Jim Watson running for mayor: report (and bonus by-election speculation!)

http://ottawa.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20100111/OTT_Watson_100111/20100111/?hub=OttawaHome

Former Ottawa mayor and current provincial cabinet minister and MPP for Ottawa West-Nepean Jim Watson will reportedly declare his intentions to resign from cabinet and run for mayor. The Ottawa Citizen today said that Watson would be a front-runner, and I agree. Watson has high name recognition from his days as mayor (when he won 83% of the pre-amalgamated city vote) and currently serving as a MPP and cabinet minister. Watson won over 50% of the vote in his Ottawa West-Nepean riding in 2007, and increase from his 2003 election. With a strong record of socially progressive but fiscal responsible policies, Watson will have strong appeal both in the city core that gave him 83% of the vote pre-amalgamation, and in the more suburban and rural area. Watson has my thumbs up for mayor and I look forward to working on his campaign.

With Watson gone from provincial politics, lets open the door to one of this blogs favourite subjects: nomination speculation! With this by-election probably being a two-way race between the Liberals and PC's, I'll focus on them. Note that this list is by no means exhaustive.

Liberals

Bob Chiarelli: A former mayor himself and a previous member for the Ottawa West area, Chiarelli will probably be in the conversation. Since his defeat as mayor, he has remained active in local Liberal circles, campaigning for Liberal candidates in the 2007 provincial election, showing interest in the federal Ottawa West-Nepean nomination, and getting involved in local nomination campaigns on the federal level for the next election. In his two runs for mayor, Chiarelli carried the Ottawa West-Nepean area in 03, but not in 06.

Rick Chiarelli: Staying in the family, Bob's cousin Rick, a current city councillor, is another possibility. Rick ran unsuccessful for the Liberals in 1999, after former MPP and current mayoral candidate Alex Cullen crossed the floor to the NDP. Chiarelli is popular in his local Nepean area ward, winning almost 60% on his inital run in 2000, getting acclaimed in 2003, and winning 72% in 2006. Bob has higher name recognition, but Rick might have less baggage.

Cyrus Reporter: Longtime Liberal activist and insider, as well as would be Dominic LeBlanc leadership bid head, Reporter was the subject of "Draft Cyrus" rumours last Ottawa Centre federal nomination that ultimately came to nothing. Reporter still has plenty of connections and hasn't hid intentions to run for something someday, could this be his chance?

Janet Yale: Defeated Ottawa Centre federal nomination contestant, Yale originally considered running in Ottawa West-Nepean and challenging David Pratt, but settled on Ottawa Centre, losing to Scott Bradley. Yale ran a solid campaign for the nomination and I've seen her at a more than a couple Liberal events since her loss, and her technocratic background could be a good fit for the suburban riding, particularly if she can appeal to female voters.

Lee Farnworth: Another potential female candidate, Farnworth ran for the federal Liberals in 2006 but was defeated by John Baird. Farnworth served as a Nepean city councillor from 1994-2000, and has been active in the NGO sector. In addition to this, she has taught at the in-riding Algonquin College for nearly 2 decades.

Nour El Kadri: Sticking with the professor theme, Kadri is a eBusiness and Computer Science prof at the University of Ottawa. Kadri had organized a run for the federal Liberal nomination in Ottawa West-Nepean last time around before the appointment of David Pratt. Kadri apparently sold several hundred memberships, and if he still has his contact network, could potentially be a formidable candidate.


Progressive Conservatives

Unlike St. Paul's and Toronto Centre, the PC's stand a fighting chance in this riding, so candidate selection will be crucial.

Mike Patton: 2007 PC candidate, Patton ran into a spot of trouble over his resume during the campaign, when he was accused by Watson and former Nepean mayor Mary Pitt of embellishing his resume during his run, which may have contributed to the PC's losing votes in the riding. Prior to his run, he served as a spokesperson for Larry O'Brien as well as working for then federal PC leader Jean Charest and a parachute campaign running for the PC's in Labrador in 1997. Probably still has local connections, but the rumours of his resume fudging could be baggage, and after running socially liberal candidates in St. Paul's and Toronto Centre, will the PC base be happy with another Red Tory candidate?

Sean Casey: 2004 federal Conservative candidate. Casey nearly defeated incumbant Liberal Marlene Catterall when he ran. He is currently a partner at True North Public Affairs, a public policy firm, (which on a purely personal note, also employs former BPAPM student Mark Ruban as a consultant, go Kroeger Kids) and was a Tory insider and staffer prior to his run. The Ottawa Citizen endorsed him in his 2004 run and he was generally expected to win before the Tories suffered a late campaign drop in numbers. He was generally seen as being more of a Blue Tory, and might fit the Hudak mold, although a relatively low profile post-2004 might hurt.

