Simcoe-Grey nomination news

Of course, the big nomination news from Simcoe-Grey today is that Kellie Leitch, who had long been rumoured to be interested in the Tory nomination will officially enter the race, with a campaign kick off event featuring such luminaries as former Ontario Premier Bill Davis (interesting that the Tories would roll out a high profile Red Tory) and Jim Flaherty. Collingwood mayor Chris Carrier has previously declared for the nomination, and it will be interesting to see if he gets any pressure to drop out in favour of a bigger name candidate. Considering that normally the mayor of Collingwood would be a decently "name" candidate in the riding (Collingwood is the 3rd largest town in the riding), it will be interesting to see how those dynamics work out.

Aside from the Tories, however, the local Greens also will be needing a candidate, as Stuart Starbuck, who had been nominated to run in the next election, has stepped aside to take a run at municipal office. With Green Party of Ontario leader Mike Schreiner running provincially in Simcoe-Grey, the party might try and find a strong candidate to help build up the Green brand.

Nomination news from the West

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/mla-lamoureux-to-seek-nomination-for-federal-seat-91014009.html

Liberal MLA Kevin Lamoureux confirmed the rumours, and will run for the federal Liberal nomination in Winnipeg North. Roldan Sevillano Jr., who had been nominated as the federal candidate back in November, is stepping down to run for a provincial seat.

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/news/Councillor+gets+Liberal+nomination/2913674/story.html
Saskatoon city councillor Darren Hill won the Liberal nomination in Saskatoon-Humboldt last night, defeating Susan Hayton, a local physician.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/news/90621644.html

Sparwood Mayor David Wilks has declared his intention to go after the Tory nomination in Kootenay-Columbia, with incumbent Conservative MP Jim Abbott stepping down next election.

http://www.kamloopsnews.ca/article/20100414/KAMLOOPS0101/304149960/-1/KAMLOOPS01/green-nominee-has-eye-on-commons-vote

Staying in BC, local carpenter Kevin Ortner is expected to be acclaimed for the Green Party in Kamloops – Thompson – Cariboo this Sunday.

By-election analysis

Nomination news has slowed to a crawl with an election now being far on the horizon in seems, but there are the 4 by-elections coming up, so I'm going to break down each parties best and worst case scenario (within reason) for the parties.

Conservatives

The best case scenario for the Conservatives would be winning back the bedrock Tory riding of Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley (which outside of Casey being elected as an independent in 2008 and Casey losing his seat in the 1993 wipeout, hasn't elected a non-Tory since the 50's) by a healthy margin over a the NDP, which looks to capitalize on the popularity of the provincial NDP, which won the popular vote and 3 of the 5 provincial ridings that make up the federal riding, a strong second place finish in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup (actually winning the seat is I think unrealistic), flipping New Westminster – Coquitlam from NDP to Tory, and getting 10% of the vote and getting the deposit back in Hochelaga, which like most East-End Montreal ridings are not fertile ground for the Conservatives. Worst case scenario, the NDP GOTV operation in CCMV turns out to be hugely effective, and the Dippers pull off an upset, the Liberals finish ahead of the Tories in MLKR with the BQ winning easily, the popularity of Donnally and HST anger propels a distant Tory finish in NWC, and Hochelaga delivers a -10% return.

NDP

The NDP go into the by-elections with high hopes, with a best case scenario being an upset in CCMV for Mark Austin, Fin Donnally comfortably holding NWC, a second place finish ahead of the Liberals in Hochelaga (they have been targetting the BQ working class vote heavily), and at least getting on the radar in MLKR, as they only won 5.5% of the vote last time around. Worst case scenario, the Tories survive comfortably with a local candidate in CCMV, putting the damper on hopes of an NDP Atlantic breakthrough, the economy first/tough on crime message of Dilworth flips NWC into the Tory column, attacks on the BQ fall flat in Hochelaga, leaving them stuck in 3rd place, and stay off the radar in MLKR.

Liberals

It's difficult to do a best case and worst case scenario for the Liberals while staying in the bounds of realism for these ridings, as none of them are Liberal friendly (to put it in perspective, in 3 of the 4 ridings last election, the Liberals didn't win a single poll in the riding, with Hochelaga returning the only Liberal polls, and not many). When I did an earlier analysis when the Liberals were doing about 10 points better in the polls than they are now I still didn't have them even coming within sniffing distance of winning, yet something tells me that after the Liberals return empty handed in terms of seat gains for this round we can expect another round of articles predicting Iggy's demise, overlooking the fact that it would be difficult to pick 4 ridings less likely to return Liberal victories outside of the rural Praries. Anyway, best case Liberal scenario, retaining second place in Hochelaga, finishing ahead of the Tories in MLRK, getting back to 10%+ (they finished in 4th with 8.5% last time), in CCMV and raise the vote in NWC to a more historically normal 20% or so. Worst case, they finish a distant third in MLRK, get jumped by the NDP in Hochelaga, finish -10% in both CCMV and NWC.

