Ontario NDP chooses Horwath

One ballot remains, but with Horwath up 43.6-31.7 on Tabuns, and third place finisher Bisson endorsing Horwath, I feel confident in calling Andrea Horwath the next leader of the Ontario NDP, and the first female major party leader since Lyn McLeod of the Ontario Liberals. Tabuns was seen by many as the frontrunner, but it looks like Horwath's hardline pro-union/anti business positions have lifted her over Tabuns, an environmentalist whose union ties were significantly weaker. While having a female, Southern Ontarian leader will probably give the NDP enough of an energy boost to win a handful more seats in 2011, I can't see how Howard Hampton trade unionism in a new package will move the NDP significantly further ahead.

NDP-Green Dynamics

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/ontariovotes2007/story/2007/10/02/ov-green-parry-071002.html

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/ontariovotes2007/story/2007/10/02/ov-green-parry-071002.html

So the 2 parties which can't form government are starting to fight with each other. What I can say from personal experience is that de Jong is basically correct when he accuses the NDP of attempting to spread misinformation on the Green platform and try to convince Green voters that the party is something it's not. NDP canvassers are told to knock on doors that have Green Party signs on the lawn, and "enlighten" the voters about the Greens "real" position. They try to paint the Greens as eco-libertarians, and that good leftish voters have no business voting for them.

I can imagine this strategy is being less successful this time around for a number of reasons. Firstly, this is the first election in which the Greens have actually gotten publicity and coverage, so voters who have decided to vote Green are probably aware and agree with the Green platform, as opposed to just the Green brand. Secondly, given that the rise in Green numbers hasn't been matched in a fall in NDP numbers, many voters who will be voting Green this election are likely Conservative voters turned off by faith based, or Dalton disliking Liberals, who are attracted to the Green's eco-capitalist ideas and emphasis on fiscal responsibility, so they wouldn't be attracted towards the NDP anyway. Having to deal with the Greens is probably the last thing Hampton and the NDP want at this point in the campaign, as they want to try to pick up leftish Liberals voters and maybe disgruntled Tory's who want to cast a protest vote in narrow ridings. For the Greens, any publicity is good publicity, and expect de Jong to continue to attack the NDP for the next couple of days to try and get Hampton off message.

"NegaTory" and "HoJo" continues lack of leadership, energy edition

So John Tory is continuing his relentlessly negative campaign, and after putting out ads more or less accusing Dalton of murdering every child in Ontario, now he is attacking the Liberals energy record and plans. The Liberal plan for energy supply is one of balance and moderation, which ensures that Ontario has both green and effective power, and that we can remain a net exporter of power. Howard Hampton on the other hand, wants to phase out nuclear power (read: protect his voter base from the Greens) removing 50% of our energy supplies and create a massive make-work program for his home area in the form of a non-profit hydro corporation. The Conservatives, on the other hand, would like to work around federal environmental legislation, and push for more and more nuclear power, while being critical of the Liberal record on the nuclear file. Of course, the real kicker of Tory's power platform comes from 24 Hours this morning:

"Details of the Conservative plan were scant. Tory wouldn't say how much nuclear power the province should have or how we planned to dispose of the radioactive waste."

Par for the course for NegaTory, attack, attack, attack, but pray no one dares to ask policy questions. Of course, he did work on Kim Campbell's campaign, which in addition to airing the most vile political attack ad ever (green lighted by Tory himself), gave us the famous "Elections are no time to discuss policy" quote. Seems Tory hasn't changed gears much since 1993.

Debate confirms what we all knew

Dalton's opening video, where he honestly and realistically talked about the shortcomings of his government took a lot out of the wind of Hampton's (but particularly Tory's) sails. Dalton presented himself as the best leader to keep moving Ontario forward, while admitting areas in which the Liberal Party well short. Tory, who continues to rely overwhelmingly on negativity and attacking Dalton, was left repeating the same talking points over and over again, with zero mention of his own platform, save having to defend his half baked plans for faith based education and two tier health care. Hampton looked rattled early on, but managed to gain strength as the debate went on, but failed to deliver more than glancing blows on issues he should have owned, such as manufacturing job loss and tuition fees.

Southwestern Ontario Liberal collected some of the best media reaction quotes, and they deserve a re-post here:

“Either way, the Liberals are stronger on education than the Tories, who get stuck with dealing with the faith-based school issue. Call it an early Dalton lead.”- Toronto Sun

“McGuinty's opening video: Admits right off the bat why he broke his tax pledge. Smart.”- Dan Cook, Globe and Mail

“[McGuinty] pointed out quite efficiently that the NDP energy position is insane.”- Adam Radwanski, Globe and Mail

“[I] credit Dalton for bridging back to his message.”- Guy Giorno, former Mike Harris Chief of Staff, National Post

“McGuinty's making a decent case for his government having invested well in [post-secondary education].”- Adam Radwanski, Globe and Mail

http://southwesternontarioliberal.blogspot.com/2007/09/ontario-leaders-debate-my-favourite.html

Big thanks to her for collecting these!