What can the results of the last Ontario PC leadership race tell us about the current one? That Elliott could be hard to beat

Long-time readers will remember when I did some fairly in-depth coverage of the 2009 Ontario PC leadership race. I was reading over some blog posts from that era, bit of a trip down memory lane. I kind of forgot Hudak's big selling point to grassroots conservatives was pledging to eliminate Human Rights Tribunals, Christine Elliott running on a flat tax to increase her appeal beyond just red Tories, and of course Hudak Bingo!

The map at the top of this post shows the first round results from the 2009 leadership results, coloured in by which candidate won plurality support in each riding. As a reminder, the PC's used a weighted one member one vote system, so every riding had equal support, from Conservative strongholds in rural Ontario to weak seats in downtown Toronto that even during a leadership race might only have a few dozen members. Hudak is in dark blue, Klees is in light blue, Elliott in green, Hillier in red. You can expand the map by clicking on it.

So, looking at these results, (and my analysis from 2009) what can we learn from the 2009 race that might be applicable to the current Ontario PC race?

• Elliott, the presumptive front-runner has an advantage in the 905/416, since no other serious candidate from the area seems likely to enter the race. Looking at the results from 2009, Frank Klees was very successful in signing up new members from cultural communities in the 905, as he dominated Peel region, his home York region, and the suburbs of Toronto. Elliott did well in most of the downtown core and her home base of Durham region, but was unable to make gains in a lot of the inner 905 belt. With no other serious candidate likely to emerge from Toronto/905, Elliott could dominate much of the GTA, which would go a long way to help establish her front-runner credentials
• Breaking into the GTA will be the challenge for any of the other potential candidates, who would all have somewhat of a regional base, but would likely have to dominate their home bases. Lisa Macleod, Vic Fedeli and Monte McNaughton would have home bases in the East, North and Southwest respectively. Now, in 2009 Tim Hudak was able to win the leadership without doing particularly well in the GTA (he won a few scattered seats and split Halton region with Elliot) because in large part he dominated his home base of Niagara/Southern Ontario, but he also had strong results in Northern Ontario and in more rural ridings across the other parts of the province as well. Having favourite sons/daughters from each of the North, Southwest and East could make it difficult for any of them to establish province-wide movements, although I could see Lisa Macleod, who has toured the province pretty extensively and has been fairly high profile as opposition MPPs go being perhaps best suited to pull it off. 
• If Macleod might be the strongest candidate against Elliott, she'll have to take some caution from looking at these maps. Presumably she would be the Eastern Ontario favourite daughter, and that means she would need to build a coalition of PC supporters ranging from downtown Ottawa moderates to Randy Hillier supporters from the rural areas. Macleod might have to tack to the right both to rally the non insignificant numbers of very conservative conservatives in Eastern Ontario, but also to try and establish a solid Blue Tory vs. Red Tory match-up against Elliott to establish her credentials as the main right-of-Elliott candidate. 
• Monte McNaughton, who could be a Southern/Southwestern Ontario favourite son was also a champion of right-to-work legislation that caused Hudak some headaches but also could endear him to the more conservative minded activists who are important in leadership races. With Monte needing to dominate Southwestern Ontario to establish himself as a legitimate contender, and Macleod needing to target rural Southwestern conservatives to establish herself as the main right-wing contender against Elliott, the membership sign up and organizational battles that could happen between Macleod and McNaughton in that part of the province could be interesting
• With that in mind, Elliott has the clearest path to victory: Dominate the GTA, and hold her own in other parts of the province. MPP endorsements don't mean everything  (MPP endorsements can have a pretty big range of importance on the local membership base, sometimes big, sometimes not so much) but that she has endorsements already from MPPs from her home competitors bases (Norm Miller from Northern Ontario, Todd Smith from Eastern Ontario, Jeff Yurek and Michael Harris from the Southwest amongst others) bodes well.

Where does Hudak Niagara Falls candidate Bart Maves stand on right to work?

We know Hudak has no tolerance for his own candidates standing up for local jobs in the face of his reckless right-to-work-for-less scheming and Bart Maves himself used to be opposed to the policy?

So what does Bart Maves stand for now?

It's a question worth asking. In a debate this evening, Maves repeatedly talked about the need for "worker choice", but hesitated to actually endorse Hudak's position, which Hudak has insisted he stands by and expects his candidates to support.