BQ

The BQ go in defending two seats, both of which are neither on a knife edge, but we can still form a best/worst case scenario. Best case is Daniel Paille continuing Real Menard's dominance of Hochelaga, with the Liberals finishing ahead of the NDP, damaging NDP hopes of prying working class francophone support from them, and comfortably holding MLRK over the Tories. Worst case, the NDP gives them a scare in Hochelaga, and the Tory GOTV operation pulls off an upset in MLRK. Hochelaga will be interesting to watch given an increasingly nasty back and forth between the BQ and NDP, with the NDP launching this attack site: http://www.blocageintermittent.ca/ and putting these posters up:

attacking Paille for his former ties to the Conservative government, which was countered by the BQ attacking NDP MP's for supporting getting rid of the gun registry with this rather brutal poster:

Greens

The Greens really have no stake either way in this round of by-elections, not running a candidate in CCMV last election and gaining between 2-7% in the other 3. If they could break 10% in NWC, which gave them 7% last time around it would be nice for them, but since they really have nowhere to go in the Quebec ones, up or down, and not running a candidate in CCMV makes direct comparisons difficult, this one is sort of a write off, analysis wise.

NDP/Green Nomination News

http://www.amherstdaily.com/index.cfm?sid=290539&sc=58

The NDP have a candidate in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, which is on the way to having a by-election unless a federal election happens. The nomination was going to be contested, but 2008 candidate Karen Olsen has stood aside for Mark Austin, a local farmer. The NDP is hoping to make gains of the back of the provincial NDP's victory in the recent election, which delivered Atlantic Canada's first NDP government, with the NS NDP winning 3 of the 5 ridings which make up CCMV.

http://www.westislandchronicle.com/article-382575-Greens-campaigning-two-elections-ahead.html
A few Green candidate names in Quebec I haven't seen before, Ryan Young in Lac St. Louis and Jonathan Lumer in Pierrefonds-Dollard. 2008 candidate Peter Graham, who ran in Lac St. Louis, is heading to the Eastern Townships to run in Compton-Stanstead.

Nomination news

http://www.madhunt.com/starbuck-greenpart-20090929.htm

The Greens have a candidate in Simcoe-Grey, Stuart Starbuck, a former town councillor.

http://www.thewhig.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1773194

Sticking with the Greens and rural Ontario, they will have a contested nomination in Leeds-Grenville. The 2 declared candidates aren't named, but 2008 candidate Jeanie Warnock will not be one of them.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/702396

And of course, the big news, with Gordon Landon stepping down as Tory candidate for Markham-Unionville after he admitted that federal funding to fight the recession was being withheld from the riding for the high crime of elected a Liberal MP.

Nomination news, early addition

A couple of Liberal nominations tonight, but here is some other news:

http://www.bclocalnews.com/news/59075377.html

Micheal Crawford is running for the NDP in Kamloops – Thompson – Cariboo again. Crawford ran strong campaigns in both 2008 and 2006, but was unable to overcome the Tory candidate, even with a collapse of the Liberal vote in 2008. The article also says 2008 Green candidate Donovan Cavers will be the Green candidate again. No word on a Liberal yet.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/tri_city_maple_ridge/mapleridgenews/news/58602817.html

Staying in BC and the NDP, David Murray, a parks and services employee with the City of Port Coquitlam has declared for the NDP nomination in Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission. The riding saw close NDP-Conservative races in 2004 an 2006, with the Tories narrowly holding, before expanding their lead on the back of a collapse in the Liberal vote, which saw the Liberals sink to 4th in the riding.

http://www.xtra.ca/public/Vancouver/Ignoring_queer_vote_the_way_to_win_Vancouver_Centre_Tory_candidate-7475.aspx

More from BC, this article describes Rachel Greenfeld as the "newly anointed" Tory candidate, as well as being critical of her statements that she doesn't need the support of the queer community to win the riding. Vancouver Centre has one of the largest gay communities in the country.

http://news.guelphmercury.com/News/article/532166

And getting out of BC, the Green nomination campaign in Guelph, arguably the most Green Party friendly riding in the country is starting to roll, with two candidate looking to replace Mike Nagy; Russell Ott, a 23 year old originally from Guelph and former class representitive at Brock U, and Bill Hulet, a U of G library employee and former Green candidate both federally and provincially.

http://www.arrondissement.com/tout-get-communiques/t1/pc1/u10248-massimo-pacetti-declare-candidat-parti-liberal-canada-dans-saint-leonard-saint-michel

The Liberal Quebec machine rolls on, with incumbant MP Massimo Pacetti was renominated in Saint-Léonard – Saint-Michel.

