http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20071026/sorbara_leaving_cabinet_071026/20071026?hub=QPeriodWow. This comes as a pretty big
surprise.
Sorbara, who is a close ally of
McGuinty, and basically saved his ass after the 99' election, seemed pretty secure in his spot as Finance Minister, particularly after running the very successful re-election campaign.
Sorbara said he "wants to spend time with his family", which could either be very true, or be a
euphemism. While it is still too early to tell what
Sorbara's resignation could mean from a policy perspective, to me, it raises two key points:
1. With
McGuinty's closest
cabinet ally quiting, is that a sign the next leadership race might be starting sooner than we think? I don't think
Sorbara has an interest in being party leader/Premier, so I don't think he himself would make a run, but his departure could be a sign that the "old guard" of the party wants to make a peaceful exit before the gritty stuff happens. I do think that
McGuinty, whose personal popularity is below that of the party and the Liberal brand, will probably want to pull a Bill Davis, and step down as leader whenever the polls are showing he is really popular, but I don't see that happening for at least a couple of years. As
Sorbara was the 2
nd in command, and such a close ally of
McGuinty, it is hard to imagine anyone could muscle him out but
McGuinty, and no reason why
McGuinty would want to remove him is apparent.
2. The new
cabinet will be wide open. Ian Urquhart wrote (
http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/269115) about how
Smithermann would be the key character in any
cabinent shuffle, and that if
Smithermann wanted to stay at Health, the
cabinet would retain much of its current make-up, but if he wanted to move to another portfolio (the article discusses Environment)
in preparation for a run for either party leadership, or for Mayor of Toronto, that would be a sign the
cabinet would be more wide open. With
Sorbara gone however, even if
Smithermann does want to stay at Health, I think we can expect more of a major shuffle. The media buzz has focused on some of the more high-profile rookies, including
Margarett Best in Scarborough-
Guildwood, Sophia
Aggelonitis in Hamilton Mountain, and my man Charles Sousa in Mississauga-South. I think Sophia is a good bet, being both a woman, and a Liberal in Hamilton, which is an
NDP area, and Charles has a good shot too, since he won a traditionally PC seat that was supposed to be close so overwhelmingly, combined with media speculation about
Harinder Takhar losing his portfolio, and the need to have a
cabinet minister from Mississauga. I think that it is a safe bet that irregardless of what happens to
Takhar, a Portuguese guy from Mississauga will be in
cabinet, meaning either Charles in the South to both consolidate the gains made in a traditionally PC seat, and reward him for his victory, or Peter
Fonseca, who has
seniority over Sousa and has built himself a very nice power base and a safe seat in Mississauga East-
Cooksville.
Outside Mississauga, look for former federal
cabinet minister Aileen Carroll, who picked up Barrie, (the seat she used to represent federally) from the
PC's, to be a fairly safe bet to get into
cabinet. Kevin Flynn in
Oakville has a shot, as does Deb Matthews, particularly as with the defeat of Caroline Di
Cocco, the Liberals have a female, South-Western gap to fill. I also think that Kathleen Wynne, fresh of the victory over John Tory, might be a dark horse to get a promotion to finance minister. And be sure to watch the big names that have leadership whispers around them; Jim Watson, George
Smithermann, Michael Bryant, and Dwight Duncan.