Walter Robinson: Potentially the biggest "star" the Tories could nab, assuming he doesn't run for mayor himself, as some have speculated. Robinson ran as a star candidate for the federal Tories in 2004, unexpectedly losing to Marc Godbout in Ottawa-Orleans. A former director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, Robinson also has big links to the O'Brien administration, serving as Chief of Staff to the mayor until stepping down in mid-2007, and is currently serving as a lobbyist.

Terry Kilrea: Before anyone says anything, yes, it is difficult to form a list of high-profile Tories who don't have connections to O'Brien in the Ottawa area. Former federal Tory nomination candidate, 2003 candidate for mayor, and 2006 city council candidate, Kilrea has obvious baggage but has name recognition.

With so many potential high-profile Ottawa Tories having baggage one way or the other towards O'Brien, I think the appointment of a candidate not listed above is certainly possible, or the PC's might hope that O'Brien's popularity is still decent enough in the suburban parts of the city that an association with him isn't a draw-back. McGuinty has a habit of calling by-elections quickly, so whenever Watson resigns from Queen's Park (I've only seen reports of him saying he will step down from cabinet, none explicitly saying that he will resign completely, but odds would be that pressure would be on him to step down sooner rather than later I think) the two major parties should be fast to get the campaign machines rolling.

Pam Taylor on "Change"

PC leader Tim Hudak announced that 2007 candidate Pam Taylor will indeed be running for the PC's in the Toronto Centre by-election. In her candidate statement, Pam Taylor says she wants to bring "real change" to Toronto Centre. However, the only thing that Pam Taylor and the PC's offer in terms of "change" for Toronto Centre is her flop-flopping on social positions and running for an Ontario PC Party that wants to move Toronto Centre and Ontario backwards.

Let's review:

In 2007, Pam Taylor said "This party has absolutely nothing to do with [former Conservative premier] Mike Harris," she insists. "I would not have been knocking on doors for Mike Harris."

In 2010, Pam Taylor is running for a PC Party lead by the Mike Harris endorsed Tim Hudak, who proudly sat in the Harris cabinet when our schools were being shut down and our water was being polluted.

In 2007, Pam Taylor said Part of our strategy now is to be inclusive."

In 2010, Pam Taylor is now running for the Mike Harris 2.0 Tim Hudak PC's, who want to disband the Ontario Human Rights Tribunal and put the rights of vulnerable citizens at risk. Tim Hudak voted for Bill 91 in 1996, which would have greatly interfered with a woman's right to choose.

In 2007, Pam Taylor said in regards to protecting GLBTQ youth schools should educate students about queer realities.

"We need education within education," she says. "Most of the behaviour we see that we find regrettable comes from ignorance. We need to have part of curriculum be a place to talk about these issues.

In 2010, Pam Taylor is running for the Tim Hudak PC's, when Tim Hudak was part of the Harris government that attacked our public schools and brought education in this province to the brink. Tim Hudak was a loud supporter of faith-based funding for private schools.

In 2007, Pam Taylor had this to say about trans rights: "I would like to see the addition of language to the Human Rights Code to protect the trans group," she says. "As for surgery, everything I have heard suggests it should be supported. The party hasn't taken a stand but in terms of relisting the cost of each surgery may be high but the numbers are low. You can't listen to the stories and not feel compassion. There was something inherently unfair about the delisting....We will need better long-term care, better drug plans. The trans population may need separate facilities."
"

In 2010, Pam Taylor is running for the Tim Hudak PC's, when Tim Hudak was part of the PC government that de-listed surgery. Tim Hudak is not only against adding trans rights to the Human Rights Code, he wants to abolish the Human Rights Tribunal.

In 2007, Pam Taylor said "We don't play favourites...The hallmark is compassion and inclusiveness"

In 2010, Pam Taylor is running for Tim Hudak, who was endorsed by Randy Hillier for leader. Hillier called the openly gay former MPP for Toronto Centre, George Smitherman, the anti-gay slur "bugger" during a debate. In Randy Hillier's and Tim Hudak's Ontario, public funded health care professionals would be able to reject providing public health services to the citizens of Ontario based on their own moral prejudice, and have tax-payer funded marriage commissioners to refuse services to same sex couples, a slap in the face to established equal marriage law. Hillier's leadership bid was managed by social conservative activist Tristan Emmanuel, who is in favour of the death penalty for eleven-year olds, organized a Canadians who Bush rally, which Tim Hudak attended, described gay men as "sexual deviants", and homosexuality as "the wrong choice, a bad choice", described Islam as being "as far from peace, as hell is from heaven". Hillier's reward for his 18th century views? Being named the PC Labour critic, giving him a platform to vent his homophobic views.