Pre-big day nomination news

The big news will be coming tomorrow, when the Ottawa Centre nomination gets decided, but to tide you over before that, here we go:



http://www.canada.com/news/Opposition+dancing+election+tune/1973312/story.html


The BQ, who looks like they won't prop up the Tories as some had thought, say they have "nominated candidates in 67 out of Quebec's 75 ridings". Of course, as Alice from Pundits Guide has pointed out, a party's definition of nominated can differ from the legal definition, so the 67 number probably means a combination of including all incumbants who are running again, already nominated candidates, active nomination races, and identified nomination candidates.



http://www.bclocalnews.com/vancouver_island_south/saanichnews/news/57795972.html



Green Party leader Elizabeth May will face off against Victoria resident and past NDP/Green provincial candidate Stuart Hertzog for the Saanich-Gulf Island nomination on Sept. 19th. Liberals will pick a candidate on the 12th, while the NDP, who have yet to have names publically come forward, will nominate in October.



http://www.tbnewswatch.com/News/?cid=65026



News of a candidate not running in Northern Ontario, as 2008 Tory candidate Richard Neumann is taking a pass at Thunder Bay – Rainy River.



http://lfpress.ca/perl-bin/publish.cgi?x=articles&p=274431&s=politics



A few days after incumbant NDP MP Irene Mathyssen was re-nominated, a Liberal challenger has emerged, with London city councillor Roger Caranci annoucing he will be going for the Liberal nomination in London-Fanshawe. The article is chock full of London-area news for every party that I hadn't seen before.


For the Conservatives, Susan Truppe, director of sales and marketing at a London hotel has filled papers for London North Centre, with lawyer Chris Tochar considering a run. For the NDP, Peter Ferguson will probably seek the NDP nomination again in London West. And for the Liberals, Ken Filson and Emery Huszka will duke it out for the Chatham-Kent-Essex nomination.

http://lafrontiere.canoe.ca/webapp/sitepages/content.asp?contentid=106941&id=288

The Liberals will need to get a new candidate in Abitibi-Témiscamingue, as former MP Gilbert Barrette, (elected in a 2003 by-election before being defeated in 2004, Barrette also ran in 2008) has expressed a desire to move on from politics. The riding has had been an interesting one over the years, going from Creditiste stronghold (being held by Réal Caouette from 1962 to 1976, and then an additional few years by his son Gilles), then going Liberal for a term in the 80's before the Mulroney PC's picked it up, but not without a strong challenge from NDP star candidate and future Parti Quebecois cabinet minister Remy Trudel who came within 4,000 votes of winning the seat in 1988, then breaking BQ with the exception of Barrette's by-election victory.

Another day, more nomination news

Two great Liberal candidates won their respective nominations in the Ottawa area last night; Steve MacKinnion in Gatineau, and Julie Bourgeois in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell. I was particularly pleased with Julie's victory, as I was out in GPR last night to support her campaign. Moving on to other news:

http://www.newsdurhamregion.com/news/article/134870
The Greens have a candidate in Pickering-Scarborough East, Dell technology marketing manager Kevin Smith. 2008 Tory candidate George Khouri is also "absolutely considering" running again but is not fully decided. The riding is held by Liberal Dan McTeague.

http://www.medicinehatnews.com/content/view/131770/65/
Out west in the Tory stronghold of Medicine Hat, 2008 Liberal candidate and riding association president Bev Botter is undecided about running again, but long time NDP candidate Wally Regehr will not be running again.

More Golden Horseshoe nomination news

This article on nomination and election prep in the Golden Horseshoe is chock full of news for every party:

http://www.thespec.com/News/Local/article/616006

For the Liberals, Dan McLean will be acclaimed tomorrow for the riding of Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, and former Hamilton mayor and 2008 Hamilton Larry Di Ianni confirming he is still "in the mix" for the Hamilton East-Stoney Creek nomination. The article also has a couple Tory names I hadn't heard as being candidates again, 2008 candidate Terry Anderson in Hamilton Mountain and James Byron in Hamilton Centre. The Greens have a new name in ADFW, with Peter Ormond going for the nomiantion.

Tories advertise for the Greens

We've all seen the new image on the Tory website, with Harper talking intently to a young man in a Tim Hortons. Why, this young man, who seems so earnest and clean cut, must be a Tory! Particularly, if he is on the Tory website. I mean, you wouldn't think the Conservatives would be so stupid as to put a non Conservative supporter on the front banner, do you?

Well, given the Conservatives' skill at handling things like the economy, th , it shouldn't be a surprise that the Liberal Bag can tell you that the "Coffee Man" is not, in fact a Conservative hack. He is, in fact, my good friend Chris, the President of the Carleton University Young Greens.

Chris was campaigning to get funding for a community project in Labrador. Harper happened to cross paths with him at a local Tim Hortons, bought him coffee, and listened to Chris about the project. Chris said that Harper listened to him, while the staffers took a bunch of pictures, and then Harper got out of Labrador, never to be seen again.

So there you go, The Harper Conservatives: Strong Leadership, weak fact checking.