With the Hudak and Bart Maves standing behind a reckless right to work for less scheme, and the NDP murky on important issues like the minimum wage, only Ontario Liberals are clearly supporting Ontario workers.

PC candidates and MPPs flee from Hudak's leadership

Hudak is down two candidates, with his candidates in Hamilton Mountain and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek resigning. This of course, comes hot on the heels of PC candidate Dave Brister getting the boot for standing up for his constituents and standing up to Hudak and his reckless "right to work for less" schemes, Hudak's Finance spokesperson Peter Shurman resigning as an MPP after billing you for his second home, and long time MPP and frontbench critic Frank Klees announcing his retirement rather than running for Hudak a second time.

Oh, and Gila Martow, the new Hudak candidate in Thornhill? In addition to contradicting Hudak and supporting subway taxes, she showed how out of touch she is by stating that "I don’t think that, especially in the Thornhill riding, there’s too many families... that are working ­— the parents ­— at real minimum-wage jobs"

Thornhill PC candidate Gila Martow supports subway taxes, undercuts Hudak's policy

After trying and failing to land a star candidate, Tim Hudak has settled for former Conservative riding association president Gila Martow as his candidate in Thornhill to replace his Finance spokesperson Peter Shurman, who resigned after billing you $20 grand to pay for a second home while living 150 kilometers outside a his riding, which is only a half-hour drive from Queen's Park.

As a GTA seat, transit will almost certainly be a hot issue, and while it isn't surprising to see Hudak and his backroom boys pushing a dubious "we'll build massive infrastructure projects for free" line, Hudak's candidate doesn't seem to buy it, suggesting not just one, but two different subway taxes.

Ontario needs dedicated revenue tools to help make transit upgrades to create jobs and reduce gridlock a reality. Hudak's candidate Gila Martow seems to realize that, even if Hudak doesn't. This by-election campaign, will Ms. Martow stand behind her support for revenue tools, or will she flip-flop and support Tim Hudak's unrealistic schemes?

More shots fired in Ontario PC civil war as Education Critic Lisa MacLeod savages Transportation Critic Frank Klees on Twitter

As the Ontario PC civil war over Tim Hudak's continued leadership rages on, here is what PC Education Critic (and many say potential future leadership candidate Lisa MacLeod) had to say to her fellow PC frontbencher and Transportation Critic Frank Klees.

Next time the Hudak PC's ask to be taken seriously on the transit file, remember that this is the opinion his Transportation critic is held in by one of his highest profile MPPs.

Hudak PC candidate: Female voters are "less informed"...including about control over their own bodies?

That's Wayne Wettlaufer, former PC MPP who served with Hudak and Mike Harris running to win his seat of Kitchener Centre back for the Conservatives.

Wettlaufer also must think women aren't informed enough to have control over their own bodies (also noteworthy a little guy named Tim Hudak as well several currently serving Hudak Conservative MPPs are also mentioned here)

"Several notable MPPs (all Tories) have demonstrated a commitment to respect the sanctity of life and the institution of the traditional family. Among them are Jim Brown (Scarborough Agincourt), Tim Hudak (Erie-Lincoln), Frank Klees (Oak Ridges), John O’Toole (Durham), Frank Sheehan (Niagara Centre), Wayne Wettlaufer (Kitchener Centre), and Bob Wood (London West). These pro-life MPPs have submitted numerous petitions to the legislature, thus bringing attention to important issues such as the need for conscience legislation, calls to eliminate taxpayer funding of abortion, the need to protect the rights of parents in areas such as health care and education, and opposition to the expansion of gambling. Without the commitment of these pro-life MPPs, these issues might not have been brought up on the floor of the legislature.

In response to the 1995 Campaign Life Coalition candidate’s questionnaire, these seven MPPs generally supported measures that would protect the unborn and regulate abortion, including ending taxpayer funding of abortuaries, consent to treatment changes and measures to provide for informed consent. Hudak...wrote, “I believe that it is the government’s role to... encourage women to carry the babies to term."  They have put their votes where their rhetoric is. Each of the MPPs voted for Bill 91, an act to provide for parental consultation under the Health Care Consent Act of 1996." 

Hudak Conservatives fined $85,000 for "rule breaking robocalls"

I hear he knows a guy who knows a guy though