When Tim Hudak and Pam Taylor talk about "change" for Toronto Centre, what do they really mean?

How will Pam Taylor answer to...Pam Taylor?

Word is out that 2007 Tory candidate Pam Taylor is looking to run again for the PC's in Toronto Centre. Assuming no other candidate comes forward, this would be the second time the Hudak PC's have thrown a socially liberal female candidate into the mix in a Toronto riding, following Sue-Ann Levy's angry but unsuccessful campaign in St. Paul's.

Taylor is firmly on the Red Tory side of the party, being a close ally of John Tory and playing an active role in Christine Elliott's leadership bid. In fact, she was so critical of Blue Tories and the Harris Tories that she told Xtra.ca during her 2007 Toronto Centre bid that;

http://www.xtra.ca/public/Toronto/Toronto_Centre_candidates_on_the_stump-3681.aspx

"This party has absolutely nothing to do with [former Conservative premier] Mike Harris," she insists."

Really? Mike Harris must be pretty terrible, I doubt she would run for a PC Party that took inspiration from him...

http://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/article/640343
"Ex-premier says Hudak has 'common sense' needed to lead province"

Oh wait. I think this Youtube video says it well: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9tvBfcoLjU

But thats not all Taylor said, not only did she consider the John Tory PC's much better than the Harris PC's, she said;

"I would not have been knocking on doors for Mike Harris. Part of our strategy now is to be inclusive. We don't play favourites, we don't fund things for political gain. The hallmark is compassion and inclusiveness."

So she won't knock on doors for the Harris Tories, but she plans to door knock for Tim Hudak, who has openly emulated Mike Harris at every turn, including a shining endorsement from the man himself?

She says part of her strategy is compassion and inclusiveness, but Tim Hudak wants to disband the Ontario Human Rights Tribunal, was a loud supporter of faith-based funding, which would have set Ontario schools and multiculturalism back a generation. Tim Hudak voted for Bill 91 back in 1996, which would have greatly interfered with a woman's right to choose. Tim Hudak backed the Harris government de-listing from provincial health coverage sex reassignment surgery (which was disguised as being a tax-saving measure, but only saved mere cents from each citizens tax load).

On the last point, in 2007, Taylor had this to say:

"I would like to see the addition of language to the Human Rights Code to protect the trans group," she says. "As for surgery, everything I have heard suggests it should be supported. The party hasn't taken a stand but in terms of relisting the cost of each surgery may be high but the numbers are low. You can't listen to the stories and not feel compassion. There was something inherently unfair about the delisting."

The 2007 Pam Taylor was against moves to attack the status of human rights in this province, and was regretful of the de-listing made by the Harris Conservatives. The 2009 Pam Taylor evidently is going to cheerlead for her leader Tim Hudak to abolish the Human Rights Tribunal and use queer rights and activism as a fear-mongering tool to throw red meat to the Hillier/Klees social conservative wing of the party.

And thats not all.

Taylor says schools should educate students about queer realities.

"We need education within education," she says. "Most of the behaviour we see that we find regrettable comes from ignorance. We need to have part of curriculum be a place to talk about these issues. Supporting Our Youth will actually provide resources in doing that kind of work."


When it comes to queer seniors Taylor says the Conservatives would pay attention to their needs.

"I think we should be guided by what they tell us we need," she says. "One of the hallmarks of a John Tory government is listening. I've come and spent a lot of time at Church and Wellesley listening to people. We will need better long-term care, better drug plans. The trans population may need separate facilities."

The 2007 Taylor stood for gay rights. The 2009 Taylor seems to think the PC's should be setting an example by having the PC labour critic be Randy Hillier, who called Toronto Centre's previous MPP, the openly gay George Smitherman, a "bugger" during a debate at Queen's Park, and as Matt Guerin pointed out, has a long history of opposing queer rights:

http://queer-liberal.blogspot.com/2009/03/randy-hillier-stokes-anti-gay.html

It is of course relevant to point out, that in addition to Mike Harris, Tim Hudak was also endorsed by Randy Hillier.

