized NDP, and 2% from Greens voting strategically:
PC: 44%
Lib: 41%
NDP: 9%
GRN: 6%
While this alone is not a "victory", it would humble Tory, and demonstrate his inability to make any seat safe for the PC's, and if on e-day we can pull our vote, will supress the PC vote, it is very possible we could even take the seat. In terms of tactics and rhetoric, I think we could borrow from the experience of Mississauga South, which summed up the failure of Tory as a leader and a campaigner.
1. Don't let up on faith-based funding.
Yes, he has reversed his stance. Yes, he has moved past it. But it is still a wildly unpopular idea, and it would be foolish to surrender the potential explosiveness it could still provide as ammo, as it demonstrated Tory's lack of judgement. If the PC's and Tory try to turn the tables, and try to say the Liberals are fighting old fights, and focus on the economy, take a page out of Harper's playbook and tie in an unpopular idea with the economy. Argue that Tory failed to understand the educational and social system of the province, and cannot be trusted with its economy, and that he was willing to de-fund public schools at a time of economic change, in which modern training and learning will be crucial.
2. Use Tory's unpopularity with his own voters against him.
The federal Conservatives managed to suppress the Liberal vote in the election by making Liberal voters stay at home, and we have to demonstrate our ability to show the Tories that Liberalism can use every tool in the trade to promote itself and battle those who would stem the flow of progress. Point out at every occassion that Tory has never won an election beyond PC leader, and that almost a full third of the party was prepared to ditch him a year ago. In more basic terms, John Tory is not a leader, an ironic turnaround considering that his provincial campaign in 07 was based around the concept of "Leadership Matters."
3. All politics is local
Tim Peterson failed because he was seen as a John Tory imposed outsider on PC voters, John Tory must be made to fail because he is another John Tory imposed outsider. Point out at every chance that Tory has zero commitment to the riding, and that Tory is a repeat offender in this sense, after his use it and lose it attitude towards Central Ontario, rural ridings. Run a good local campaign, with a good local candidate, with minimal outside influence in the form of physical visits to the riding by cabinet ministers, but toss out a goodie of some sort to demonstrate that unlike John Tory, the Liberals have a commitment to the riding. Turn a time-tested attack on Liberals against Tory, and paint him as a Toronto-centric elitist. Make hay out of the allegations that Tory "leaned heavily" on the local name Scott to give the seat up for a failed Torontonian, and that a Liberal candidate would be H-KL-B's man or woman in Queen's Park, not Queen's Park's man in H-KL-B.
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