The people of Toronto Centre deserve better than the socially regressive policies of Tim Hudak and the flip-flopping of Pam Taylor.

The Economist slams Harper over suspending democracy

With the words of Conservative MP Brent Rathgeber in mind; "Parliament and democracy are not being sidestepped - they are only suspended", these not one but two articles in The Economist, (that crazy left-wing rag which endorsed Harper in both 2006 and 2008) take on a special meaning:

http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15211862

The danger in allowing the prime minister to end discussion any time he chooses is that it makes Parliament accountable to him rather than the other way around...Canada cannot afford a part-time Parliament that sits only at the prime minister’s pleasure.

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15213212


Never mind what his spin doctors say: Mr Harper’s move looks like naked self-interest. His officials faced grilling by parliamentary committees over whether they misled the House of Commons in denying knowledge that detainees handed over to the local authorities by Canadian troops in Afghanistan were being tortured. The government would also have come under fire for its lack of policies to curb Canada’s abundant carbon emissions. Prorogation means that such committees—which carry out the essential democratic task of scrutinising government—will have to be formed anew in March...He bars most ministers from talking to the media; he has axed some independent watchdogs; he has binned campaign promises to make government more open and accountable. Now he is subjecting Parliament to prime-ministerial whim. He may be right that most Canadians care more about the luge than the legislature, but that is surely true only while their decent system of government is in good hands. They may soon conclude that it isn’t.

2010 early nomination news

http://www.saultstar.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=2249772

The Tories could have an interesting nomination battle in Sault Ste. Marie, with Bryan Hayes, a long-time city councillor saying he has his eyes on the nomination. This would bring him into potential conflict with city mayor John Rowswell, who has battled publically with NDP MP Tony Martin and has made his interest in the nomination well known. Rowswell isn't running for mayor again, which would free him up to pursue the federal nomination. This article: http://www.sootoday.com/content/news/full_story.asp?StoryNumber=43896 also gives a few more names for a potential Tory nomination battle, Dr. David Walde, the Director of the Oncology Program at Sault Area Hospital, and Ted Nolan, former NHL player and coach, who was rumoured to be considering a provincial run for the PC's back in 2003.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/tri_city_maple_ridge/mapleridgenews/news/80751932.html
2008 Liberal candidate Dan Olson says that despite a health scare, he intends to run for the Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission nomination again, and doesn't know of any challengers he could face.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/breaking_news/80749162.html
Sticking in the same riding, Mike Bocking, who has ran 3 times federally, and once provincially for the NDP in the area and come up short each time, sometimes by narrow margins, confirms that he will not run again and that the area NDP is looking for someone, with no names confirmed, which conflicts with earlier news that David Murray, a parks and services employee with the City of Port Coquitlam was seeking the nomination.

US study finds no impacts on property values from windmills: A boost for the Green Energy Act

http://www.wwnw.org/uploads/home/Impact%20of%20Wind%20Farms%20on%20Property%20Values%20ppt.pdf

Those who are opposed to the Green Energy Act (read: climate change denying PC's) have been hoping to damage the bold venture by relying on NIMBYism, the idea that people might be in favour of green energy tools like windmills on paper, but "not in my backyard". It is of supreme irony that NIMBYism was once in part associated with the environmental movement, but now has been hijacked by the other side of the debate. One of the trump cards of the anti-green energy movement has been the supposed impact of things like wind farms on local property values, and this in-depth report really takes apart this flawed concept. The report is well written and can easily be read by non-experts, so I think everyone who is interested in green energy development and programs should take a read.

Post Cop 15 nomination news

Been a long time since I did one of these.


http://www.kingsentinel.com/news/2009-12-16/Front_Page/Black_withdraws_from_federal_race.html

The Liberal candidate for Newmarket-Aurora, King mayor Margaret Black, has stepped down to focus on a sixth run for mayor. Black was nominated back in August. It will be interesting to see if candidates like Newmarket councillor Chris Emanuel and 2008 candidate and former Aurora mayor Tim Jones jump back into the race. They hadbeen in the running previously but both dropped out, clearing the way for Black to be acclaimed.

http://www.caledoncitizen.com/news/2009-12-17/News/Dufferin__Caledon_federal_Liberals_nominate_Bill_P.html

Bill Prout has been officially nominated for the Liberals in Dufferin-Caledon. Readers may remember former MP Garth Turner making a play for the Liberal nomination and subsequently dropping out in a characteristic huff.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/opinion/letters/78812472.html

This article mentions a name going for the NDP nomination in Langley, Piotr Majkowski, a registered nurse.